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Early dynamics of transmission and projections of COVID-19 in some West African countries

Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 839-847页

作者： Jules-Clement Assob-Nguedia David Dongo pierre Evariste nguimkeu Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences University of DoualaCameroon Department of Mathematics&Computer Sciences Faculty of ScienceUniversity of DschangCameroon Department of Economics Andrew Young School of Policy StudiesGeorgia State UniversityUSA

The initial cases of novel coronavirus(COVID-19)were identified in most West African countries between late February and early March of *** it is only after March 15,2020 that the number of cases started rising significantly in these *** study analyzes the transmission dynamics of the outbreak in West Africa nearly 5 months after the effective *** focus on Cameroon,Ghana,Guinea and Nigeria,which are the four West African countries with the highest numbers of infected *** combine models of mathematical epidemiology and publicly available data to estimate the main disease transmission *** particular,we estimate the initial doubling time,the peak time,the peak rate,the final size and the short-term transmission forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic for these *** implications for the effectiveness of control measures and for assessing the potential impact on public health in West Africa are discussed.

关键词： dynamics doubling COV

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Interval Estimation for the Stress-Strength Reliability with Bivariate Normal Variables

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Open Journal of Statistics 2014年第8期4卷 630-640页

作者： pierre nguimkeu Marie Rekkas Augustine Wong Department of Economics Georgia State University Atlanta GA USA Department of Economics Simon Fraser University Burnaby Canada Department of Mathematics and Statistics York University Toronto Canada

We propose a procedure to obtain accurate confidence intervals for the stress-strength reliability R = P (X > Y) when (X, Y) is a bivariate normal distribution with unknown means and covariance matrix. Our method is more accurate than standard methods as it possesses a third-order distributional accuracy. Simulations studies are provided to show the performance of the proposed method relative to existing ones in terms of coverage probability and average length. An empirical example is given to illustrate its usefulness in practice.

关键词： Bivariate Normal Distribution Interval Estimation Likelihood Analysis Reliability

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