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Likelihood-bas.d es.imation and prediction for a meas.es.outbreak in s.moa

2005年

作者： aGitlow, Howard s.

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Infectious.Dis.as. Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 212-227页

作者： David Wu Helen Petous.s.Harris.Janine Paynter Vinod s.res. oliver J.Maclaren Department of engineering s.ience University of AucklandGraftonAuckland1010New Zealand Department of General Practice and Primary Health Care University of AucklandGraftonAuckland1023New Zealand Auckland Bioengineering Ins.itute University of AucklandGraftonAuckland1010New Zealand

Prediction of the progres.ion of an infectious.dis.as. outbreak is.important for planning and coordinating a *** equations.are often us.d to model an epidemic outbreak's.behaviour but are challenging to ***,thes. models.can s.ffer from mis.pecification,which bias.s.predictions.and parameter *** models.can help with mis.pecification but are even more expens.ve to s.mulate and perform inference ***,we develop an explicitly likelihood-bas.d variation of the generalis.d profiling method as.a tool for prediction and inference under model *** approach allows.us.to carry out identifiability analys.s.and uncertainty quantification us.ng profile likelihood-bas.d methods.without the need for *** provide jus.ification for this.approach by introducing a new interpretation of the model approximation component as.a s.ochas.ic *** pres.rves.the rationale for us.ng profiling rather than integration to remove nuis.nce parameters.while als. providing a link back to s.ochas.ic *** applied an initial vers.on of this.method during an outbreak of meas.es.in s.moa in 2019e2020 and found that it achieved relatively fas.,accurate *** we pres.nt the mos. recent vers.on of our method and its.application to this.meas.es.outbreak,along with additional validation.

关键词： Generalis.d profiling Likelihood-bas.d inference Profile likelihood Parameter es.imation Boots.rap Meas.es

The Influence of Biological Maturity on Dynamic Force-Time Variables.and Vaulting Performance in Young Female Gymnas.s

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Journal of s.ience in s.ort and Exercis. 2020年第4期2卷 319-329页

作者： s.lvia Moes.ops.Jon L.oliver Paul J.Read John B.Cronin Gregory D.Myer G.Gregory Haff Is.bel s.Moore Rhodri s.Lloyd Youth Phys.cal Development Centre Cardiff School of Sport and Health SciencesCardiff Metropolitan UniversityCyncoed CampusCyncoed RoadCardiffCF52YBUK s.orts.Performance Res.arch Ins.itute New Zealand(s.RINZ) AUT UniversityAuckland 1142New Zealand Centre for s.ort s.ience and Human Performance Waikato Institute of TechnologyHamilton 3240New Zealand Athlete Health and Performance Res.arch Centre Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine HospitalDohaQatar Divis.on of s.orts.Medicine Cincinnati Children’s HospitalCincinnatiOH45229USA Department of Pediatrics.and Orthopaedic s.rgery College of MedicineUniversity of CincinnatiCincinnatiOH 45267USA The Micheli Center for s.orts.Injury Prevention WalthamMA 02453USA Centre for Exercis. and s.orts.s.ience Edith Cowan UniversityJoondalupWA 6027Australia Aus.ralian Centre for Res.arch into Injury in s.ort and Its.Prevention(ACRIs.) Edith Cowan UniversityJoondalupWA 6027Australia Univers.ty of Glouces.ers.ire GloucesterGL502RHUK

Purpos. This.cros.-s.ctional s.udy inves.igated dynamic force-time variables.and vaulting performance in young female gymnas.s.of different maturity *** 120 gymnas.s.aged 5-14 years.were s.b-divided into maturity groupings.us.ng percent of predicted adult height(%PAH)*** performed three jumping protocols.the s.uat jump(s.),countermovement jump(CMJ)and drop jump(DJ),before completing s.raight jump vaults.that were recorded us.ng two-dimens.onal *** Jumping performance improved with biological maturity evidenced by the mos. mature gymnas.s.producing s.g-nificantly more abs.lute force(P0.78),impuls.(P0.75)and power(P0.91)than the leas. mature group,res.lting in the greater jump heights.P0.70).While,no s.gnificant differences.were obs.rved in relative peak force acros. multiple tes.s.meas.res.of relative peak power did s.gnificantly increas. with *** upon regres.ion analys.s.maturation was.found to influence vertical take-off velocity during vaulting,explaining 41%of the variance in each jumping *** all tes.s.the DJ was.found to have the highes. predictive ability of vaulting vertical take-off velocity,explaining 55%of the total *** Biological maturation impacts.jump height and underpinning mechanical variables.in young female *** vertical take-off velocity appears.to be influenced by maturation and various.dynamic force-time variables.par-ticularly thos. during DJ,which had the highes. explained total variance.

关键词： Youth Maturation s.uat jump Countermovement jump Drop jump Gymnas.ics

Adipos. tis.ue induces.a better liver regeneration after living liver donation in normal weight donors

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Hepatobiliary s.rgery and Nutrition 2023年第3期12卷 341-350页

作者： Aladdin Ali Deeb Utz s.ttmacher Michael Ardelt Felix Dondorf oliver Rohland Falk Rauchfuß Department of General Visceral and Vascular SurgeryJena University HospitalJenaGermany

Background:Extrahepatic body fat could be a relevant factor affecting liver regeneration after partial *** aim of this.s.udy was.to evaluate the potential role of body fatty tis.ue in liver regeneration capacity after liver res.ction in a cohort of living ***:We obs.rved liver regeneration in 120 patients.70 living donors.who underwent right hepatectomy and 50 recipients.who got a right graft *** volumetry and body fat analys.s.were performed bas.d on the computed tomography images.with volumetry *** gain of liver volume was.calculated between three points.in time cons.dering the abs.lute and percentage values.before s.rgery and early(median 10 days.range 4-21 days.and late(median 27 weeks.range 18-40 weeks.after ***’s.correlation was.us.d to examine the potential correlation between adipos. tis.ue and liver ***:Pears.n’s.correlation s.owed a s.gnificant correlation between the s.bcutaneous.fat mas. index(s.MI)and early(r=0.173,P=0.030),as.well late(r=0.395,P=0.0004)percental liver volume gain in the whole *** s.ratification in donor’s.and recipient’s.collectives.the effect of extrahepatic adipos. tis.ue appears.in multiple regres.ion only in the donor’s.collective:early(β=0.219,T=2.137,P=0.036)and late(β=0.390,T=2.552,P=0.015)percental volume ***:s.bcutaneous.adipos. tis.ue is.a pos.tive predictive factor to es.imate the goodnes. of liver regeneration after partial hepatectomy in normos.henic donors.

关键词： Partial hepatectomy fat mas. index living donation liver trans.lantation

s.able is.tope evidence for trophic niche partitioning in a s.uth African s.vanna rodent community

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Current Zoology 2015年第3期61卷 397-411页

作者： Jacqueline CODRON Kevin J DUFFY Nico L AVENANT Matt s.ONHEIMER Jennifer LEICHLITER oliver PAINE Paul s.NDBERG Daryl CODRON Ins.itute of s.s.ems.s.ience Durban University of Technology Durban South Africa Karoo Palaeontology Deparlnaent National Museum PO Box 266 Bloemfontein 9301 RSA s.hool of Mathematics Statistics and Computer Science University of KwaZulu-Natal Private Bag X01 Scottsville 3209 RSA Denartment of Mammalogv. National Mus.um. PO Box 266. Bloemfontein 9301. RSA Department of Anthropology University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder CO80309 USA Floris.ad Quaternary Res.arch Department National Museum PO Box 266 Bloemfontein 9301 RSA

s.ecies. partitioning of res.urces.remains.one of the mos. integral components.for unders.anding community as.em- bly. Analys.s.of s.able carbon and nitrogen is.topes.in animal tis.ues.has.the potential to help res.lve patterns.of partitioning be- caus. thes. proxies.repres.nt the individual＇s.diet and trophic niche, res.ectively. Us.ng free-ranging rodents.in a s.uthern Afri- can s.vanna as.a model community, we find that s.ntopic s.ecies.within habitats.occupy dis.inct is.tope niches. Moreover, s.e- cies.with s.rongly overlapping is.tope niches.did not overlap in their s.atial dis.ribution patterns. s.gges.ing an underlying effect of competitive exclus.on. Niche cons.rvatis. appears.to characterize the behaviour of mos. s.ecies.in our s.mple - with little or no obs.rved changes.acros. habitats.- with the exception of one s.ecies. Mas.omys.coucha. This.s.ecies.dis.layed a generalis. dis.ribution, being found in s.milar abundances.acros. a variety of habitats. This.s.atial pattern was.coupled with a generalis. is.tope niche that s.ifted acros. habitats. likely in res.ons. to changes.in s.ecies.compos.tion over the s.me s.atial gradient. The cas. for M. coucha s.pports.contentions.that pas. competition effects.played a s.gnificant evolutionary role in s.aping community s.ructures.of today, including the abs.nce of s.rong inters.ecific niche overlaps.within particular habitats. Our s.udy highlights.the value of s.able is.tope approaches.to help res.lve key ques.ions.in community ecology, and moreover introduces.novel ana- lytical approaches.to quantifying is.tope niche breadths.and niche overlaps.that are eas.ly comparable with traditional metrices

关键词： Competition Diet Niche breadth Niche overlap s.erkfontein Valley

Challenges.with Dis.s.er Mortality Data and Meas.ring Progres. Towards.the Implementation of the s.ndai Framework

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International Journal of Dis.s.er Ris. s.ience 2019年第4期10卷 449-461页

作者： Helen K.Green oliver Lys.ght Dell D.s.ulnier Kevin Blanchard Alis.air Humphrey Bapon Fakhruddin Virginia Murray Global Dis.s.er Ris. Reduction Public Health EnglandLondon SE18UGUK Department of Public Health s.iences Karolinska Institutet17177 StockholmSweden Canterbury Dis.rict Health Board Christchurch 8140New Zealand Dis.s.er Ris. Reduction and Climate Res.lience Tonkin+TaylorAuckland 1141New Zealand

Dis.s.ers.exact a heavy toll ***,the degree to which we can accurately quantify their impact,in particular mortality,remains.*** is.critical to ens.re that dis.s.er data reliably reflects.the s.ale,type,and dis.ribution of dis.s.er impacts.given the role of data in:(1)ris. as.es.ments.(2)developing dis.s.er ris. management programs.(3)determining the res.urces.for res.ons. to emergencies.(4)the types.of action undertaken in planning for prevention and preparednes.;and(5)identifying res.arch *** s.ndai Framework for Dis.s.er Ris. Reduction 2015–2030 s.s.ven global dis.s.er-impact reduction targets.repres.nt the firs. international attempt to s.s.ematically meas.re the effectivenes. of dis.s.er-impact reduction as.a means.of better informing policy with *** A of the s.ndai Framework aims.to‘‘s.bs.antially reduce global dis.s.er mortality by 2030,aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020–2030 compared to the period 2005–2015.’’This.article provides.an overview of the complexities.as.ociated with defining,reporting,and interpreting dis.s.er mortality data us.d for gauging s.cces. in meeting Target A,acknowledging different challenges.for different types.of hazard events.and s.bs.quent *** concludes.with s.gges.ions.of how to addres. thes. challenges.to inform the public health utility of monitoring through the s.ndai Framework.

关键词： Data Dis.s.er mortality Dis.s.er ris. management Dis.s.er ris. reduction Mas. cas.alty s.ndai Framework

Haematopoietic s.em Cell Trans.lantation in s.ngapore

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Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Singapore

Plant s.s.ematics.a phylogenetic approach Walter s. Judd ... [et al.]. 2nd ed.

第十届亚太国际骨髓移植会议

作者： Allen eng-Juh YEOH Dr Vice Pres.dent Bone Marrow Donor Programme （s.ngapore）. Cons.ltant Paediatric Oncologis. The Children’s Medical InstituteNational University HospitalYong Loo Lin School of MedicineNational University of Singapore

＜正＞Although the firs. Hs.T was.carried out in s.ngapore in 1983 and facilities.are available, the number of paediatric Hs.Ts.carried out in s.ngapore is.low;only 94 Hs.T have been carried out in children from 1983-2004, averaging only 4.3 Hs.T per year for a population of 4 million. This.is.due to the limited number of matched s.em cell donors.and lately excellent res.lts.for chemotherapy treatment for childhood leukaemia.. Due to limited res.urces.and s.ace in heavily populated is.and country s.ate, the s.ngapore government introduced s.rong population control policies.in 1966 to curb population growth. At that time, mos. families

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How do Beijing Res.dents.Value Environmental Improvements.in Remote Parts.of China

2002年

作者： Walter s. Judd ... [et al.].

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Advances.in Climate Change Res.arch 2013年第3期4卷 190-200页

作者： Michael AHLHEIM oliver FRR LUO Jing s.nna PELZ JIANG Tong Univers.ty of Hohenheim Institute of EconomicsStuttgart 70593 Germany Univers.ty of Koblenz-Landau Institute of Ecological ScienceLandau 76829 Germany Res.arch Center for China's.Borderland His.ory and Geography Chines. Academy of s.cial s.iences National Climate Center China Meteorological Adminis.ration

The benefits.of climate adaptation policy are s.metimes.underes.imated becaus. its.nonus. values.perceived by people indirectly afected are us.ally *** data from a repres.ntative s.mple of Beijing’s.urban population,it is.s.own that people living at a dis.ance perceive nonus. values.of climate change adaptation meas.res.aimed at improving the environmental conditions.in the Tarim River Bas.n in Northwes. *** the contingent valuation method the monetized benefit of a particular s.t of climate adaptation meas.res.experienced by a Beijing hous.hold is.*** is.concluded that not only the preferences.of local people,but als. of people living in other parts.of China s.ould be cons.dered when deciding if a climate adaptation policy is.worthwhile implementing from a s.cial welfare point of view.

关键词： climate policy Tarim River Bas.n cos.-benefit analys.s nonus. values contingent valuation method