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Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Nick J.DUNSTONe Adam A.SCAIFe philip e.bett Met Office exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar skill exists for predicting the east Asian summer monsoon index(eASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted eASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast skill eASMI monthly mean rainfall east Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： philip e.bett Gill M.MARTIN Nick DUNSTONe Adam A.SCAIFe Hazel e.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an east Asian Summer Monsoon(eASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 eASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall east Asian Summer Monsoon

Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for east China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP philip e.bett Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HeWITT Timothy D.MITCHeLL Adam A.SCAIFe Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the east China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon *** forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in east China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in east China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in east China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk east China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services——examples in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 893-903页

作者： Chris D.HeWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Tyrone DUNBAR philip e.bett Joanne CAMP Timothy D.MITCHeLL edward POPe Met Office Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Beijing Climate Center/National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

关键词： climate services prototypes user engagement

The Seasonal Prediction of the exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2055-2066页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONe Adam ASCAIFe philip ebett Fei ZHeNG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterDevon EX44QFUK International Center for Climate and environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic *** study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast *** forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals *** explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the east Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(eAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the eAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River ***,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong *** observations,the eAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu *** model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these *** difference implies that the observed enhancement of the eAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.

关键词： seasonal forecast Yangtze River rainfall western North Pacific subtropical high westerly jet

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： philip e.bett Nicola MARTIN Adam A.SCAIFe Nick DUNSTONe Gill M.MARTIN Nicola GOLDING Joanne CAMP Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HeWITT Leon HeRMANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li ReN Ying LIU Min LIU Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an east Asian summer monsoon(eASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) east Asian summer monsoon(eASM)

erratum to: Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第9期37卷 1032-1032页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Nick J.DUNSTONe Adam A.SCAIFe philip e.bett Met Office ExeterDevon EX13PBUnited Kingdom

The article[Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin],written by[Gill ***,Nick ***,Adam ***,and philip ***],was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal on[1... 详细信息

关键词： Yangtze Middle Lower

MicroRNAs as potential biomarkers for diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

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Neural Regeneration Research 2024年第3期19卷 557-562页

作者： Bridget Martinez philip V.Peplow Department of Pharmacology University of Nevada-RenoRenoUSA Department of Medicine University of Nevada-RenoRenoUSA Department of Anatomy University of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand

Inappropriate levels of hyperactivity,impulsivity,and inattention characterize attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,a common childhood-onset neuropsychiatric *** cognitive function and learning ability of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder are affected,and these symptoms may persist to adulthood if they are not *** diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder is only based on symptoms and objective tests for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder are *** for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children include medications,behavior therapy,counseling,and education services which can relieve many of the symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder but cannot cure *** is a need for a molecular biomarker to distinguish attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from healthy subjects and other neurological conditions,which would allow for an earlier and more accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment to be *** expression of microRNAs is connected to brain development and disease and could provide novel biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of attention deficit hyperactivity *** recent studies reviewed had performed microRNA profiling in whole blood,white blood cells,blood plasma,and blood serum of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.A large number of microRNAs were dysregulated when compared to healthy controls and with some overlap between individual *** the studies that had included a validation set of patients and controls,potential candidate biomarkers for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children could be miR-140-3p,let-7g-5p,-30e-5p,-223-3p,-142-5p,-486-5p,-151a-3p,-151a-5p,and-126-5p in total white blood cells,and miR-4516,-6090,-4763-3p,-4281,-4466,-101-3p,-130a-3p,-138-5p,-195-5p,and-106b-5p in blood *** studies are warranted with children and adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,and

关键词： adults attention deficit hyperactivity disorder biomarkers blood plasma blood serum children microRNA total white blood cells whole blood

MicroRNAs as potential biomarkers for diagnosis of schizophrenia and influence of antipsychotic treatment

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Neural Regeneration Research 2024年第7期19卷 1523-1531页

作者： Bridget Martinez philip V.Peplow Department of Pharmacology University of Nevada-RenoRenoNVUSA Department of Medicine University of Nevada-RenoRenoNVUSA Department of Anatomy University of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand

Chara cterized by positive symptoms(such as changes in behavior or thoughts,including delusions and hallu cinations),negative symptoms(such as apathy,anhedonia,and social withdrawal),and cognitive impairments,schizophrenia is a chro nic,severe,and disabling mental disorder with late adolescence or early adulthood onset,Antipsychotics are the most commonly used drugs to treat schizophrenia,but those currently in use do not fully reverse all three types of symptoms characte rizing this *** is frequently misdiagnosed,resulting in a delay of or inappropriate *** expression of microRNAs is connected to brain development and disease and could provide novel biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of *** recent studies reviewed included microRNA profiling in blood-and urine-based materials and nervous tissue mate *** the studies that had validated the preliminary findings,potential candidate biomarkers for schizophrenia in adults could be miR-22-3p,-30e-5p,-92a-3p,-148b-5p,-181a-3p,-181a-5p,-181b-5p,-199 b-5p,-137 in whole blood,and miR-130b,-193a-3p in blood *** treatment of schizophrenia patients was found to modulate the expression of certain microRNAs including miR-130b,-193a-3p,-132,-195,-30e,-432 in blood *** studies are warranted with adolescents and young adults having schizophrenia and consideration should be given to using animal models of the disorder to investigate the effect of suppressing or overexpressing specific microRNAs.

关键词： antipsychotics biomarkers blood exosomes blood plasma brain tissue exosomes brain tissues leukocytes microRNAs neural stem cells olfactory neuroepithelium schizophrenia whole blood