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The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2055-2066页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Adam ASCAIFE philip ebett Fei ZHENG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterDevon EX44QFUK International Center for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic *** study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast *** forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals *** explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(EAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River ***,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong *** observations,the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu *** model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these *** difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.

关键词： seasonal forecast Yangtze River rainfall western North Pacific subtropical high westerly jet

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