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Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 40-46页

作者： Hui Qiu Tianjun Zhou liwei zou Jie Jiang Xiaolong Chen Shuai Hu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model *** to develop a reliable projection remains ***,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the *** best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,*** corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),*** increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained ***,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–*** wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–*** study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

关键词： Tibetan plateau Climate sensitivity Precipitation projection Water availability projection

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基于微博文本和深度学习的台风灾情识别方法研究——以2010—2019年广东省过境台风为例

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热带地理 2024年第6期44卷 1079-1089页

作者：邹黎威贺智周承乐中山大学地理科学与规划学院//南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 广州510275 广东省城市安全智能监测与智慧城市规划企业重点实验室广州510290

结合台风属性数据和多标签分类方法,以BERT-BiLSTM(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory)为分类模型,提出基于微博文本与深度学习的台风灾情识别方法,对2010—2019年登陆广东省的强台风/超强台风灾情进行识别,在粗分类获取台风灾情相关微博文本的基础上,进一步细分类为交通影响、社会影响、电力影响、林业影响和内涝积水等5类灾情。结果表明:1)提出的台风灾情识别方法粗分类和细分类精度分别达到0.907和0.814;2)强台风/超强台风的灾情占比受台风强度、路径和受灾地区发展水平等因素影响而存在差异;3)台风登陆前,灾情主要为台风预防措施导致的交通影响和社会影响。台风登陆后,灾情表现出单峰和双峰特征,反映台风灾情的变化趋势和特点。

关键词：台风灾情微博文本深度学习 BERT BiLSTM 多标签分类广东省

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Development and evaluation of a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model with focus on the western North Pacific summer monsoon simulation:Impacts of different atmospheric components

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Science China Earth Sciences 2012年第5期55卷 802-815页

作者： zou liwei ZHOU TianJun LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

A regional ocean atmosphere coupled model (ROAM) is developed through coupler OASIS3,and is composed of regional climate model RegCM3 and CREM (Climate version of Regional Eta Model) as its atmospheric component and of a revised Princeton ocean model (POM2000) as its oceanic *** performance of the ROAM over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region is assessed by the case simulation of warm season in *** of different atmospheric model components on the performance of ROAM are *** with stand-alone simulation,CREM (RegCM3) produces more (or less) rainfall over ocean area with inclusion of the air-sea *** biases of rainfall are caused by the different biases of SST derived from the coupled *** (or cold) SST bias simulated by CREM_CPL (RegCM3_CPL) increases (or decreases) the evaporation at sea surface,then increases (or decreases) the rainfall over *** analyses suggest that the biases of vertical profile of temperature and specific humidity in stand-alone simulations may be responsible for the SST biases in regional coupled *** with reanalysis data,the warmer (or colder) and moister (or dryer) lower troposphere simulated in CREM (RegCM3) produces less (or more) sea surface latent heat ***,the more unstable (or stable) lower troposphere produces less (or more) cloudiness at low-level,which increases (or decreases) the solar radiation reaching on the sea *** (RegCM3) forced by observed SST overestimates (or underestimates) the sea surface net heat flux,implying a potential warm (or cold) heat *** coupling with POM2000,the warm (or cold) heat source would further increase (or decrease) the *** biases of vertical profile of temperature and specific humidity may be ascribed to the different representation of cumulus convection in atmospheric models.

关键词： inter-comparison of regional coupling different atmospheric component western North Pacific summer monsoon model biases

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Asian Summer Monsoon Onset in Simulations and CMIP5 Projections Using Four Chinese Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第6期32卷 794-806页

作者： zou liwei ZHOU Tianjun State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon onset climate projection Chinese climate models

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SST biases over the Northwest Pacific and possible causes in CMIP5 models

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Science China Earth Sciences 2018年第6期61卷 792-803页

作者： Chenqi WANG liwei zou Tianjun ZHOU LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change Nanjing 210023 China

In this paper, the features and possible causes of sea surface temperature(SST) biases over the Northwest Pacific are investigated based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis in 21 coupled general circulation models(CGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP5). Most CMIP5 models show cold SST biases throughout the year over the Northwest Pacific. The largest biases appear during summer, and the smallest biases occur during winter. These cold SST biases are seen at the basin scale and are mainly located in the inner region of the low and mid-latitudes. According to the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, overestimation of upward net sea surface heat fluxes associated with atmospheric processes are primarily responsible for the cold SST biases. Among the different components of surface heat fluxes, overestimated upward latent heat fluxes induced by the excessively strong surface winds contribute the most to the cold SST biases during the spring, autumn, and winter seasons. Conversely, during the summer, overestimated upward latent heat fluxes and underestimated downward solar radiations at the sea surface are equally important. Further analysis suggests that the overly strong surface winds over the Northwest Pacific during winter and spring are associated with excessive precipitation over the Maritime Continent region,whereas those occurring during summer and autumn are associated with the excessive northward extension of the intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ). The excessive precipitation over the Maritime Continent region and the biases in the simulated ITCZ induce anomalous northeasterlies, which are in favor of enhancing low-level winds over the North Pacific. The enhanced surface wind increases the sea surface evaporation, which contributes to the excessive upward latent heat fluxes. Thus, the SST over the Northwest Pacific cools.

关键词： CMIP5 multi-model ensemble SST bias Mixed-layer heat budget analysis Atmospheric processes

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气候变化影响中国东北地区降水侵蚀力的高分辨率区域模式预估

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大气科学 2024年第2期48卷 480-496页

作者：辛羽婷张文霞邹立维周天军赵勇成都信息工程大学大气科学学院成都610225 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049 吉林省吉林市气象局吉林132000

土壤侵蚀是生态环境和农业生产的重要影响因子。我国东三省土地面积79.33万平方公里,占我国国土面积的9.3%,是重要的商品粮基地,同时也是世界四大黑土区之一。在气候变化背景下,我国东北地区的土壤侵蚀情况及其未来风险,目前仍不清楚。... 详细信息

土壤侵蚀是生态环境和农业生产的重要影响因子。我国东三省土地面积79.33万平方公里,占我国国土面积的9.3%,是重要的商品粮基地,同时也是世界四大黑土区之一。在气候变化背景下,我国东北地区的土壤侵蚀情况及其未来风险,目前仍不清楚。影响土壤侵蚀力的重要因素之一是降水侵蚀力(R-factor),其与强降水有关。本研究利用CN05.1和APHRODITE观测降水资料揭示了我国东北地区降水侵蚀力的观测特征。在气候平均态上,东北地区东南部降水侵蚀力最强。降水侵蚀力存在明显的年循环,以夏季为主导,占全年总侵蚀的80%以上。在观测分析基础上,对RegCM4动力降尺度模式进行了评估和订正,并预估了未来不同共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)下中国东北地区降水侵蚀力的变化。随着未来增温,到21世纪末,两种排放情景下东北地区平均的降水侵蚀力分别增加9.90%和26.70%。高排放情景下将面临更严重的降水侵蚀风险,SSP5-8.5情景下降水侵蚀力的增强幅度约为SSP1-2.6情景下变化的2.7倍,同时77.69%的区域面积上降水侵蚀力将更强。因此,采取切实有效的减排措施,走可持续发展路径,对于减缓我国东北地区黑土地的土壤侵蚀风险,进而保障粮食安全,具有重要意义。

关键词：降水侵蚀动力降尺度气候变化偏差订正

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Simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon by regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model:impacts of oceanic components

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2014年第7期59卷 662-673页

作者： liwei zou Tianjun Zhou LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

A successful simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon needs a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model(ROAM). How the performance of ROAM relies on the oceanic component model remains unknown. In this study, the authors investigated the effects of different oceanic components on the simulation of western North Pacific(WNP) summer monsoon in a ROAM. Three cases of simulations were performed, viz. the summer of 1998(El Nin o decaying phase), 2004(El Nin o developing phase), and 1993(the non-ENSO phase). Results show that the coupled simulations for different ENSO phases exhibit improvements in the simulation of location of Meiyu rainband and spatial distribution of monsoon low-level flow over WNP, whereas the systemic cold biases of sea surface air temperature are further increased. The coupled simulations with different oceanic components show similar performance, which is not ENSO phase dependent. For the case of the summer of 1998, a slightly stronger western Pacific subtropical high and colder sea surface air temperature are found in the simulation with colder sea surface temperature(SST) biases. The colder SST biases are partly contributed by the ocean dynamics processes because the sea surface net flux favors a warmer SST. This study suggests that the dependence of performance of ROAM over WNP on oceanic models is much weaker than that on atmospheric models.

关键词：西北太平洋海洋表面夏季风海气耦合模式成分西太平洋副热带高压耦合模拟仿真

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弥散张量成像评估终末期肾病继发甲状旁腺功能亢进症患者认知及脑白质损伤

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中国医学影像技术 2024年第3期40卷 341-345页

作者：单艳棋徐佳佳苏莲子赵茹邹立巍王龙胜安徽医科大学第二附属医院放射科安徽合肥230601 安徽医科大学影像研究中心安徽合肥230032

目的采用弥散张量成像(DTI)评估终末期肾病(ESRD)继发甲状旁腺功能亢进症(SHPT)患者认知及脑白质微结构损伤。方法回顾性分析50例ESDR患者,以其中25例SHPT者为SHPT组,以25例非SHPT者为对照组,记录其简易精神状态检查(MMSE)评估结果及... 详细信息

目的采用弥散张量成像(DTI)评估终末期肾病(ESRD)继发甲状旁腺功能亢进症(SHPT)患者认知及脑白质微结构损伤。方法回顾性分析50例ESDR患者,以其中25例SHPT者为SHPT组,以25例非SHPT者为对照组,记录其简易精神状态检查(MMSE)评估结果及相关临床血清学指标;比较颅脑DTI所示组间各向异性分数(FA)、平均弥散率(MD)、轴向弥散率(AD)及径向弥散率(RD),分析SHPT组MMSE评分及血清学指标与上述指标组间存在差异脑区DTI参数的相关性。结果相比对照组,SHPT组MMSE评分明显减低、血清钙水平略升高(P均0,P均<0.05)。结论 ESRD SHPT患者存在认知功能障碍;其脑白质微结构广泛损伤并以轴突损伤为主,具有右侧大脑半球偏侧性,且与血清钙、磷酸盐及肌酐水平相关。

关键词：肾功能不全,慢性继发性甲旁亢磁共振成像

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Introduction to the Regional Coupled Model WRF4-LICOM: Performance and Model Intercomparison over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第8期37卷 800-816页

作者： liwei zou Tianjun ZHOU Jianping TANG Hailong LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing210023China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Regional coupled modeling is one of the frontiers of regional climate modeling,but intercomparison has not been well *** this study,a community regional climate model,WRF4,with a resolution of 15 km,was coupled with a high-resolution(0.1°)North Pacific Ocean model(LICOM_np).The performance of the regional coupled model,WRF4_LICOM,was compared to that of another regional coupled model,RegCM4_LICOM,which was a coupling of version 4 of the Regional Climate Model(RegCM4)with LICOM_*** analysis focused on the 2005 western North Pacific summer monsoon *** results showed that the regional coupled models with either RegCM4 or WRF4 as their atmospheric model component simulated the broad features over the WNP reasonably *** intercomparison of the regional coupled simulations exhibited different biases for different climate ***4_LICOM exhibited smaller biases in its simulation of the averaged June–July–August SST and rainfall,while WRF4_LICOM better captured the tropical cyclone(TC)intensity,the percentage contributions of rainfall induced by TCs to the total rainfall,and the diurnal cycle of rainfall and stratiform percentages,especially over land *** different behaviors in rainfall simulated by the two models were partly ascribed to the behaviors in the simulated western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).The stronger(weaker)WNPSH in WRF4_LICOM(RegCM4_LICOM)was driven by overestimated(underestimated)diabatic heating,which peaked at approximately 450 hPa over the region around the Philippines in association with different condensation–radiation *** of WRF4 with LIOCM is a crucial step towards the development of the next generation of regional earth system models at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

关键词： regional coupled model model intercomparison western North Pacific summer monsoon precipitation

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Two interannual variability modes of the Northwestern Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in boreal summer

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Science China Earth Sciences 2013年第7期56卷 1254-1265页

作者： HE Chao ZHOU TianJun zou liwei ZHANG LiXia The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Using the reanalysis data and 20th century simulation of coupled model FGOALS_gl developed by LASG/IAP, we identified two distinct interannual modes of Northwestern Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone （NWPAC） by performing Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis on 850 hPa wind field over the northwestern Pacific in summer. Based on the associated anoma- lous equatorial zonal wind, these two modes are termed as ＂Equatorial Easterly related Mode＂（EEM） and ＂Equatorial Westerly related Mode＂（EWM）, respectively. The formation mechanisms of these two modes are similar, whereas the maintenance mechanisms, dominant periods, and the relationships with ENSO are different. The EEM is associated with E1 Nifio decaying phase, with the anomalous anticyclone established in the preceding winter and persisted into summer through local positive air-sea feedback. By enhancing equatorial upwelling of subsurface cold water, EEM favors the transition of ENSO from E1 Nifio to La Nifia. The EWM is accompanied by the E1 Nifio events with long persistence, with the anomalous anticyclone formed in spring and strengthened in summer due to the warm Sea Surface Temperature anomalies （SSTA） forcing from the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The model well reproduces the spatial patterns of these two modes, but fails to simulate the percentage variance accounted for by the two modes. In the NCEP reanalysis （model result）, EEM （EWM） appears as the first mode, which accounts for 35.6% （68.2%） of the total variance.

关键词： Northwestern Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone interannual variability mode equatorial easterly related mode equato-rial westerly related mode ENSO

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