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Understanding diarrhoeal diseases in response to climate variability and drought in Cape Town, South Africa: a mixed methods approach

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第4期12卷 105-105页

作者： Tristan Taylor Lee Mohamed Aqiel Dalvie Martin Röösli Sonja Merten Marek Kwiatkowski Hassan Mahomed neville sweijd Guéladio Cissé Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Allschwil Switzerland University of Basel Basel Switzerland Centre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research School of Public Health University of Cape Town Cape Town South Africa Metro Health Services Western Cape Government: Health and Wellness Western Cape South Africa Division of Health Systems and Public Health Department of Global Health Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Pretoria South Africa

BackgroundThe climate of southern Africa is expected to become hotter and drier with more frequent severe droughts and the incidence of diarrhoea to increase. From 2015 to 2018, Cape Town, South Africa, experienced a severe drought which resulted in extreme water conservation efforts. We aimed to gain a more holistic understanding of the relationship between diarrhoea in young children and climate variability in a system stressed by water *** a mixed-methods approach, we explored diarrhoeal disease incidence in children under 5 years between 2010 to 2019 in Cape Town, primarily in the public health system through routinely collected diarrhoeal incidence and weather station data. We developed a negative binomial regression model to understand the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on incidence of diarrhoea with dehydration. We conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders in the fields of health, environment, and human development on perceptions around diarrhoea and health-related interventions both prior to and over the drought, and analysed them through the framework *** diarrhoeal incidence data, the diarrhoea with dehydration incidence decreased over the decade studied, e.g. reduction of 64.7% in 2019 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5–7.2%] compared to 2010, with no increase during the severe drought period. Over the hot dry diarrhoeal season (November to May), the monthly diarrhoea with dehydration incidence increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 4.5–10.3%) per 1 °C increase in temperature and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.7–3.5%) per 1% increase in relative humidity in the unlagged model. Stakeholder interviews found that extensive and sustained diarrhoeal interventions were perceived to be responsible for the overall reduction in diarrhoeal incidence and mortality over the prior decade. During the drought, as diarrhoeal interventions were maintained, the expected increase in incidence in the public health sector di

关键词： routine drought humidity

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