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Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity:A prediction study

引用

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1138-1150页

作者： Dustin T.Hill mohammed a.alazawi E.Joe Moran Lydia J.Bennett Ian Bradley Mary B.Collins Christopher J.Gobler Hyatt Green Tabassum Z.Insaf Brittany Kmush Dana Neigel Shailla Raymond Mian Wang Yinyin Ye David A.Larsen Department of Public Health Syracuse UniversitySyracuseNY13244USA Center for Environmental Health New York State Department of HealthAlbanyNYUSA CDC Foundation AtlantaGAUSA Department of Civil Structural and Environmental EngineeringUniversity at BuffaloBuffaloNYUSA School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Sustainability Studies DivisionStony Brook UniversityStony BrookNYUSA Institute for Advanced Computational Science Stony Brook UniversityStony BrookNYUSA New York State Center for Clean Water Technology Stony Brook UniversityStony BrookNYUSA School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook UniversityStony BrookNYUSA Department of Environmental Biology State University of New York College of Environmental Science and ForestrySyracuseNYUSA Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthUniversity at AlbanyRensselaerNYUSA Department of Civil Engineering College of Engineering and Applied SciencesStony Brook UniversityStony BrookNYUSA

Background:The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health *** amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for *** developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater ***:Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties,we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29,2020 to June 30,*** included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county,comorbidities,demographic variables,and holiday ***:Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to *** that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only,increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%.Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions(r¼0.77)with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000(95%CI¼[0.002,0.025])Interpretation:Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data *** lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.

关键词： COVID-19 hospitalizations Wastewater-based epidemiology Forecasting Prediction SARS-CoV-2

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