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Integrative Zoology 2022年第2期17卷 328-329页

作者： nils chr.stenseth Professor of Ecology and Evolution at the Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) University of OsloNorway Professor of Marine Biology at the Centre for Coastal Research(CCR) University of AgderKristiansandNorway President of the International Society of Zoological Sciences

The past 2 years we now have behind us have demonstrated the importance of understanding the dynamics of zoonotic diseases in the wild and how the disease agents spill over to the human *** the end of 2021,Integrative Zoology published 2 special subsections on this topic,one of which focuses on plague—a zoonotic infectious disease which through history has ravaged the ***,caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis,continues to cause deaths among people.I am quite confident that we will not get rid of wildlife plague,but human plague epidemics might be history in the not too distant future(Baril et al.2019;Vallès et al.2020).

关键词： population Reflections

The Biological Consequences of Global Change

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Integrative Zoology 2010年第2期5卷 85-86页

作者： nils chr.stenseth Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiologyUniversity of OsloOsloNorway

ChangeClimate is currently *** changes will havea variety of effects on biological systems,at various lev-els spanning from the physiological to the ecosystem ***,among others,need to address the questionof how climate changes(and variation)affect biologicalprocess at these different levels of organization,and theyneed to do so in an integrated *** this view inmind,Integrative Zoology is pleased to present this spe-cial issue on“the biological consequences of globalchange.”This special issue is linked to a larger initiativeof the International Society of Zoological Sciences,namely,its flagship research program with the same title:the“Bio-logical Consequences of Global Change”(BCGC).Thisspecial issue is the first in a series of such issues:duringthe period 2010 to 2012 Integrative Zoology plan to pub-lish one such special issue per year.

关键词： sequences consequences Global

Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses

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Integrative Zoology 2007年第3期2卷 144-153页

作者： Zhibin ZHANG Zhenqing LI Yi TAO Min CHEN Xinyu WEN Lei XU Huidong TIAN nils chr.stenseth State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Laboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Department of Atmosphere College of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiologyUniversity of OsloOsloNorway.

Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human *** this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the ***,impacts of global climate variation(*** Nino and Southern Oscillation[ENSO])and global warming on plagues are largely *** cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis,we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871–2003 and the following climate factors(as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index[SOI],Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator[SST]and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere[NHT]).We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and ***-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods(2–3 years),medium periods(6–7 years)and long periods(11–12 years,30–40 years).Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI,but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2–4 years and approximately 8 years(6–10 years).These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in ***,there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.

关键词： El Nino/Southern Oscillation global climate variation human plague northern hemisphere air tempe rature sea surface temperature southern oscillation index.

Ecometrics:The traits that bind the past and present together

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Integrative Zoology 2010年第2期5卷 88-101页

作者： Jussi T.ERONEN P.David POLLY Marianne FRED John DAMUTH David C.FRANK Volker MOSBRUGGER christoph SCHEIDEGGER nils chr.stenseth Mikael FORTELIUS Department of Geosciences and Geography Helsinki UniversityFinland Department of Geological Sciences Indiana UniversityUSA ARONIA Research Institute atÅbo Akademi University and Novia University of Applied SciencesCoastal Zone Research TeamEkenäFinland Department of Ecology Evolution and Marine BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta BarbaraCaliforniaUSA Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL BirmensdorfSwitzerland Senckenberg Natural History Museum and Research Institute FrankfurtGermany Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiologyUniversity of OsloOsloNorway

We outline here an approach for understanding the biology of climate change,one that integrates data at multiple spatial and temporal ***-free trait analysis,or“ecometrics,”is based on the idea that the distribution in a community of ecomorphological traits such as tooth structure,limb proportions,body mass,leaf shape,incubation temperature,claw shape,any aspect of anatomy or physiology can be measured across some subset of the organisms in a *** of temporal or spatial scale,traits are the means by which organisms interact with their environment,biotic and *** measures these interactions by focusing on traits which are easily measurable,whose structure is closely related to their function,and whose function interacts directly with local *** trait distributions are thus a comparatively universal metric for exploring systems dynamics at all *** main challenge now is to move beyond investigating how future climate change will affect the distribution of organisms and how it will impact ecosystem services and to shift the perspective to ask how biotic systems interact with changing climate in general,and how climate change affects the interactions within and between the components of the whole biotic-physical *** believe that it is possible to provide believable,quantitative answers to these *** of this we have initiated an IUBS program iCCB(integrative Climate Change Biology).

关键词： community structure ecometrics integrative Climate Change Biology Taxon-free trait distribution

Evaluating the effectiveness of control measures in multiple regions during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

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Biosafety and Health 2021年第5期3卷 264-275页

作者： Zengmiao Wang Jason Whittington Hsiang-Yu Yuan Hui Miao Huaiyu Tian nils chr.stenseth State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Center for Global Change and Public HealthCollege of Global Change and Earth System ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100091China Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloOslo N-0315Norway Department of Biomedical Sciences Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life SciencesCity University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Department of Statistics College of Art and ScienceOhio State UniversityColumbusOH 43210USA

The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases rapidly grew since the SARS-CoV-2 virus was identified in late *** to the high transmissibility of this virus,more countries are experiencing the repeated waves of the COVID-19 ***,with limited manufacturing and distribution of vaccines,control measures might still be the most critical measures to contain outbreaks ***,evaluating the effectiveness of various control measures is necessary to inform policymakers and improve future *** addition,there is an ongoing need to enhance our understanding of the epidemiological parameters and the transmission patterns for a better response to the COVID-19 *** review focuses on how various models were applied to guide the COVID-19 response by estimating key epidemiologic parameters and evaluating the effectiveness of control *** also discuss the insights obtained from the prediction of COVID-19 trajectories under different control measures scenarios.

关键词： COVID-19 Models Application

Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics

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Fundamental Research 2022年第5期2卷 708-715页

作者： Xiaojun Geng Yaru Zhang Yongshuo H.Fu Fanghua Hao Ivan A.Janssens Josep Penuelas Shilong Piao Jing Tang Zhaofei Wu Jing Zhang Xuan Zhang nils chr.stenseth College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design(GIWP) Ministry of Water ResourcesBeijing 100053China Plants and Ecosystems Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium CREAF Cerdanyola del VallèsBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UABBellaterraBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain Pecking University Beijing100847China Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund UniversitySE22362 LundSweden Terrestrial Ecology Section Department of BiologyUniversity of CopenhagenDK2100CopenhagenDenmark Center for Permafrost(CENPERM) University of CopenhagenDK1350CopenhagenDenmark Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloN-0316 OsloNorway

Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes,albeit with large *** in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy,water and carbon balances at global *** this study,we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites,distributed across the northern hemisphere in China,Europe and the United States,to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity(S T,advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming)and correlation(R_(T),partial correlation coefficient)to temperature during the period *** all species and sites,we found that S_(T) decreased significantly by 0.15±0.02 d℃^(-1)°N^(-1),and R_(T) increased by 0.02±0.001°N^(-1)(both at P<0.001).The latitudinal patterns in R_(T) and S_(T) were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate,particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out *** results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.

关键词： Apparent temperature sensitivity Latitudinal pattern Leaf-out Temperate tree Climate change

Two become one:combination of two risk factors in a new glaucoma animal model

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Neural Regeneration Research 2024年第5期19卷 982-983页

作者： nils Kluge Sabrina Reinehr Experimental Eye Research Institute University Eye HospitalRuhr-University BochumBochumGermany

Glaucoma is a group of eye diseases characterized by progressive loss of retinal ganglion cells(RGCs)and optic nerve *** this process,the visual field is reduced,and blindness may ultimately ***,glaucoma is the second leading cause of blindness,with about 80 million people *** is a multifactorial disease and due to its complexity,the exact pathomechanisms are not fully understood ***,different risk factors,such as elevated intraocular pressure(IOP),age,or myopia,have been identified to date(EGS,2021).

关键词： elevated exact glaucoma

Controlling the reaction network of Ni/silica derived conversion of bio-oil surrogate guaiacol

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Carbon Resources Conversion 2024年第1期7卷 39-60页

作者： nils Kretzschmar Oliver Busse Markus Seifert Technische Universität Dresden Faculty of Chemistry and Food Chemistry01062 DresdenGermany

Replacing fossil carbon sources with green bio-oils is a promising route to switch to a sustainable chemical industry,although their high oxygen contents are *** hydrodeoxygenation is a favored route to upgrade bio-oils to renewable fuels and basic *** this work,we investigated Ni/SiO2 catalysts with differing metal dispersity in continuous mode conversion of guaiacol with a statistical experimental design for 250℃to 400℃,2 h up to 5 h time on stream(ToS)and subsequently different residence time besides other *** low temperature(250℃)promotes cyclohexanol formation from guaiacol,high temperature(400℃)inhibits hydrogenation,leading to phenol and *** medium temperature(340℃),the selectivity for cyclohexanone *** and cyclohexanone(KA-oil)are the industrial basis for polyamide ***,we clarified the role of 2-methoxycyclohexanol(2MC)in the reaction network towards KA-oil for continuous-mode *** analysis was used to predict and optimize product selectivity and yield,leading to the best yield of cyclohexanone/-ol at 327.5℃,low ToS,medium residence time,high particle dispersity,and medium hydrogen pressure(15 bar(g)).

关键词： Hydrodeoxygenation Design of experiments Bio-oil Nickel silica catalyst Continuous mode flow reactor KA-oil Cyclohexanol Cyclohexanone

Analyzing short time series data from periodically fluctuating rodent populations by thresholdmodels: A nearest block bootstrap approach

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Science China Mathematics 2009年第6期52卷 1085-1106页

作者： CHAN Kung-Sik TONG Howell stenseth nils chr Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of IowaIowa CityIA 52242USA Department of Statistics London School of Economics & the University of Hong KongHong KongChina Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiologyUniversity of OsloP.O.Box 1066 BlindernN-0316 OsloNorway

The study of the rodent fluctuations of the North was initiated in its modern form with Elton's pioneering *** scientific studies have been designed to collect yearly rodent abundance data,but the resulting time series are generally subject to at least two "problems":being short and *** explore the use of the continuous threshold autoregressive(TAR) models for analyzing such *** the simplest case,the continuous TAR models are additive autoregressive models,being piecewise linear in one lag,and linear in all other *** location of the slope change is called the threshold *** continuous TAR models for rodent abundance data can be derived from a general prey-predator model under some simplifying *** lag in which the threshold is located sheds important insights on the structure of the prey-predator *** propose to assess the uncertainty on the location of the threshold via a new bootstrap called the nearest block bootstrap(NBB) which combines the methods of moving block bootstrap and the nearest neighbor *** NBB assumes an underlying finite-order time-homogeneous Markov ***,the NBB bootstraps blocks of random block sizes,with each block being drawn from a non-parametric estimate of the future distribution given the realized past bootstrap *** illustrate the methods by simulations and on a particular rodent abundance time series from Kilpisjrvi,Northern Finland.

关键词： AIC continuous threshold autoregressive model non-nested hypotheses partial residual plots 62M10 62P10

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Rejoinder

Science China Mathematics 2009年第6期52卷 1111-1112页

作者： CHAN Kung-Sik TONG Howell stenseth nils chr

We are grateful to Professors Peter Hall, W.K. Li and Guodong Li for their illuminating discussions. In particular, we thank Professor Hall for pointing out his earlier joint work with

关键词： SETAR Rejoinder