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仿射死亡率模型长期预测的优化与分析

Long-term chorioretinal changes following strabismus surgery——possible occult needle penetration

统计与精算 2024年第1期

作者：李玉龙 michael Sherris Andres m.villegas Jonathan Ziveyi

死亡率建模与预测是精算科学的重要基础，而仿射死亡率模型作为一种经典的连续时间随机模型被大量地应用于评估系统性死亡率的发展，其中模型构建的一种常用方法是卡尔曼滤波算法。本文针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法在建模过程中自动忽略近期... 详细信息

死亡率建模与预测是精算科学的重要基础，而仿射死亡率模型作为一种经典的连续时间随机模型被大量地应用于评估系统性死亡率的发展，其中模型构建的一种常用方法是卡尔曼滤波算法。本文针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法在建模过程中自动忽略近期非完整队列数据的情况，借鉴机器学习和贝叶斯算法中迭代学习的理念，对传统算法进行了拓展，从而将近期非完整队列数据应用于模型拟合与预测中。通过量化分析对比证明了基于拓展算法的模型在预测方面，尤其是长期预测中，有两方面的优势：更好地捕提了系统性死亡率风险的变动，避免了对长期长寿风险的低估；在预测精度方面有了较大的提升，特别是在长期预测时优势更为明显。

关键词：非完整数据应用卡尔曼滤波算法模型长期预测养老产品定价 incomplete cohort data Kalman Filter Algorithm long-term mortality projections pricing of pension products

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2020年第3期13卷 518-519页

作者： Victor m.villegas Stephen G.Schwartz Craig A.mcKeown Harry W.Flynn Jr Bascom Palmer Eye Institute University of Miami Miller School of MedicineMiamiFlorida 33136United States

Dear Editor,cleral penetration during strabismus surgery was k3 first reported over 50 years ago[1].Early manuscripts reported the incidence of this complication around 10%[1].However,more recent studies suggest that ... 详细信息

关键词： IRB possible occult needle penetration Long-term chorioretinal changes following strabismus surgery

The stadium effect:rodent damage patterns in rice fields explored using giving-up densities

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Integrative Zoology 2017年第6期12卷 438-445页

作者： Clare R.JONES Renee P.LORICA James m.villegas Angelee F.RAmAL Finbarr G.HORGAN Grant R.SINGLETON Alexander m.STUART Crop and Environmental Sciences Division International Rice Research InstituteMetro ManilaPhilippines Natural Resources Institute University of GreenwichChatham MaritimeKentUK Centre for Compassionate Conservation University of Technology SydneyNew South WalesAustralia

Rodents are globally important pre-harvest pests of *** Southeast Asia,rodent damage to growing rice crops is commonly concentrated towards the center of rice fields,away from the field edge,resulting in a clear pattern known as the“stadium effect.”To further understand this behavior of rodent pests and to develop recommendations for future research and management,we examined the relation between giving-up densities(GUDs)and damage *** Tanay,Luzon,Philippines,GUD trays containing pieces of coconut in a matrix of sand were placed at 4 different distances from the field edge to quantify the perceived risk of predation in a rice field pest,Rattus *** were recorded during a dry and wet season crop at the reproductive and ripening stages of *** addition,assessments of active burrows,tracking tile activity and rodent damage to the rice crop,were conducted in the dry *** were significantly lower in the center of the rice fields than on the field edges,suggesting that rodent damage to rice is greater in the middle of rice fields due to a lower perceived predation ***,this perception of predation risk(or fear)increases towards the field edge and was greatest on the rice bund,where there was no vegetation *** discuss the implications for rodent management and rodent damage assessments in rice *** is the first documented use of GUDs in a rice agro-ecosystem in Asia;thus we identify the challenges and lessons learned through this process.

关键词： habitat use landscape of fear pest management Rattus tanezumi rodent behavior

Widefield optical coherence tomography of foveal dragging in retinopathy of prematurity

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2019年第7期12卷 1219-1223页

作者： Victor m.villegas Stephen G.Schwartz Audina m.Berrocal Timothy G.murray Harry W. Flynn Jr. Bascom Palmer Eye Institute University of Miami Miller School of Medicine Miami Florida 33136 USA murray Ocular Oncology and Retina Miami Florida 33143USA

Dear Editor,Despite substantial advances in neonatal medicine, retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) continues to be a serious therapeutic challenge⑴.Visual acuity loss in patients with ROP has been associated with structural retinal abnormalities (including retinal detachment, retinal folds, and pigmentary retinopathy), cataract, glaucoma, and amblyopia due to refractive error or strabismus[2].

关键词： retinopathy of prematurity(ROP) foveal dragging structural retinal abnormalities

仿射死亡率模型长期预测的优化与分析——考虑非完整近期队列数据

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保险研究 2023年第9期 61-70页

作者：李玉龙 michael Sherris Andres m.villegas Jonathan Ziveyi 中国精算师协会国际部澳大利亚新南威尔士大学商学院风险精算系

死亡率建模与预测是精算科学的重要基础,而仿射死亡率模型作为一种经典的连续时间随机模型被大量地应用于评估系统性死亡率的发展,其中模型构建的一种常用方法是卡尔曼滤波算法。本文针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法在建模过程中自动忽略近期非... 详细信息

死亡率建模与预测是精算科学的重要基础,而仿射死亡率模型作为一种经典的连续时间随机模型被大量地应用于评估系统性死亡率的发展,其中模型构建的一种常用方法是卡尔曼滤波算法。本文针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法在建模过程中自动忽略近期非完整队列数据的情况,借鉴机器学习和贝叶斯算法中迭代学习的理念,对传统算法进行了拓展,从而将近期非完整队列数据应用于模型拟合与预测中。通过量化分析对比证明了基于拓展算法的模型在预测方面,尤其是长期预测中,有两方面的优势:更好地捕捉了系统性死亡率风险的变动,避免了对长期长寿风险的低估;在预测精度方面有了较大的提升,特别是在长期预测时优势更为明显。

关键词：非完整数据应用卡尔曼滤波算法模型长期预测养老产品定价

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历史分析与比较政治

Risk scores for allograft failure: Are they still useful in liver recipients from donation after circulatory death?

政治学 2008年第6期

作者： James mahoney Celso m.villegas

本文讨论了比较政治学中历史研究的主要分析方法。第一类是因果分析法，包括横截面分析法和样本内分析法。第二类是时序分析法，包括对路径依赖和发展顺序的分析。本文认为，历史分析与众不同的分析方法使它成为比较政治研究中有力的分... 详细信息

本文讨论了比较政治学中历史研究的主要分析方法。第一类是因果分析法，包括横截面分析法和样本内分析法。第二类是时序分析法，包括对路径依赖和发展顺序的分析。本文认为，历史分析与众不同的分析方法使它成为比较政治研究中有力的分析工具。

关键词：历史分析比较政治因果分析

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World Journal of Transplantation 2024年第4期14卷 95-100页

作者： mohamed H mohamed Chairi mónica mogollón González Jennifer Triguero Cabrera Inmaculada Segura Jiménez maria T villegas Herrera Jesús m Villar del moral Transplant Surgery Division Department of SurgeryVirgen de las Nieves University HospitalGranada 18013AndalusiaSpain

BACKGROUND Liver grafts from donation after circulatory death(DCD)are associated with a higher risk of early graft dysfunction,determined by the warm ischemia and cold ischemia *** is essential to have precise criteria to identify this complication in order to guide therapeutic *** To validate different graft and recipient survival scores in patients undergoing liver transplantation(LT)with DCD *** A retrospective and observational unicentric study was conducted on 65 LT patients with grafts obtained from controlled DCD donors from November 2013 to November *** United Kingdom(UK)risk score,early allograft dysfunction(EAD)Olthoff score,and model for early allograft function(mEAF)score were used to evaluate the risk of graft and recipient survival *** survival analysis purposes,we used the Kaplan-meier method,and the differences between subgroups were compared using the log-rank(mantel-Cox)*** Sixty-five patients were included in the *** UK risk score did not demonstrate predictive capacity for recipient or graft ***,in donors aged over 70 years old(18.4%),it significantly predicted graft survival(Pmeier survival curves,graft survival rates at 6 months,2 years,and 5 years in the futility group dramatically decreased to 50%compared to the other groups(log-rank 8.806,PmEAF scores did not demonstrate predictive capacity for recipient or graft *** on Kaplan-meier survival curves,patients with a mEAF score≥7 had a lower graft survival rate at 6 months,2 years,and 5 years compared to patients with a lower mEAF score(log-rank 4.667,PmEAF score showed predictive capability for graft survival.

关键词： Liver transplantation Donation after circulatory death Early allograft dysfunction Risk scores Graft surviva

The Iberian Roma Population Variant Server(IRPVS)

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Journal of Genetics and Genomics 2024年第7期51卷 769-773页

作者： Fabiola mavillard Javier Perez-Florido Francisco m.Ortuño Amador Valladares miren L.Álvarez-villegas Gema Roldán Rosario Carmona manuel Soriano Santiago Susarte Pilar Fuentes Daniel López-López Ana maría Nuñez-Negrillo Alejandra Carvajal Yolanda morgado Daniel Arteaga Rosa Ufano Pablo mir Juan F.Gamella Joaquín Dopazo Carmen Paradas macarena Cabrera-Serrano Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla(IBiS) Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío/CSIC/Universidad de SevillaSevillaSpain Centro Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Neurodegenerativas(CIBERNED) Instituto de Salud CarlosⅢSevillaSpain Plataforma Andaluza de medicina Computacional Fundación Progreso y Salud(FPS)Hospital Virgen del RocíoSevillaSpain Grupo de medicina computacional de sistemas Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla(IBiS)Hospital Virgen del RocíoSevillaSpain Nodo de Genómica Funcional (INB-ELIXIR-es)Fundación Progreso y Salud(FPS)Hospital Virgen del RocíoSevilla 41013Spain Bioinformática en Enfermedades raras(BiER) Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Raras(CIBERER)Instituto de salud CarlosⅢSevillaSpain Departamento de Ingeniería de Computadores Automática y RobóticaUniversidad de GranadaGranadaSpain Servicio de Urgencias de Atención Primaria Distrito SevillaSevillaSpain Centro de Servicios Sociales Negociado de Servicios EspecializadosAyuntamiento de SevillaSevillaSpain Departamento de Enfermería Facultad de Ciencias de la SaludUniversidad de GranadaGranadaSpain Departamento de Neurología Hospital Virgen de las NievesGranadaSpain Departamento de Neurología Hospital Virgen de ValmeSevillaSpain Centro de Salud Utrera Sur SevillaSpain Centro de Salud Polígono Sur SevillaSpain Unidad de Trastornos del movimiento Servicio de Neurología y Neurofisiología ClínicaHospital Universitario Virgen del RocíoSevillaSpain Departamento de medicina Facultad de MedicinaUniversidad de SevillaSevilleSpain Departamento de Antropología Social Universidad de GranadaSpain Unidad Enfermedades Neuromusculares Servicio de Neurología y Neurofisiología ClínicaHospital Universitario Virgen del RocíoSevillaSpain

In recent years,the number of known disease genes has exponentially grown due to the widespread adoption of cost-effective massive parallel *** identify new disease variants,especially in monogenic disorders,a frequen... 详细信息

关键词： Server filtering massive

model of mediating Determinants of Time Differences in INDYCAR

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Journalism and mass Communication 2024年第4期14卷 232-240页

作者： Wilfrido Isidro Aldana Balderas Héctor Daniel molina Ruiz Enrique martínez muñoz Eleazar villegas González Tirso Javier Hernández Gracia Arturo Sánchez Sánchez Cruz García Lirios Alfredo Barrera Escobar University of méxico HuehuetocaMèxico University of Hidalgo PachucaMèxico University of Tlaxcala Mèxico University of CDmX Mexico University of FV Mexico

The IndyCar series distinguishes itself by providing the same design and operation of the single-seater to its *** difference in times is then attributable to the skills of the drivers,but considering the data from the races could test this *** objective of this work was to establish a trajectory model to predict race times.A cross-sectional,correlational,and explanatory work was carried out with a sample of 18,474 records in the period from 2020 to 2023 of the IndyCar *** results show that the time span predicts the time *** relation to the studies of acceptance of the technology,the adjustment of this to human capacities to explain the time differences in the series of racing cars is discussed.

关键词： time differences ranking differences ranking race time laps completed