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Attribution analysis for the failure of CMIP5 climate models to simulate the recent global warming hiatus

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第2期60卷 397-408页

作者： WEI Meng qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266237 China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far. However, these models significantly overestimated global mean surface temperature （GMST） during 2006-2014. Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） method, the long term change of the observed GMST time series of HadCRUT4 records during 1850-2014 was analyzed, then the simulated GMST by 33 CMIP5 climate models was assessed. The possible reason that climate models failed to project the recent global warming hiatus was revealed. Results show that during 1850-2014 the GMST on a centennial timescale rose with fluctuation, dominated by the secular trend and the multi-decadal variability （MDV）. The secular trend was relatively steady beginning in the early 20th century, with an average warming rate of 0.0883℃/decade over the last 50 years. While the MDV （with a -65-year cycle） showed 2.5 multi-decadal waves during 1850-2014, which deepened and steepened with time, the alarming warming over the last quarter of the 20th century was a result of the concurrence of the secular wanning trend and the warming phase of the MDV, both of which accounted one third of the temperature increase during 1975-1998. Recently the slowdown of global warming emerged as the MDV approached its third peak, leading to a reduction in the warming rate. A comparative analysis between the GMST time series derived from HadCRUT4 records and 33 CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the GMSTs during the historical simulation period of 1850-2005 can be reproduced well by models, especially on the accelerated global warming over the last quarter of 20th century. However, the projected GMSTs and their linear trends during 2006-2014 under the RCP4.5 scenario were significantly higher than observed. This is because the CMIP5 models confused the MDV with secular trend underlying the GMST time series, which results in a fast se

关键词： Global warming hiatus Secular trend MDV CMIP5 climate models EEMD

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang qiao fangli Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

Effects of horizontal mixing on the upper ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第1期31卷 16-23页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

The influence of horizontal mixing on the thermal structure of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is examined based on a sigma coordinate model. In general, the distributions of the temperature and currents simulated by the sigma coordinate model are very close to the climatology. However, the simulated thermocline along the equator is slightly diffusive so that there is a cold bias above the main thermocline, while there is a warm bias under the main thermocline. Both horizontal diffusivity and viscosity have important effects on the upper thermal structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while their detailed dynamics are different. Horizontal diffusivity affects the thermal structure in the upper ocean mainly through regulating the vertical diffusivity, while the horizontal viscosity does mainly through regulating directly the circulate system. A large horizontal diffusivity or a small horizontal viscosity can be in favor of simulating a more realistically thermal structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

关键词： horizontal mixing thermal structure equatorial Pacific Ocean

Ocean temperature responses to Typhoon Mstsa in the East China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第4期27卷 26-38页

作者： WANG Guansuo qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Key Laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling （MASNUM） of State Oceanic Administration First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

The MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, with 21 layers in the vertical and （1/8） °horizontal resolution, was employed to investigate the oceanic responses to Typhoon Mstsa which traversed the East China Sea （ECS） during the period of 4 - 6 August, 2005. Numerical experiment results are analyzed and compared with observation. The responses of the sea surface temperature （SST）, in a focused area of （27° -29°N, 121° - 124°E）, include heating and cooling stages. The heating is mainly due to warm Kuroshio water transportation and downwelling due to the water accumulation. In the cooling stage, the amplitude of the simulated cold wake （ -3℃ ）, located on the right side of this typhoon track, is compared quite well with that of the satellite observed SST data. The wave-induced mixing（Bv） plays a key role for the SST cooling. Bv still plays a leading role, which accounts for 36%, for the ocean temperature drop in the upper ocean of 0 - 40 m, while the upwelling is responsible for 84% of the cooling for the lower layer of 40 - 70 m. The mixed layer depth （MLD） increased quickly from 28 to 50 m in the typhoon period. However, the simulated MLD without the wave-induced vertical mixing, evolution from 13 to 32 m, was seriously underestimated. The surface wave is too important to be ignored for the ocean responses to a typhoon.

关键词： typhoon wave-induce mixing ocean temperature response

Observation of atmospheric methane in the Arctic Ocean up to 87° north

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第1期60卷 173-179页

作者： ZHANG Min qiao fangli SONG ZhenYa The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266237 China Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

Although the Arctic methane reservoir is large,the emission of methane from the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere remains poorly *** ship-borne measurements of atmospheric methane near the surface ocean were carried out during two cruises to investigate methane emission from the Arctic Ocean up to the latitude of 87°***-day air mass back trajectories along the cruise tracks indicated that the surface Arctic Ocean could be a potentially important source of methane to the *** bursts in methane concentration occurred mainly along the ocean frontal area,suggesting that frontal upwelling in the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean might contribute to methane emissions into the atmosphere.

关键词： Methane The Arctic Ocean Frontal upwelling

On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第11期59卷 2202-2212页

作者： BAO Ying qiao fangli SONG ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关键词： Accumulative contribution Pure contribution Climate model CO_2 emission

Instability analysis of three-dimensional ocean shear waves

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1996年第1期15卷 1-8页

作者： qiao fangli First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266003 China

Based on the continuously stratified quasi-geostrophic vorticity equation. the present paper analyses the instabilityof three-dimensional shear *** cause that most shear waves occur on the shelfside of strong current near the west boundaries of the oceans is presented. The growth rate of small perturbations relies on the stratification charctters, and a maximum value of growth rate exists for certain stratification.

关键词： Shear waves,instability analysis continuous stratificationn

安达曼海南部内孤立波生成与传播的三维数值模拟

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海洋科学进展 2024年第3期42卷 452-465页

作者：张培超王刚戴德君乔方利黄传江自然资源部第一海洋研究所山东青岛266061 自然资源部海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室山东青岛266061 山东省海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室山东青岛266061

安达曼海内孤立波频发且振幅较大,对海洋生态、海上活动等有重要影响。本文采用非静力近似的MIT通用环流模式(MITgcm),并结合遥感影像研究了安达曼海南部内孤立波的生成与传播过程。数值模拟结果表明,格雷特海峡、尼科巴群岛之间的水道... 详细信息

安达曼海内孤立波频发且振幅较大,对海洋生态、海上活动等有重要影响。本文采用非静力近似的MIT通用环流模式(MITgcm),并结合遥感影像研究了安达曼海南部内孤立波的生成与传播过程。数值模拟结果表明,格雷特海峡、尼科巴群岛之间的水道、苏门答腊岛北部陆坡以及苏门答腊岛东北部陆坡是安达曼海南部内孤立波的4个主要生成源地,与遥感影像结果一致。本文还利用敏感性数值实验探究了二维模拟、潮流强度、地形结构等对该海域内孤立波生成与传播的影响。数值实验中,安达曼海内孤立波传播速度在2.3~2.6 m/s,振幅最大可达70 m,背景潮流越强,所生成的内孤立波列中内孤立波的数量越多、振幅越大,但相邻内孤立波之间的时间间隔变短。局地地形敏感性研究还发现双海脊能增强内孤立波的振幅和流速,并且对生成的内孤立波数量有较大影响。

关键词：安达曼海内孤立波非静力近似

Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO_2 sink and pH change

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第5期31卷 87-97页

作者： BAO Ying qiao fangli SONG Zhenya College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic AdministrationQingdao 266061China

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios （called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs）. The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） for the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a （calculated by carbon） in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water （NADW）, and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water （AABW） along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.

关键词： ocean carbon cycle model air-sea CO 2 flux anthropogenic carbon pH value