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Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 136-150页

作者： Carl J.Schreck III Frederic Vitart Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp James Darlow Russell Elsberry Jon Gottschalck paul gregory Kurt Hansen Justyn Jackson Matthew A.Janiga Philip J.Klotzbach Chia-Ying Lee Lindsey Long Masuo Nakano Kazuto Takemura Yuhei Takaya Michael J.Ventrice Zhuo Wang Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies North Carolina State UniversityUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityUSA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Naval Postgraduate School USA Climate Prediction Center NOAAUSA hNational Research CouncilUSA U.S.Air Force USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Colorado State University USA ERT Inc.USA Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Japan Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan DRW Holdings USA University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign USA

This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientiﬁc community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Paciﬁc by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been *** has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal *** addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of *** of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its *** skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive veriﬁcation studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Paciﬁc.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Subseasonal Forecasts Hurricanes MJO

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan paul gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of Meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

A functional tacrolimus-releasing nerve wrap for enhancing nerve regeneration following surgical nerve repair

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第1期20卷 291-304页

作者： Simeon C.Daeschler Katelyn J.W.So Konstantin Feinberg Marina Manoraj Jenny Cheung Jennifer Zhang Kaveh Mirmoeini Jpaul Santerre Tessa Gordon gregory HBorschel SickKids Research Institute Neuroscience and Mental Health ProgramTorontoONCanada Institute of Biomaterials and Biomedical Engineering University of TorontoTorontoONCanada Indiana University School of Medicine IndianapolisINUSA Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery the Hospital for Sick ChildrenTorontoONCanada Translational Biology and Engineering Program Ted Rogers Centre for Heart ResearchInstitute of Biomedical EngineeringFaculty of DentistryUniversity of TorontoTorontoONCanada

Axonal regeneration following surgical nerve repair is slow and often incomplete,resulting in poor functional recovery which sometimes contributes to lifelong ***,there are no FDA-approved therapies available to promote nerve *** accelerates axonal regeneration,but systemic side effects presently outweigh its potential benefits for peripheral nerve *** authors describe herein a biodegradable polyurethane-based drug delivery system for the sustained local release of tacrolimus at the nerve repair site,with suitable properties for scalable production and clinical application,aiming to promote nerve regeneration and functional recovery with minimal systemic drug *** is encapsulated into co-axially electrospun polycarbonate-urethane nanofibers to generate an implantable nerve wrap that releases therapeutic doses of bioactive tacrolimus over 31 *** and drug loading are adjustable for applications in small and large caliber nerves,and the wrap degrades within 120 days into biocompatible *** released from the nerve wrap promotes axon elongation in vitro and accelerates nerve regeneration and functional recovery in preclinical nerve repair models while off-target systemic drug exposure is reduced by 80%compared with systemic *** its surgical suitability and preclinical efficacy and safety,this system may provide a readily translatable approach to support axonal regeneration and recovery in patients undergoing nerve surgery.

关键词： biodegradable local drug delivery nerve injury nerve regeneration nerve wrap tacrolimus

TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION ON SUBSEASONAL TIME-SCALES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 150-165页

作者： Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp Russell L.Elsberry paul A.gregory Philip J.Klotzbach Carl J.Schreck III Adam H.Sobel Michael J.Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C.Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi and Ruifen Zhan Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA Met Office ExeterUnited Kingdom Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate SchoolMontereyCA and TraumaHealthand Hazards CenterUniversity of Colorado-Colorado SpringsColorado SpringsCOUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoriaAustralia Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina(CICS-NC) North Carolina State UniversityAshevilleNCUSA Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA Weather Company/IBM AndoverMAUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUnited Kingdom Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of IllinoisUrbana-ChampagneILUSA Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTsukubaIbarikiJapan Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability and its *** has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales,and this effort has continued to make progress in recent *** the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO),other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales,in particular various equatorial ***,TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave *** has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC *** efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets,which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting *** there is positive skill in some cases,there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered,the basin examined,and whether the storms have extratropical influences or ***,the definition of skill differs among *** centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time.

关键词： tropical cyclones subseasonal forecasts hurricanes MJO

The Black-winged Monarch(Monarcha frater):Geographic variation,taxonomy,a"new"population,and an enduring mystery in migration

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Avian Research 2023年第3期14卷 467-477页

作者： Leo Joseph Julian Teh paul Sweet Phil gregory Australian National Wildlife Collection CSIRO National Research Collections AustraliaCanberra2601Australia American Museum of Natural History New YorkUSA Sicklebill Safaris TopazQueensland4885Australia

The Black-winged Monarch(Monarcha frater)inhabits low-mid elevation forests across New Guinea and far northeastern *** its four recognized subspecies,*** is migratory,breeding in tropical north-eastern Australia from approximately November–*** non-breeding range of ***,apart from some individuals overwintering in Australia,has been unknown for>100 *** from 194 New Guinean and Australian specimens and a literature review have not solved this mystery;the narrow latitudinal range of the intratropical migration may inhibit use of GPS loggers in resolving the migration *** work in central and western parts of southern New Guinea is *** data,however,revealed an essentially overlooked population in north-western New Guinea east of the Bird's Head Peninsula phenotypically indistinguishable from nominate *** of that *** genomic analysis of the complex will be largely done from toepad skin because frozen tissue samples for DNA analysis exist only of four individuals of what we suggest should be elevated to species rank as *** discuss how genomic analysis might distinguish among alternative taxonomic hypotheses of one,two or three *** suggest English names for what we consider to be three diagnosable taxa worth recognizing at species rank in this group:Arfak Monarch corresponding to ***(Bird's Head Peninsula and the“new”population of north-western New Guinea);Pearly Monarch for ***(Australia and still unknown non-breeding range),and Masked Monarch for ***(including kunupi,elsewhere in New Guinea).

关键词： Australia Migration monarch flycatcher Monarcha frater New Guinea Taxonomy

A Rare Case of Concordant Atrioventricular Connection to L-Looped Ventricles in Situs Solitus:4-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and 3D Printing

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Congenital Heart Disease 2022年第4期17卷 387-392页

作者： gregory Perens Takegawa Yoshida J.paul Finn UCLA Mattel Children’s Hospital Children’s Heart CenterLos AngelesCAUSA Diagnostic Cardiovascular Imaging Laboratory Department of Radiology12222 David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLALos AngelesCAUSA

An infant male presented with the rare anatomy consisting of situs solitus,concordant atrioventricular connections to L-looped ventricles,double outlet right ventricle(DORV),and hypoplastic aortic arch.6 months after neonatal aortic arch repair,the morphologic right ventricle function deteriorated,and surgical evaluation was undertaken to determine if either biventricular repair with a systemic morphologic left ventricle or right ventricular exclusion was *** initial echocardiography,magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)was used to create detailed axial and 4-dimensional(4D)images and 3-dimensional(3D)printed *** detailed anatomy of this rare,complex case and its use in pre-surgical planning is presented.

关键词： Magnetic resonance imaging cardiac segments 3D printing

Cool-season annual pastures with clovers to supplement wintering beef cows nursing calves

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Journal of Animal Science and Biotechnology 2012年第4期3卷 221-226页

作者： Stacey A Gunter Whitney A Whitworth T gregory Montgomery paul A Beck United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Southern Plains Range Research Station University of Arkansas at Monticello Division of Agriculture Southeast Research & Extension Center University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Southwest Research & Extension Center University of Arkansas

In December of 3 years, 87 beef cows with nursing calves （.594 ± 9.8 kg; calving season, September to November） at side were stratified by body condition score, body weight, cow age, and calf gender and divided randomly into 6 groups assigned to 1 of 6 cool-season annual pastures （0.45 ha/cow） that had been interseeded into a dormant common bermudagrass （Cynodon dactylon [L.] Pers.）/bahiagrass （Paspalum notatum Flugge） sod. Pastures contained 1 of the following 3 seeding mixtures （2 pastures/mixture）： 1） wheat （Triticum aestivurn L.） and ryegrass （Lofium multiflorum Lain., WRG）, 2） wheat and ryegrass plus red clover （Trifolium pretense L, WRR）, or 3） wheat and ryegrass plus white （Trifofium repens L.） and crimson clovers （Trifolium incarnatum L., WRW）. All groups had ad libitum access to grass hay （12% crude protein; 58% total digestible nutrients）. The second week in December, cow estrous cycles were synchronized and artificially inseminated. In late December, a bull was placed with each group for 60-d. Data were analyzed with an analysis of variance using a mixed model containing treatment as the fixed effect and year as the random effect. Body weight and condition scores did not differ （P ≥ 0.27） among cows between February and June. Calf birth weights or average daily gain did not differ （P≥ 0.17） among treatments; however, calves grazing pastures with clovers did tend （P= 0.06） to weigh more than calves grazing grass only. Weaning weight per cow exposed to a bull was greater （P= 0.02） for WRR and WRW than WRG. Cows grazing winter-annual pastures containing clovers tended to wean more calf body weight per cow exposed to a bull than cows grazing the grass only pastures.

关键词： Annual ryegrass Beef cows Clovers Nitrogen Pasture 1

Applying Earth Observation Technologies to Economic Consequence Modeling:A Case Study of COVID‑19 in Los Angeles County,California

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 18-31页

作者： Fynnwin Prager Marina T.Mendoza Charles K.Huyck Adam Rose paul Amyx gregory Yetman Kristy F.Tiampo California State University Dominguez HillsCarsonCA 90747USA ImageCat Inc.Long BeachCA 90802USA University of Southern California Los AngelesCA 90015USA CIESIN–Center for International Earth Science Information Network Columbia UniversityPalisadesNY 10964USA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences(CIRES) University of Colorado BoulderBoulderCO 80309USA

Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the *** investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience *** applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case *** also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling *** found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact *** findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.

关键词： Computable general equilibrium models COVID-19 Disaster economic impacts Earth observation Economic consequence analysis Los Angeles County

A Transshipment Model of Seven-Up Bottling Company, Benin Plant, Nigeria

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American Journal of Operations Research 2019年第3期9卷 129-145页

作者： gregory Okiemute Agadaga Nsikan paul Akpan Department of Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science University of Port Harcourt Rivers State Nigeria

This research work seeks to model the distribution of 50 cl Pepsi soft drink as a transhipment problem. The transshipment problem is an extension of the traditional transportation problem which takes into account a multi-phase transport system in which the flows of goods and services are taken through an intermediate point (transhipment points) between the origin and the destination with varying objective functions. The main focus in this research was to obtain the minimum cost of transporting 10,000 crates of the product from the Benin plant (source) through deports (transshipment points) to the Sapele-Warri region (sinks) where the product is demanded. Data collected were analyzed using TORA Windows Version 2.00 software. The analysis shows that the minimum cost of transporting the product can be achieved if the product is shipped directly from the source to the sink. This forms that basis for the conclusions and recommendations of the research.

关键词： Transshipment Problem Linear Programming Problems (LPP) Pepsi Soft Drink Minimum Cost Benin Production Plant