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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

American Journal of Climate Change 2019年第2期8卷 237-262页

作者： Manirakiza Célestin lawin agnidé emmanuel Lamboni Batablinlè Niyongendako Marc Institute of Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Abomey-Calavi Porto-Novo Benin Laboratory of Applied Hydrology National Institute of Water University of Abomey-Calavi Abomey-Calavi Benin

This paper assessed climate change impact on future wind power potential across highlands and western lowlands of Burundi. Hourly observed and MERRA-2 data were considered for the historical period 1980-2016, and a Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight selected Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over the periods 2019-2040 and 2071-2100 was used. Variability and trend analysis were adopted using standardized index and Mann-Kendall’s test, respectively while wind power density (WPD) in quartiles was adopted for changes distribution. As results, diurnal wind speeds (WS) were higher from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM, while monthly wind speeds reached the maximum during summer time. An increasing trend in WPD was detected all over the studied area. Over the period 2019-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern Highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 28.04 W·m−2 while the highest WPD change of 47.35 W·m−2 is projected under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). As for the period 2071-2100, the highest change is expected at SIP under RCP 8.5 with 152.39 W·m−2 while the minimum change of 83.96 W·m−2 is projected under RCP 4.5 at NHL. The findings showed that areas nearby the Lake Tanganyika are expected to have high positive WDP changes.

关键词： Burundi Wind Power Changes Future Climate

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Future Extremes Temperature: Trends and Changes Assessment over the Mono River Basin, Togo (West Africa)

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2019年第1期11卷 82-98页

作者： lawin agnidé emmanuel Lamboni Batablinlè Manirakiza Célestin Kamou Hodabalo Applied Hydrology Laboratory University of Abomey-Calavi Abomey-Calavi Benin Institute of Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Abomey-Calavi Abomey-Calavi Benin Faculty of Sciences University of Lomé Lomé Togo

This study assessed the extreme temperatures trends and changes over Mono River Basin under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of five (5) regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were selected from the eighth (8) considered. Future trends in temperature percentiles, including extremes, are used to assess changes in the distribution of daily temperature over Mono Basin in Togo. Changes of temperature and Extreme low (high) temperatures from the baseline period 1961-2010 were computed for future (2051-2100). This analysis reveals that in the north of the basin, for the positive trends, the maximum is 0.82°C·year-1 given by model MPI-ESM2 at Tchamba while the strongest negative change is 0.26°C·year-1 given by model MIROC at Sotouboua. In the south of the basin, the strongest negative trend is of 0.03°C·year-1 given by model (A) CNRM-CMA5. The maximum ones of the trends for models-mean are all positive except at Anié. Higher percentiles of minimum and maximum temperature will increase at a greater rate than the lower percentiles during dry and rainy seasons (with differences more pronounced for maximum values) over the north. Concerning future changes, almost all the RCMs predicted an increase of maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the Mono Basin, particularly in the north. Finally, results predicted an increase of TX90P (TX10P) and TN90P (TN10P) from 10% to 45% (13% to 40%) and 0% to 35% (12% Mean value), respectively over Mono Basin.

关键词： Future Extreme Temperatures Trends Changes Mono River Basin Togo

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Variability of Future Rainfall over the Mono River Basin of West-Africa

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American Journal of Climate Change 2019年第1期8卷 137-155页

作者： Batablinlè Lamboni lawin agnidé emmanuel Celestin Manirakiza Zakari Moussa Djibib Institute of Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Abomey-Calavi Abomey-Calavi Benin Applied Hydrology Laboratory University of Abomey-Calavi Abomey-Calavi Benin Faculty of Sciences Department of Mathematic University of Lomé Lomé Togo

This study assessed the rainfall trends and changes over Mono river basin under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of eight regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were considered. To analyze the performance of a set of regional climate models, the MBE (mean bias error), the RMSE (root mean square error), the volume bias (VB), correlation coefficient (R2) and the t-Test statistics were calculated. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), Mann-Kendall trend test, Theil-Sen’s slope estimator (β), and relative percentage change methods were also adopted for data analysis. Changes from the baseline period 1981-2010 were computed for far future (2061-2090 and 2071-2100). As results, the analysis herein highlighted the multi-models’ mean ability to simulate the Mono river basin rainfall adequately. Two distinct patterns emerged from the calculated PCI indicating that stations in southern basin will have moderate, irregular, and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations, whereas stations in northern basin will have irregular and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations. Significant declining in the rainfall was detected in most stations for the future period. The evolution of the monthly average rainfall amounts will be broadly characterized by a decrease and increase between 32.4 and 12% with late rainy seasons. It is understood that future changes in rainfall distribution and trends will affect the availability of water for crops, which should affect the productivity of rain fed agriculture.

关键词： Future Rainfall Variability Trend Change Mono Basin

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