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extrapolating plot-scale CO_(2) and ozone enrichment experimental results to novel conditions and scales using mechanistic modeling

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ecological Processes 2018年第1期7卷 348-367页

作者： eric J.Gustafson mark e.kubiske Brian R.Miranda Yasutomo Hoshika elena Paoletti Institute for Applied ecosystem Studies Northern Research StationUSDA Forest Service5985 Highway KRhinelanderWIUSA Institute of Sustainable Plant Protection National Council of ResearchVia Madonna del Piano 1050019 Sesto FiorentinoItaly

Introduction:The Aspen-FACe experiment was an 11-year study of the effect of elevated CO_(2) and ozone(alone and in combination)on the growth of model aspen communities(pure aspen,aspen-birch,and aspen-maple)in the field in northern Wisconsin,*** remains about how these short-term plotlevel responses might play out over broader temporal and spatial scales where climate change,competition,succession,and disturbances interact with tree-level *** this study,we used a new physiologybased approach(PneT-Succession v3.1)within the forest landscape model LANDIS-II to extrapolate the FACe results to broader temporal scales(and ultimately to landscape scale)by mechanistically accounting for the globally changing drivers of temperature,precipitation,CO_(2),and *** added novel algorithms to the model to mechanistically simulate the effects of ozone on photosynthesis through ozone-induced impairment of stomatal control(i.e.,stomatal sluggishness)and damage of photosynthetic capacity at the chloroplast ***:We calibrated the model to empirical observations of competitive interactions on the elevated CO_(2) and O_(3) plots of the Aspen-FACe experiment and successfully validated it on the combined factor *** used the validated model to extend the Aspen-FACe experiment for 80 *** only aspen clones competed,we found that clone 271 always dominated,although the ozone-tolerant clone was co-dominant when ozone was *** all treatments,when aspen clone 216 and birch competed,birch was always dominant or co-dominant,and when clone 216 and maple competed,clone 216 was dominant,although maple was able to grow steadily because of its shade *** also predicted long-term competitive outcomes for novel assemblages of taxa under each treatment and discovered that future composition and dominant taxa depend on treatment,and that short-term trends do not always persist in the long ***:We identified the strengths and weakne

关键词： Scaling Global change elevated CO_(2) Ozone pollution Aspen-FACe Forest composition Carbon dynamics Forest landscape modeling LANDIS-II PneT-succession

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erroneous use of Statistics behind Claims of a Major Solar Role in Recent Warming

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2022年第12期22卷 224-231页

作者： mark T.Richardson Rasmus e.Benestad Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCA 91109USA Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFt CollinsCO 90732USA Norwegian Meteorological Institute NO-0313 OsloNorway

In a study that attempted to relate solar and human activity to earth's recent temperature change,Connolly et *** a basic error in the choice of statistical methods and so overreported the effect of the Sun.A major theme of their study was that there are many data sets of past solar activity,and some of these allegedly provide statistical evidence of“most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity.”We avoid methods that are known to give inaccurate results and show that for 1970–2005 Northern Hemisphere land the corrected solar attribution fraction is-7%to+5%,compared with values of up to 64%reported in Connolly et *** higher values are entirely due to mistaken application of ***,we cannot test truly“recent”global warming since most of their solar data sets end before 2015,and two finish in the 1990s,but all tested post-1970 periods show similarly small solar *** solar-climate linkage is an area of fascinating and ongoing research with rigorous technical *** argue that instead of repeating errors,they should be acknowledged and corrected so that the debate can focus on areas of legitimate scientific uncertainty.

关键词： earth (Sun:)solar-terrestrial relations Physical Data and Processes

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Quantifying cold front induced water transport of a bay with in situ observations using manned and unmanned boats

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第11期37卷 1-7页

作者： WeeKS eddie ROBINSON mark e LI Chunyan Coastal Studies Institute Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences Louisiana State University Department of Geography and Anthropology Louisiana State University

The generation of high-resolution data is increasingly important in understanding the complexities of coastal ocean and developing sound management strategies, especially in view of the long-term impact of severe weather systems. The impact of severe weather systems, when integrated over time, can be significant when compared with tidal oscillations. This paper presents a study of water transport out of Vermilion Bay in response to a short, intense event associated with a passing atmospheric cold front, and reports the application of an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler （ADCP） mounted on an Automated Surface Craft （ASC）, known as the auto-boat or unmanned boat, developed in our lab at the Louisiana State University, to generate high resolution data accurately at a fraction of the cost of a manned boat. In our study, we used a manned boat and an unmanned boat, each for over 24 h to cover an entire diurnal tidal cycle, to measure flow velocity profiles to calculate the total transport. A stationary ADCP was deployed in the Southwest Pass of the Vermilion Bay from May 2009 to April 2012, providing data almost continuously （with only one major gap）, with a 717-day record of water transport between the northern Gulf of Mexico and Vermilion Bay, and demonstrates the importance of the pass in water transport.

关键词： cold fronts unmanned boat Vermillion Bay Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler surveys regression on transport

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Dispersal behavior correlates with personality of a North American fish

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Current Zoology 2012年第2期58卷 260-270页

作者： Josh e. RASMUSSeN mark C. BeLK U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Klamath Falls OR 97603 USA Department of Biology Brigham Young University Provo UT 84602 USA

The process of dispersal is determined by the interaction of individual （intrinsic） traits and environmental （extrinsic） factors. Although many studies address and quantify dispersal, few evaluate both intrinsic and extrinsic factors jointly. We test the relative importance of intrinsic traits （exploration tendency and size） and extrinsic factors （population density and habitat quality） on dispersal of a medium-sized western United States minnow, southern leatherside chub Lepidomeda aliciae. A generalized linear model with a binomial response was used to determine the probability of individuals dispersing one year after tagging. Medium-sized individuals that were more prone to explore novel environments were 10.7 times more likely to be recaptured outside of their original capture area after a year （dispersal） compared to non-explorer individuals of the same size class. Differences be- tween explorer classifications within the small and large size classes were negligible. Open habitat within 50 m upstream also in- creased the probability of dispersal relative to controls. Relative location within the study reach, and population density were not significantly related to dispersal probabilities of individuals. Our results indicate that understanding of personality may illuminate patterns of dispersal within and among populations

关键词： Temperament Behavioral phenotype exploration Lepidomeda Personality-dependent

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Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wild-fire management

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Forest ecosystems 2015年第2期2卷 57-66页

作者： David e Calkin Matthew P Thompson mark A Finney Forestry Sciences Laboratory US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the Wildland Urban Interface （WUI） along with increased demand on water resources originating on forested landscapes. These increased demands have put substantial pressure on federal agencies charged with wildfire management to continue and expand the century old policy of aggressive wildfire suppression. However, aggressive wildfire suppression is one of the major factors that drive the increased extent, intensity, and damage associated with the small number of large wildfires that are unable to be suppressed. In this paper we discuss the positive feedback loops that lead to demands for increasing suppression response while simultaneously increasing wildfire risk in the future. Despite a wealth of scientific research that demonstrates the limitations of the current management paradigm pressure to maintain the existing system are well entrenched and driven by the existing social systems that have evolved under our current management practice. Interestingly, US federal wildland fire policy provides considerable discretion for managers to pursue a range of management objectives however, societal expectations and existing management incentive structures result in policy implementation that is straining the resilience of fire adapted ecosystems and the communities that reside in and adjacent to them.

关键词： Wildfire suppression Wildfire paradox Wildland urban interface Resilience

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Natural Resources Depletion in Hill Areas of Bangladesh:A Review

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Journal of Mountain Science 2012年第2期9卷 147-156页

作者： Shampa BISWAS mark e.SWANSON Harald VACIK School of environmental Sciences and Management Independent University School of the environment PO Box 646410Washington State University Institute of Silviculture Department of Forest and Soil SciencesUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences

Hilly or mountainous terrain occupies around 12% of the area of *** resources associated with Bangladesh's hill are forest resources,biodiversity,minerals,and agricultural *** resources have been exploited in the recent four decades due to excessive clearing of hill forest cover,resulting in loss of species richness, impacts related to increased water flow variability, increased hill slope erosion and flooding intensity, and a gradual decrease in the extent of hill area in *** review explores the major causes and effects of depletion of natural resources by linking drivers,pressures and the related impacts.A review has been conducted to structure the effects on the hilly areas and describe the responses to minimize them in the associated DPSIR *** growth has been identified as a major driver contributing to high deforestation *** may negatively effect agricultural productivity and increase the frequency of serious *** and burn cultivation also impacts the regeneration of evergreen forests,which may accelerate soil erosion. Due to this and other factors,local people are facing a deficits of natural resources(food,fodder,fuel wood and water),which exacerbates the effects of poverty. Future research should try to facilitate decision making for sustainable utilization of natural resources management in the hilly areas of Bangladesh. Additional conservation measures should be developed to increase the resilience of ecosystems at national and regional levels.

关键词： Hill environment Deforestation Land degradation Hill restoration and conservation DPSIR

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Forging an easier path through graduation:Improving the patient transition from paediatric to adult critical care

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World Journal of Critical Care Medicine 2025年第1期14卷 82-90页

作者： Stephen Warrillow Ben Gelbart Jess Stevens Gordon Baikie mark e Howard Department of Intensive Care Austin HealthHeidelberg 3084VictoriaAustralia Department of Critical Care The University of MelbourneParkville 3010VictoriaAustralia Department of Intensive Care Royal Children’s HospitalParkville 3010VictoriaAustralia Living with Disability Research Centre La Trobe UniversityBundoora 3086VictoriaAustralia Department of Neurodevelopment&Disability Royal Children’s HospitalParkville 3010VictoriaAustralia Department of Paediatrics The University of MelbourneParkville 3010VictoriaAustralia Department of Respiratory and Sleep Medicine Austin HealthHeidelberg 3084VictoriaAustralia Department of Medicine Austin HealthThe University of MelbourneHeidelberg 3084VictoriaAustralia

Adolescence and the journey to adulthood involves exciting opportunities as well as psychosocial stress for young people growing *** normal experiences are potentially magnified for teenagers living with chronic illness or disability and their *** in care have improved survival for children with a variety of serious chronic medical conditions such that many who may once have died in childhood now survive well into adulthood with ongoing *** those with highly complex needs,care is often provided at major paediatric hospitals with expertise,specially trained personnel,and resources to support young people and their families for the first decades of *** the end of adolescence,however,it is generally appropriate and necessary for young adults and their caregivers to transition to the care of clinicians trained in the care of adults at general *** there are some well-managed models to support this journey of transition,these are often specific to certain conditions and usually do not involve intensive *** patients may encounter considerable challenges during this *** may include the loss of established therapeutic relationships,a perception of austerity and reduced amenity in facilities oriented to caring for adult patients,and care by clinicians with less experience with more common paediatric *** addition,there is a risk of potential conflict between clinicians and families regarding goals of care in the event of a critical illness when it occurs in a young adult with major disability and long-term health *** challenges present genuine opportunities to better understand the transition from paediatric to adult-based care and to improve processes that assist clinicians who support patients and families as they shift between healthcare settings.

关键词： Paediatric intensive care Disability Adult intensive care Transition Critical care

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Does aspirin or non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use prevent colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease?

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2016年第13期22卷 3679-3686页

作者： Nick e Burr mark A Hull Venkataraman Subramanian Leeds Institute for Biomedical and Clinical Sciences St James' s University Hospital University of Leeds

AIM: To determine whether aspirin or non-aspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs(NA-NSAIDs) prevent colorectal cancer(CRC) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).MeTHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched for articles reporting the risk of CRC in patients with IBD related to aspirin or NANSAID use. Pooled odds ratios(OR) and 95%CIs were determined using a random-effects model. Publication bias was assessed using Funnel plots and egger's test. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q and the I2 ***: eight studies involving 14917 patients and 3 studies involving 1282 patients provided data on the risk of CRC in patients with IBD taking NA-NSAIDs and aspirin respectively. The pooled OR of developing CRC after exposure to NA-NSAIDs in patients with IBD was 0.80(95%CI: 0.39-1.21) and after exposure to aspirin it was 0.66(95%CI: 0.06-1.39). There was significant heterogeneity(I2 > 50%) between the studies. There was no change in the effect estimates on subgroup a na ly s e s o f t he po pulat io n s t udie d o r w he t he r adjustment or matching was ***: There is a lack of high quality evidence on this important clinical topic. From the available evidence NA-NSAID or aspirin use does not appear to be chemopreventative for CRC in patients with IBD.

关键词： Inflammatory bowel disease Aspirin Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory Colorectal cancer Chemoprevention

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effects of overburden characteristics on dynamic failure in underground coal mining

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International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 2017年第1期27卷 121-129页

作者： Lawson Heather e. Tesarik Douglas Larson mark K Abraham Habte NIOSH Office of Mine Safety and Health ResearchGround Control BranchSpokane WA 99207USA

Dynamic failures, or ‘‘bumps", remain an imperative safety concern in underground coal mining, despite significant advancements in engineering controls. The presence of spatially discrete, stiff roof units are one feature that has been linked to these events. However, an empirical stratigraphic review indicates that no significant difference exists in the relative commonality of discrete units between bumping and non-bumping deposits. Instead an apparent relationship exists between reportable bumping and the overall stiffness of the host rock. However, this initial study is too simplistic to be conclusive; to weight the relative impact of changes in a single variable, such as the thickness or location of sandstone members, it must be examined in isolation—i.e., in a setting where all other variables are held *** modelling provides this setting, and the effects of variability in a stiff discrete member in a hypothetical longwall mining scenario are investigated within the context of three stratigraphic ‘‘types",Compliant, Intermediate and Stiff. A modelling experiment examines changes in rupture potential in stiff roof units for each stratigraphic type as discrete unit thickness and location are manipulated through a range of values. Results suggest that the stiff-to-compliant ratio of the host rock has an impact on the relative stress-inducing effects of discrete stiff members. In other words, it is necessary to consider both the thickness and the distance to the seam, within the context of the host rock, to accurately anticipate areas of elevated rupture-induced hazard; acknowledging the presence of a discrete unit within the overburden in general terms is an insufficient indicator of risk. This finding helps to refine our understanding of the role of individual stiff, strong roof members in bumping phenomena, and suggests that a holistic view of overburden lithology and site-specific numerical modelling may be necessary to improve miner safety.

关键词： Dynamic failure Coal mining Bumps Bounces

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Applying robust design to study the effects of stratigraphic characteristics on brittle failure and bump potential in a coal mine

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International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 2018年第1期28卷 137-144页

作者： Bo-Hyun Kim mark K.Larson Heather e.Lawson Spokane Mining Research Division NIOSH/CDC

Bumps and other types of dynamic failure have been a persistent, worldwide problem in the underground coal mining industry, spanning *** example, in just five states in the *** 1983 to 2014,there were 388 reportable *** significant advances in mine design tools and mining practices,these events continue to *** conditions have been associated with bump potential, such as the presence of stiff units in the local *** effect of a stiff sandstone unit on the potential for coal bumps depends on the location of the stiff unit in the stratigraphic column, the relative stiffness and strength of other structural members, and stress concentrations caused by *** study describes the results of a robust design to consider the impact of different lithologic risk factors impacting dynamic failure *** the inherent variability of stratigraphic characteristics in sedimentary formations,such as thickness, engineering material properties, and location, is significant and the number of influential parameters in determining a parametric study is large, it is impractical to consider every simulation case by varying each parameter ***, to save time and honor the statistical distributions of the parameters, it is necessary to develop a robust design to collect sufficient sample data and develop a statistical analysis method to draw accurate conclusions from the collected *** this study,orthogonal arrays, which were developed using the robust design, are used to define the combination of the(a) thickness of a stiff sandstone inserted on the top and bottom of a coal seam in a massive shale mine roof and floor,(b) location of the stiff sandstone inserted on the top and bottom of the coal seam,and(c) material properties of the stiff sandstone and contacts as interfaces using the 3-dimensional numerical model, *** completion of the numerical experiments, statistical and multivariate analysis are performed using

关键词： Bumps Robust design FLAC3D Plastic dissipated energy Multiple regression

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