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Risk of Tropical Cyclones and Floods to Power Grids in Southeast and East Asia

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第4期15卷 494-507页

作者： Mengqi Ye Philip J.Ward nadia bloemendaal Sadhana Nirandjan Elco E.Koks Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HV AmsterdamThe Netherlands Deltares 2629 HV DelftThe Netherlands Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(KNMI) 3731 GA De BiltThe Netherlands

Power grids play a critical role in modern society, serving as the lifeline of a well-functioning economy. This article presents a first large-scale study on the risk estimation of tropical cyclone(TC)-induced winds and coastal floods, which can widely impact power grids in Southeast and East Asia. Our comprehensive risk model incorporates detailed infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap(OSM) and government power grid maps, along with global hazard maps and vulnerability curves. The results reveal that the estimated expected annual damages from TCs and coastal floods to OSM-mapped assets account for approximately 0.07%(0.00–0.38%) and 0.02%(0.00–0.02%) of the total GDP of the study area, respectively. We analyzed the main sources of uncertainty in the risk model and emphasized the importance of understanding asset *** results highlight the urgent need to strengthen power infrastructure to withstand the impacts of natural hazards, and the significance of reliable risk information for improving power grid design and planning. Focusing on developing more region-specific infrastructure data and vulnerability curves will improve the accuracy of risk estimation and provide valuable insights not only for the electricity sector but also for customers of other infrastructure systems that heavily rely on a stable supply of electricity.

关键词： Asset level Coastal foods Power grids Risk analysis Tropical cyclones Vulnerability curves

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An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 216-239页

作者： Suzana J.Camargo Hiroyuki Murakami nadia bloemendaal Savin S.Chand Medha S.Deshpande Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento Juan Jesús Gonz´alez-Alem´an Thomas R.Knutson I.-I.Lin Il-Ju Moon Christina M.Patricola Kevin A.Reed Malcolm J.Roberts Enrico Scoccimarro Chi Yung(Francis)Tam Elizabeth J.Wallace Liguang Wu Yohei Yamada Wei Zhang Haikun Zhao Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonNJUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderCOUSA Vrije University Amsterdam AmsterdamNetherlands Federation University Australia BallaratVictoriaAustralia Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Ministry of Earth SciencesPuneIndia Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y Cambio Clim´atico Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico(UNAM)Mexico CityMexico Spanish State Meteorological Agency(AEMet) MadridSpain National Taiwan University TaiwanChina Jeju National University JejuRepublic of Korea Iowa State University AmesIAUSA Stony Brook University Stony BrookNYUSA Met Office ExeterUnited Kingdom Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici BolognaItaly The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Old Dominion University NorfolkVAUSA Fudan University ShanghaiChina Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology YokohamaJapan Utah State University LoganUTUSA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology NanjingChina

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in 2018,improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones(TCs)and associated hazards and *** studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate *** modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings,including greenhouse gases and aerosols,on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time ***,there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic,and the limitations of observed TC *** projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models.A new paradigm,TC seeds,has been proposed,and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC *** studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity,such as snow cover and air-sea *** projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our *** and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers.

关键词： tropical climate variability

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