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World Journal of Hepatology 2015年第26期7卷 2676-2680页

作者： Amal Ahmed Mohamed Tamer A Elbedewy Magdy El-Serafy naglaa El-Toukhy Wesam Ahmed Zaniab Ali El Din Biochemistry Department National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Institute Internal Medicine Department Faculty of Medicine Tanta University Tropical Department National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Institute Hepatology Gastroenterology and Infectious Diseases Department Faculty of Medicine Benha University Internal Medicine Depart- ment Faculty of Medicine Ain Shams University

Hepatitis C virus(HCV) is a global challenge; 130-175 million are chronically infected. Over 350000 die each year from HCV. Chronic HCV is the primary cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC), and end-stage liver disease. Management of chronic HCV is aimed at preventing cirrhosis, reducing the risk of HCC, and treating extra hepatic complications. New treatments for chronic HCV has been devoted based on direct-acting antivirals, as pegylated interferon(peginterferon) is responsible for many side effects and limits treatment access. Sofosbuvir is the first compound to enter the market with Peginterferon-free combination regimens.

关键词： Hepatitis C Peginterferon Sofosbuvir Direct-acting

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Statistical Time Series Forecasting Models for Pandemic Prediction

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Computer Systems Science & Engineering 2023年第10期47卷 349-374页

作者： Ahmed ElShafee Walid El-Shafai Abeer D.Algarni naglaa F.Soliman Moustafa H.Aly Department of Electrical Engineering Faculty of EngineeringAhram Canadian University6th October CityGizaEgypt Security Engineering Lab Computer Science DepartmentPrince Sultan UniversityRiyadh11586Saudi Arabia Department of Electronics and Electrical Communications Engineering Faculty of Electronic EngineeringMenoufia UniversityMenouf32952Egypt Department of Information Technology College of Computer and Information SciencesPrincess Nourah bint Abdulrahman UniversityP.O.Box 84428Riyadh11671Saudi Arabia Electronics and Communications Engineering Department College of Engineering and TechnologyArab Academy for ScienceTechnology and Maritime TransportAlexandria1029Egypt

COVID-19 has significantly impacted the growth prediction of a pandemic,and it is critical in determining how to battle and track the disease *** this case,COVID-19 data is a time-series dataset that can be projected using different ***,this work aims to gauge the spread of the outbreak severity over ***,data analytics and Machine Learning(ML)techniques are employed to gain a broader understanding of virus *** have simulated,adjusted,and fitted several statistical time-series forecasting models,linearML models,and nonlinear ML *** of these models are Logistic Regression,Lasso,Ridge,ElasticNet,Huber Regressor,Lasso Lars,Passive Aggressive Regressor,K-Neighbors Regressor,Decision Tree Regressor,Extra Trees Regressor,Support Vector Regressions(SVR),AdaBoost Regressor,Random Forest Regressor,Bagging Regressor,AuoRegression,MovingAverage,Gradient Boosting Regressor,Autoregressive Moving Average(ARMA),Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages(ARIMA),SimpleExpSmoothing,Exponential Smoothing,Holt-Winters,Simple Moving Average,Weighted Moving Average,Croston,and naive ***,our suggested methodology includes the development and evaluation of ensemble models built on top of the best-performing statistical and ML-based prediction methods.A third stage in the proposed system is to examine three different implementations to determine which model delivers the best ***,this best method is used for future forecasts,and consequently,we can collect the most accurate and dependable predictions.

关键词： Forecasting COVID-19 predictive models medical viruses mathematical model market research diseases

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Effectiveness of hepatitis B virus vaccination program in Egypt:Multicenter national project

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World Journal of Hepatology 2015年第22期7卷 2418-2426页

作者： Iman I Salama Samia M Sami Zeinab Nabil Ahmed Said Manal H El-Sayed Lobna A El Etreby Thanaa M Rabah Dalia M Elmosalami Amany T Abdel Hamid Somaia I Salama Aida M Abdel Mohsen Hanaa M Emam Safaa M Elserougy Amal I Hassanain naglaa F Abd Alhalim Fatma A Shaaban Samia A Hemeda Nihad A Ibrahim Ammal M Metwally Community Medicine Research Department National Research Center Child Health Department National Research Center Micro--biology and Immunology Department Faculty of Medicine (for girls)Al-Azhar University Pediatrics Department Faculty of MedicineAin-Shams University Dermatology and Venereology Department National Research Center Environmental and Occupational Medicine Department National Research Center

AIM:To assess the effectiveness of hepatitis B virus(HBV) vaccination program among fully vaccinated ***:A national community based crosssectional study was carried out in 6 governorates representing Egypt. A total of 3600 children aged from 9 mo to 16 years who were fully vaccinated with HBV vaccine during infancy were recruited. Face to face interviews were carried out and sera were evaluated for hepatitis B surface antigen(HBsA g),anti-HBV core antibodies(total) and quantitative detection of hepatitis B surface antibody using enzyme linked immunoassays techniques. Samples positive to HBs Ag/anti-HBV core antibodies were subjected to quantitative HBV-DNA detection by real time polymerase chain reaction with 3.8 IU/L detection limit. RESULTS:Sero-protection was detected among 2059 children(57.2%) with geometric mean titers 75.4 ± 3.6 IU/L compared to 3.1 ± 2.1 IU/L among nonseroprotected children. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that older age and female gender were the significant predicting variables for having non seroprotective level,with adjusted odds ratio 3.3,9.1and 14.2 among children aged 5 to 0.05. C ON C LU S I ON :T he E gy pt ian c ompuls or y H B V vaccination program provides adequate protection. Occult HBV infection exists among apparently healthy vaccinated children. Adherence to infection control measures is mandatory.

关键词： Hepatitis B virus Immunization Seroprotection Brea

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