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中国户籍登记系统漏登合成估计方法研究

系统科学与数学 2024年

作者：黄艳华 López-carr david 胡桂华重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院 University of California Santa Barbara Department of Geography 重庆工商大学数学与统计学院统计智能计算与监测重庆市重点实验室

中国户籍登记系统存在漏登人口问题,但政府部门尚未开展户籍漏登估计工作.联合国统计司建议各国采用的单重漏登估计量未覆盖全部漏登人口,低估漏登率.本文提出用合成漏登估计量替代单重漏登估计量,并通过案例研究,比较了合成漏登估计量... 详细信息

中国户籍登记系统存在漏登人口问题,但政府部门尚未开展户籍漏登估计工作.联合国统计司建议各国采用的单重漏登估计量未覆盖全部漏登人口,低估漏登率.本文提出用合成漏登估计量替代单重漏登估计量,并通过案例研究,比较了合成漏登估计量与单重漏登估计量.实证研究结果表明:四种合成漏登估计量估计的漏登率均高于单重漏登估计量;除其中一种合成漏登估计量估计的漏登率的抽样标准差略高于单重漏登估计量外,其他三种合成漏登估计量估计结果的抽样标准差均小于单重漏登估计量.研究结果为统计局和公安部未来制定户籍登记系统漏登估计方案提供重要参考,提高方案的科学性和可操作性.

关键词：抽样调查事后分层三系统估计量刀切法

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人口统计分析模型与人口普查净误差估计

系统科学与数学 2024年

作者：余鲁李婷 david López-carr 胡桂华吴笛漆莉重庆工商大学数学与统计学院 Department of Geography America University of California 重庆工商大学统计智能计算与监测重庆市重点实验室

本文旨在引入美国的人口统计分析模型,建立适合于在我国应用的人口统计分析模型.采取文献解读法和概率模型法,研究人口统计分析模型及其相关问题.研究结果表明:人口统计分析模型在我国的研究尚处于起步阶段,建立我国的人口统计分析模型... 详细信息

本文旨在引入美国的人口统计分析模型,建立适合于在我国应用的人口统计分析模型.采取文献解读法和概率模型法,研究人口统计分析模型及其相关问题.研究结果表明:人口统计分析模型在我国的研究尚处于起步阶段,建立我国的人口统计分析模型,不能照搬美国的人口统计分析模型,而应该结合我国实际情况有所改进与创新;建立人口统计分析模型分为两个层次,一是建立基于全面资料的人口统计分析模型,无需计算抽样方差,二是建立基于抽样调查资料的人口统计分析模型,需采用刀切法近似计算其抽样方差;人口统计分析模型的优势是,充分利用了出生、死亡及国际迁移等人口行政记录资料,节约了数据采集成本,与人口普查独立,劣势是,估计结果具有不确定性,尤其是其中的国际净迁移人数的估计结果差异较大.人口统计分析模型有望应用于我国2030年人口普查净误差估计,开创我国在该领域使用人口统计分析模型的先河.

关键词：人口普查人口普查质量评估行政记录抽样调查刀切法

Late Ordovician Mass Extinction: Earth, fire and ice

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 51-65页

作者： david A.T.Harper Palaeoecosystems Group Department of Earth SciencesDurham University

The Late Ordovician Mass Extinction was the earliest of the ‘big’ five extinction events and the earliest to affect the trajectory of metazoan life. Two phases have been identified near the start of the Hirnantian period and in the middle. It was a massive taxonomic extinction, a weak phylogenetic extinction and a relatively benign ecological extinction. A rapid cooling, triggering a major ice age that reduced the temperature of surface waters, prompted a drop in sea level of some 100 m and introduced toxic bottom waters onto the shelves. These symptoms of more fundamental planetary processes have been associated with a range of factors with an underlying driver identified as volcanicity. Volcanic eruptions, and other products, may have extended back in time to at least the Sandbian and early Katian, suggesting the extinctions were more protracted and influential than hitherto documented.

关键词： Ordovician LOME paleoecology palaeobiogeography biotas

One-dimensional monotone nonautonomous dynamical systems

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Science China Mathematics 2024年第2期67卷 281-314页

作者： david Cheban Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science Laboratory of Fundamental and Applied MathematicsMoldova State UniversityChisinau 2009Moldova

This work is devoted to the study of the dynamics of one-dimensional monotone nonautonomous(cocycle) dynamical systems. A description of the structures of their invariant sets, omega limit sets,Bohr/Levitan almost periodic and almost automorphic motions, global attractors, and pinched and minimalsets is given. An application of our general results is given to scalar differential and difference equations.

关键词： one-dimensional dynamics pinched and minimal sets global attractors monotone nonautonomous cocycle almost periodic solutions scalar differential/difference equations

Kerogen Kinetic Distributions and Simulations Provide Insights into Petroleum Transformation Fraction (TF) Profiles of Organic-Rich Shales

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第3期35卷 747-757页

作者： david A.Wood DWA Energy Limited Lincoln LN59JPUnited Kingdom

Two hundred and fifty single first-order Arrhenius reactions are simulated to generate S2 pyrograms at three heating rates 25,15,and 5°C·*** activation energy(E)and pre-exponential factor(A)of the reactions simulated follow a long-established trend of those variable values displayed by shales and *** characteristics of the transformation fraction(TF)profiles(product generation window temperatures)of the simulated single reactions are compared to the TF profiles of recorded shale pyrograms generated by multiple reactions with different E-A values lying near the defined E-A *** similarities and differences are observed between the TF profile values of the two *** similarities support the spread of E-A values involved in shale pyrogram best *** differences are most likely explained by the complexity of the multiple kerogen first-order and second-order reactions contributing to the recorded shale pyrograms versus the simplicity and crispness of the single first-order reactions *** results also justify the validity of using the previously described“variable E-A pyrogram-fitting method”of multi-heating-rate shale pyrograms enabling optimizers to choose multiple reactions from an unlimited range of E-A *** contrast,further doubt is cast on the validity of the constant-A pyrogram-fitting method used by the Easy%Ro technique,in that a distribution of reactions with a single A value is unlikely to represent the complex variety of kerogen macerals observed in shale *** profiles generated by the variable E-A pyrogram-fitting method lie close to the established E-A trend and are likely to provide more realistic TF generation window temperatures than TF profiles generated by the constant-A pyrogram-fitting method.

关键词： transformation fraction profiles simulated S2 pyrograms multiple heating rates kerogen/shale kinetics S2 pyrogram fitting techniques kerogen petroleum research.

Analysis of ancient mass extinction recoveries in marine environments: generating strategies for managing outcomes of the current mass extinction

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 8-10页

作者： david J.Bottjer Department of Earth Sciences University of Southern California

The defining feature of a mass extinction and its associated recovery is the global amount of extinction that occurred[1]. However, there is finer-scale detail to the story, as seen in the ongoing modern mass extinction(the sixth mass extinction), which exhibits variable effects among marine ecosystems and environments, and hence geographic areas [1].

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Current state-of-the-art review of footwear–ground friction

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Friction 2024年第10期12卷 2188-2204页

作者： david REBENDA Tomáš SÁHA Footwear Research Centre University InstituteTomas Bata University in ZlinZlin 76001Czech Republic Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Brno University of TechnologyBron 61600Czech Republic

The most important role of footwear is to ensure safe,functional walking,and foot *** the proper functionality of not only the work shoes,the anti-slip behavior of the shoe under various conditions and environments plays an important role in the prevention of slips,trips,falls,and consequent *** article is intended to review the current understanding of the frictional mechanisms between shoe outsoles and various counterfaces that impact the evaluation of outsole *** research focuses on the mechanisms driving outsole friction on different ground surfaces or the definition and description of parameters that influence outsole ***,the review discusses the effect of various surface contaminants on footwear ***,challenges and outlooks in the field of footwear outsoles are briefly mentioned.

关键词： shoe outsole composite slipperiness coefficient of friction(COF) adhesion safe walk

A comprehensive look at the psychoneuroimmunoendocrinology of spinal cord injury and its progression: mechanisms and clinical opportunities

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Military Medical Research 2024年第2期11卷 228-267页

作者： Miguel A.Ortega Oscar Fraile-Martinez Cielo García-Montero Sergio Haro Miguel Ángel Álvarez-Mon Diego De Leon-Oliva Ana M.Gomez-Lahoz Jorge Monserrat Mar Atienza-Pérez david Díaz Elisa lopez-Dolado Melchor Álvarez-Mon Department of Medicine and Medical Specialities University of Alcala28801 Alcala de HenaresSpain Ramón y Cajal Institute of Sanitary Research(IRYCIS) 28034 MadridSpain Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health Hospital Universitario Infanta Leonor28031 MadridSpain Service of Rehabilitation National Hospital for Paraplegic PatientsCarr.de la PeraledaS/N45004 ToledoSpain Immune System Diseases‑Rheumatology Service and Internal Medicine University Hospital Príncipe de Asturias(CIBEREHD)28806 Alcala de HenaresSpain

Spinal cord injury(SCI)is a devastating and disabling medical condition generally caused by a traumatic event(primary injury).This initial trauma is accompanied by a set of biological mechanisms directed to ameliorate neural damage but also exacerbate initial damage(secondary injury).The alterations that occur in the spinal cord have not only local but also systemic consequences and virtually all organs and tissues of the body incur important changes after SCI,explaining the progression and detrimental consequences related to this ***(PNIE)is a growing area of research aiming to integrate and explore the interactions among the different systems that compose the human organism,considering the mind and the body as a *** initial traumatic event and the consequent neurological disruption trigger immune,endocrine,and multisystem dysfunction,which in turn affect the patient's psyche and *** the present review,we will explore the most important local and systemic consequences of SCI from a PNIE perspective,defining the changes occurring in each system and how all these mechanisms are ***,potential clinical approaches derived from this knowledge will also be collectively presented with the aim to develop integrative therapies to maximize the clinical management of these patients.

关键词： Spinal cord injury(SCI) Psychoneuroimmunoendocrinology(PNIE) Secondary injury Immunoinflammatory dysfunction Gut microbiota Translational opportunities

Gastroesophageal reflux following peroral endoscopic myotomy for achalasia:Bumps in the road to success

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第29期30卷 3461-3464页

作者： david Itskoviz Stephen david Howard Malnick Kaplan Medical Center Institute of Gastroenterology and HepatologyHebrew University Medical School of JerusalemRehovot 76100Israel Kaplan Medical Center Department of Internal Medicine CHebrew University Medical School of JerusalemRehovot 76100Israel

Achalasia can significantly impair the quality of *** clinical presentation typically includes dysphagia to both solids and liquids,chest pain,and *** can be delayed in patients with atypical presentations,and they might receive a wrong diagnosis,such as gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD),owing to overlapping symptoms of both *** the cause of achalasia is poorly understood,its impact on the motility of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction is well *** treatment modalities have been utilized,with the most common being surgical Heller myotomy with concomitant fundoplication and pneumatic balloon ***,peroral endoscopic myotomy(POEM)has gained popularity as an effective treatment for achalasia,despite a relatively high incidence of GERD occurring after treatment compared to other *** magnitude of post-POEM GERD depends on its definition and is influenced by patient and procedure-related *** longterm sequelae of post-POEM GERD are yet to be determined,but it appears to have a benign course and is usually manageable with clinically available *** risk factors for post-POEM GERD and modifying the POEM procedure in selected patients may improve the overall success of this technique.

关键词： Achalasia Per-oral endoscopic myotomy Gastroesophageal reflux Pneumatic dilatation Heller myotomy Proton pump inhibitor Acidic fermentation