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Using data from‘visible’populations to estimate the size and importance of‘hidden’populations in an epidemic:A modelling technique

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 798-813页

作者： Anna M.Foss Holly J.Prudden Kate M.Mitchell michael pickles Reynold Washington Anna E.Phillips Michel Alary Marie-Claude Boily Stephen Moses Charlotte H.Watts Peter T.Vickerman Department of Global Health and Development and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine15-17 Tavistock PlaceLondonWC1H 9SHUK Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology School of Public HealthImperial College LondonMedical School BuildingSt Mary’s CampusNorfolk PlaceLondonW21PGUK St John’s Research Institute 100 Feet RoadJohn NagarKoramangalaBangalore560034KarnatakaIndia Department of Community Health Sciences Max Rady College of MedicineRady Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of ManitobaS113-750 Bannatyne AvenueWinnipegManitobaR3E 0W3Canada Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec-UniversitéLaval 1050 Chemin Ste-FoyQuébec(Qc)G1S 4L8Canada Département de médecine sociale et préventive Facultéde médecineUniversitéLaval1050avenue de la MédecineQuébec(Qc)G1V 0A6Canada

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women(MSM/TGW)in Bangalore,mainly collected from‘hot-spot’locations that attract MSM/TGW,to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample.A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed,incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW,grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role(insertive,receptive or versatile).Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for‘balancing’numbers of partners and role preferences,we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more‘hidden’insertive MSM subpopulation,and explored their potential importance for the HIV *** for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys(4.5e6.5%versus 13.1%),but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger(61e69%of all MSM/TGW versus 15%).We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10e20%of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged *** modelling can be used with data on‘visible’MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of‘hidden’MSM.A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV *** broadly,a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups,has the potential to contain more infections,if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size.

关键词： HIV Infectious diseases Mathematical modelling Men who have sex with men Transgender women India

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