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Impacts and risks of“realistic”global warming projections for the 21st century

Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第2期15卷 392-416页

作者： nicola scafetta Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.AngeloVia Vicinale Cupa Cintia2180126 NaplesNAItaly

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and *** to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from 1.3℃to 8.0℃by 2100,depending on the global climate model(GCM)and the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenario used for the *** climate-change hazards are estimated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises,respectively,more than 2.0℃and 3.0℃above pre-industrial *** studies,however,showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run“too hot”because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing,and that the high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely,***,the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk *** paper examines the impacts and risks of“realistic”climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and *** is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario(which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency)and empirically optimized climate *** to recent research,the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012–2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)(1.5℃

关键词： Climate change Climate models Shared socioeconomic pathways 21st-century climate projections Impacts and risks assessment

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Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records

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Geoscience Frontiers 2023年第6期14卷 191-209页

作者： nicola scafetta Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia21Naples 80126Italy

The role of the Sun in climate change is hotly *** studies suggest its impact is significant,while others suggest it is *** Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)supports the latter view and suggests that nearly 100%of the observed surface warming from 1850–1900 to 2020 is due to anthropogenic ***,the IPCC’s conclusions are based solely on computer simulations made with global climate models(GCMs)forced with a total solar irradiance(TSI)record showing a low multi-decadal and secular *** same models also assume that the Sun affects the climate system only through radiative forcing–such as TSI–even though the climate could also be affected by other solar *** this paper I propose three“balanced”multi-proxy models of total solar activity(TSA)that consider all main solar proxies proposed in scientific *** optimal signature on global and sea surface temperature records is assessed together with those produced by the anthropogenic and volcanic radiative forcing functions adopted by the CMIP6 *** is done by using a basic energy balance model calibrated with a differential multi-linear regression methodology,which allows the climate system to respond to the solar input differently than to radiative forcings alone,and to evaluate the climate’s characteristic time-response as *** proposed methodology reproduces the results of the CMIP6 GCMs when their original forcing functions are applied under similar physical conditions,indicating that,in such a scenario,the likely range of the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)could be 1.4℃to 2.8℃,with a mean of 2.1℃(using the HadCRUT5 temperature record),which is compatible with the low-ECS CMIP6 GCM ***,if the proposed solar records are used as TSA proxies and the climatic sensitivity to them is allowed to differ from the climatic sensitivity to radiative forcings,a much greater solar impact on climate change is found,along with a significant

关键词： Solar activity changes Solar variability climatic impact Global climate change and modeling Equilibrium climate sensitivity

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Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2023年第10期23卷 367-386页

作者： Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.J.Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates nicola scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim LászlóSzarka Víctor M.Velasco Herrera Hong Yan Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science(EPSS) SopronHungary Retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmöSweden Retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnológica NacionalColón 332San Nicolás(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Ionosfera Atmosfera Neutra y Magnetosfera(LIANM)Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologíaUniversidad Nacional de TucumánAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumánArgentina Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas—Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) 4000 TucumánArgentina Faculty of Geography Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway Professor Emeritus College of EarthOceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia21I-80126 NaplesItaly Retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromsøNorway Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacán04510México D.F.México State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China Department of Mathematics and Physics Shaoxing UniversityShaoxing 312000China

Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly *** Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data *** compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear *** argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution *** also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were ***,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et *** confirmed for all five ST data ***,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar-terrestrial relations Earth

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How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2021年第6期21卷 131-198页

作者： Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.John Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Sebastian Liming nicola scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim Laszlo Szarka Harry van Loon Victor M.Velasco Herrera Richard C.Willson 晏宏 Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmoSweden Retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comision de Investigaciones Cientlficas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnologica NationalColpn 332San Nicolas(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Fisica de la Atmosfera Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologlaUniversidad National de TucumanAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumanArgentina Instituto de Fisica del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientficas y Tecnicas-Universidad Nacional de Tucuman) 4000 TucumanArgentina Faculty of Geography LomonosovMoscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway College of Earth Oceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Institute for Hydrography Geoecology and Climate SciencesHauptstra/3e 476315 AgeriSwitzerland Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico nComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia2180126 NaplesItaly Retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromspNorway ELKH Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science 9400 SopronCsatkai utca 6-8Hungary Retired formerly National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacan04510Mexico D.F.Mexico Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor(ACRIM) CoronadoCA 92118USA State Key Laboratory of Loe

In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both *** different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the *** of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature *** standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier ***,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th *** each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares *** role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time *** all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so be

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar terrestrial relations (Sun:)sunspots Sun:faculae,plages

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