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The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1496-1510,1661-1667页

作者： Ting LEI shuanglin li Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Meteorological Service Center Beijing 100089China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective *** sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

关键词： Ural persistent anomaly Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG shuanglin li Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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考虑患者转运的跨区域动态协同应急物流选址-分配优化研究

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铁道科学与工程学报 2024年第4期21卷 1391-1401页

作者：龙圣杰张得志李双艳李双琳中南大学交通运输工程学院湖南长沙410075 中南林业科技大学物流与交通学院湖南长沙410004

针对突发公共卫生事件下多个受灾地区之间跨区域应急资源配置的现实需求,研究考虑患者转运的跨区域动态协同应急物流选址−分配优化问题,构建跨区域的患者转运与应急资源协同配置两阶段优化决策模型。模型第1阶段优化确定患者动态变化与... 详细信息

针对突发公共卫生事件下多个受灾地区之间跨区域应急资源配置的现实需求,研究考虑患者转运的跨区域动态协同应急物流选址−分配优化问题,构建跨区域的患者转运与应急资源协同配置两阶段优化决策模型。模型第1阶段优化确定患者动态变化与相应医院数量及其选址,第2阶段优化确定应急物资配送中心选址与应急物资分配。该优化模型同时考虑应急物流总成本(包括设施固定成本与运营成本)与转运时间2个优化目标,且考虑多周期动态变化的实际需求。针对上述优化模型特征,设计嵌入模型预测控制(MPC)方法的改进遗传算法。该算法将每个决策周期分为3个环节:1)疾病扩散预测环节,即每个周期开始时对疾病发展趋势进行预测;2)应急决策规划及实施环节,根据规划窗口的预测数据制定并实施应急选址−分配方案;3)数据更新与动态调整环节,即每个执行周期结束时,根据实际执行数据制定下一个周期决策。3个环节交互进行,相互迭代直到完成整个规划时期。最后,以贵州省跨区域的应急资源协同配置优化为例,验证所提优化模型及其求解算法的有效性。研究发现:与各区域独自应急相比,跨区域动态协同应急方案在转运时间没有明显增加的情况下,能有效降低应急成本,能够高效率地利用应急设施为感染患者提供救治。研究成果为突发公共卫生事件中多区域之间的协同应急资源配置优化提供决策支持。

关键词：应急物流协同应急患者转运应急资源选址-分配动态调整案例研究

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Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models:A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 196-203页

作者： shuanglin li Rashed MAHMOOD Department of Atmospheric Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria Department of Meteorology COMSATS Institute of Information Technology

Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought.

关键词： South Asian summer monsoon black carbon CMIP3 projection simulations

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Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第4期57卷 3062-3072页

作者： LUO FeiFei li shuanglin Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment for East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences

A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to *** on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as *** hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_***,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic *** forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global *** monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order ***_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually *** with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.

关键词： East Asia surface air temperature decadal prediction internal decadal variability anthropogenic forcing

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The Influence of Regional SSTs on the Interdecadal Shift of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 330-340页

作者： FU Jianjian li shuanglin Climate Changes Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL （Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory） AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal shift SST AGCM

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Precursor Role of Winter Sea-Ice in the Labrador Sea for Following-Spring Precipitation over Southeastern North America and Western Europe

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第1期35卷 65-74页

作者： Zhe HAN shuanglin li CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China China University of Geosciences Wuhan 430074 China

The role of winter sea-ice in the Labrador Sea as a precursor for precipitation anomalies over southeastern North America and Western Europe in the following spring is investigated. In general terms, as the sea ice increases, the precipitation also increases. In more detail, however, analyses indicate that both the winter sea-ice and the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies related to increases in winter sea-ice in the Labrador Sea can persist into the following spring. These features play a forcing role in the spring atmosphere, which may be the physical mechanism behind the observational relationship between the winter sea-ice and spring precipitation anomalies. The oceanic forcings in spring include Arctic sea-ice anomalies and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and high-latitude North Atlantic. Multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulation results show that the atmospheric circulation response to the combination of sea-ice and SST is similar to that observed, which suggests that the oceanic forcings are indeed the physical reason for the enhanced spring precipitation. Sensitivity experiments conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that the increases in precipitation over southeastern North America are mainly attributable to the effect of the SST anomalies, while the increases over Western Europe are mainly due to the sea-ice anomalies. Although model simulations reveal that the SST anomalies play the primary role in the precipitation anomalies over southeastern North America, the observational statistical analyses indicate that the area of sea-ice in the Labrador Sea seems to be the precursor that best predicts the spring precipitation anomaly.

关键词： winter Labrador sea ice spring precipitation air-sea interaction

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Quantifying the Response Strength of the Southern Stratospheric Polar Vortex to Indian Ocean Warming in Austral Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 492-503页

作者： li shuanglin CHEN Xiaoting Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory

A previous multiple-AGCM study suggested that Indian Ocean Warming （IOW） tends to warm and weaken the southern polar *** an impact is robust because of a qualitative consistency among the five AGCMs ***,a significant difference exists in the modeled strengths,particularly in the stratosphere,with those in three of the AGCMs （CCM3,CAM3,and GFS） being four to five times as strong as those in the two other models （GFDL AM2,ECHAM5）.As to which case reflects reality is an important issue not only for quantifying the role of tropical ocean warming in the recent modest recovery of the ozone hole over the Antarctic,but also for projecting its future *** issue is addressed in the present study through comparing the models＇ climatological mean states and intrinsic variability,particularly those influencing tropospheric signals to propagate upward and reach the *** results suggest that differences in intrinsic variability of model atmospheres provide implications for the *** on a comparison with observations,it is speculated that the impact in the real world may be closer to the modest one simulated by GFDL AM2 and ECHAM5,rather than the strong one simulated by the three other models （CCM3,CAM3 and GFS）.In particular,IOW during the past 50 years may have dynamically induced a 1.0℃ warming in the polar lower stratosphere （～100 hPa）,which canceled a fraction of radiative cooling due to ozone depletion.

关键词： southern hemispheric polar vortex SST atmospheric general circulation models ozone depletion

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The Asymmetric Connection of SST in the Tasman Sea with Respect to the Opposite Phases of ENSO in Austral Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1897-1913页

作者： Xueqian SUN shuanglin li Stefan liESS Climate Change Research Center(CCRC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Science/Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Earth and Planetary Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Department of Soil Waterand ClimateUniversity of MinnesotaTwin CitiesSt.Paul MN 55108MinnesotaUSA

This study uses linear regression and composite analyses to identify a pronounced asymmetric connection of sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea with the two opposite phases of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during austral *** El Ni?o years,the SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the Tasman Sea exhibit a dipolar pattern with weak warmth in the northwest and modest cooling in the southeast,while during La Ni?a years the SSTAs exhibit a basin-scale warmth with greater *** into the underlying mechanism suggest that this asymmetry arises from a mechanism related to oceanic heat transport,specifically the anomalous Ekman meridional heat transport induced by the zonal wind stress anomalies,rather than the surface heat fluxes on the air-sea *** analysis reveals that the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport between El Ni?o and La Ni?a years is driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea stimulated by the asymmetric diabatic heating in the tropical Pacific between the two opposite ENSO phases.

关键词： El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation SST in the Tasman Sea asymmetric connection surface heat fluxes oceanic heat transport

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An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 435-448页

作者： HAN Leqiong li shuanglin liU Na Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Chengdu University of Information Technology State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model *** predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal *** predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample *** the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models＇ hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct *** the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation （the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation） indices were used as ***,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total *** prediction was compared with the models＇ raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale *** comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm *** improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models＇ raw hindcasted rainfall ***,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions.

关键词： summer rainfall short-term prediction decomposing downscaling

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