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Projection of climate extremes in China,an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Science Bulletin 2021年第24期66卷 2528-2537,M0004页

作者： Huanhuan Zhu Zhihong Jiang laurent li Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming of 1.5,2,and 3℃ above pre-industrial(1861–1900),based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)*** are compared with what produced by the precedent phase of the project,*** evaluation for the reference period(1985–2005)indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5,especially in simulating precipitation *** averages for changes of most indices are found larger in CMIP6 than in *** emblematic annual mean temperature,when averaged over the whole of China in CMIP6,increases by 1.49,2.21,and 3.53℃(relative to1985–2005)for 1.5,2,and 3℃ above-preindustrial global warming levels,while the counterpart in CMIP5 is 1.20,1.93 and 3.39℃ ***,total precipitation increases by 5.3%,8.6%,and16.3%in CMIP6 and by 4.4%,7.0%and 12.8%in CMIP5,*** spatial distribution of changes for extreme indices is generally consistent in both CMIP5 and CMIP6,but with significantly higher increases in CMIP6 over Northeast and Northwest China for the hottest day temperature,and South China for the coldest night *** the south bank of the Yangtze River,and most regions around40°N,CMIP6 shows higher increases for both total precipitation and heavy *** projected difference between CMIP6 and CMIP5 is mainly attributable to the physical upgrading of climate models and largely independent from their emission scenarios.

关键词： Climate extremes Global warming targets Climate model assessment CMIP6-CMIP5 comparison China regional climate

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2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1001-1016页

作者： Wenxia ZHANG Robin CLARK Tianjun ZHOU laurent li Chao li Juan RIVERA lixia ZHANG Kexin GUI Tingyu ZHANG Lan li Rongyun PAN Yongjun CHEN Shijie TANG Xin HUANG Shuai HU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75230France Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología Y Ciencias Ambientales(IANIGLA)CCT CONICETMendoza CP 5500Argentina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center Shanghai 201306China

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 *** in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the ***,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate *** also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme *** extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood *** extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

关键词： weather and climate extremes temperature extremes extreme precipitation drought wildfires

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基于拉格朗日方法的中国东部雨季水汽输送垂直特征

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大气科学 2022年第2期46卷 380-392页

作者：施逸江志红李肇新南京市气象局南京210019 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室南京210044 法国巴黎索邦大学气象动力学实验室法国巴黎

利用基于拉格朗日轨迹追踪模式(HYSPliT),结合区域源汇归属法,追踪1961~2010年中国东部地区雨带推进过程中各雨季后向轨迹,定量确定各雨季不同垂直层上的水汽输送路径与水汽贡献。结果表明在南海夏季风爆发前的华南前汛期,低层最主要水... 详细信息

利用基于拉格朗日轨迹追踪模式(HYSPliT),结合区域源汇归属法,追踪1961~2010年中国东部地区雨带推进过程中各雨季后向轨迹,定量确定各雨季不同垂直层上的水汽输送路径与水汽贡献。结果表明在南海夏季风爆发前的华南前汛期,低层最主要水汽通道为太平洋通道,轨迹占比达到52.3%,中高层最主要的水汽通道为印度洋通道,占比超过37%;水汽主要源自低层的西太平洋和中国东部地区,水汽贡献均在20%以上。南海季风爆发后的华南前汛期,低层到高层最强水汽通道均为印度洋通道,特别是中层,轨迹数量达到了65.6%;印度洋源地的贡献明显增加,中高层水汽主要源自印度洋,低层最主要的水汽源地为中国东部和南海。江淮梅雨时低层最主要通道为太平洋通道,中高层最主要通道为印度洋通道,相比华南前汛期,在中高层印度洋通道减弱,而西风通道增强。华北雨季中,低层最主要水汽通道为太平洋通道,而中高层最主要的水汽通道为欧亚大陆中纬西风通道。江淮梅雨和华北雨季中,最主要的源地为中低层的中国东部地区和西太平洋地区,特别是华北雨季中,来自中国东部局地低层的水汽达到了43.1%,表明低层局地蒸发对华北雨季降水起到至关重要的作用。

关键词：拉格朗日轨迹追踪拉格朗日轨迹追踪模式(HYSPliT) 水汽输送垂直结构

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CMIP5气候模式对东亚地区对流和层云降水量和降水发生频率的模拟评估

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高原气象 2016年第6期35卷 1524-1539页

作者：孙悦吴统文金霞李肇新中国气象科学研究院北京100081 国家气候中心北京100081 法国原子能和替代能源委员会气候和环境科学实验室法国伊维特河畔吉夫91191 法国国家科学研究中心/皮埃尔和玛丽.居里大学动力气象实验室法国巴黎75005

利用融合降水数据和TRMM卫星3A25月平均降水数据,评估了参与第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的19个海气耦合模式模拟的东亚地区降水总量、对流和层云降水量和降水发生频率的结果。结果表明：（1）各模式都能较好地模拟东亚地区降水的... 详细信息

利用融合降水数据和TRMM卫星3A25月平均降水数据,评估了参与第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的19个海气耦合模式模拟的东亚地区降水总量、对流和层云降水量和降水发生频率的结果。结果表明：（1）各模式都能较好地模拟东亚地区降水的气候态,高分辨率和中等分辨率模式能够模拟出喜马拉雅山南坡、中国南方以及洋面上的强降水中心,但低分辨率模式模拟结果较差;各模式对秋季和冬季降水量模拟结果较好,与观测值的空间平均相关系数均〉0.7,而春季和夏季的模拟结果相对较差,相关系数分别为0.50和0.61。（2）TRMM卫星数据表明,对流降水中心主要分布在菲律宾岛、孟加拉湾和青藏高原南部,而层云降水中心主要分布在青藏高原南部、长江下游地区、中国东海以及孟加拉湾。对于二者的模拟,对流降水的模拟较好,层云降水的模拟存在热带地区降水量偏小的问题,高、中分辨率模式的模拟能力要高于低分辨模式。（3）对于东亚地区总降水发生频率的模拟,有13个模式模拟的降水频率〉60%;对于不同降水强度发生频率的模拟,强度在0.001~1 mm·h-1之间绝大多数模式模拟的发生频率最高,而超过1.0 mm·h-1的降水事件都相当少;（4）对于层云降水发生频率的模拟,高、中分辨率模式的结果与多模式平均结果更为接近,但对于对流降水,高分辨率模式和中等分辨率模式模拟能力并没有明显优于低分辨模式。总体而言,高、中分辨率模式对于东亚地区降水模拟效果更好,因而提高模式水平分辨率成为改善气候模式模拟东亚地区降水能力的重要途径。

关键词： CMIP5 对流降水层云降水模拟评估

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An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2014年第1期28卷 34-56页

作者：吴统文宋连春李伟平王在志张华辛晓歌张艳武张莉李江龙吴方华刘一鸣张芳史学丽储敏张洁房永杰汪方路屹雄刘向文魏敏刘茜霞周文艳董敏赵其庚季劲钧 laurent li 周明煜 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration(CMA) National Meteorological Information Center CMA Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM） and its four component models （atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice）. Two recent versions are described： BCC_CSMI.1 with coarse resolution （approximately 2.8125°× 2.8125°） and BCC_CSMI.I（m） with moderate resolution （approximately 1.125°×1.125°）. Both versions are fully cou- pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five （CMIP5） in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （1PCC） Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in- dicate that the higher resolution in BCC CSMI.I（m） improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSMI.1, particularly on regional scales.

关键词： Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_ CSM) atmospheric general circulationmodel land surface model oceanic general circulation model sea ice model

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北京气候中心气候系统模式研发进展——在气候变化研究中的应用

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气象学报 2014年第1期72卷 12-29页

作者：吴统文宋连春李伟平王在志张华辛晓歌张艳武张莉李江龙吴方华刘一鸣张芳史学丽储敏张洁房永杰汪方路屹雄刘向文魏敏刘茜霞周文艳董敏赵其庚季劲钧 laurent li 周明煜中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081 中国气象局国家气象信息中心北京100081 中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029 法国动力气象国家实验室巴黎75005 国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心北京100081

较全面地介绍了北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)研发所取得的一些进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用,重点介绍了全球近280 km较低分辨率的全球海-陆-气-冰-生物多圈层耦合的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1和110 km中等大气分辨率的BCC_CSM1.1(... 详细信息

较全面地介绍了北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)研发所取得的一些进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用,重点介绍了全球近280 km较低分辨率的全球海-陆-气-冰-生物多圈层耦合的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1和110 km中等大气分辨率的BCC_CSM1.1(m),以及大气、陆面、海洋、海冰各分量模式的发展。BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)气候系统模式均包含了全球碳循环和动态植被过程。当给定全球人类活动导致的碳源排放后,就可以模拟和预估人类活动对气候变化的影响。BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)已应用于IPCC AR5模式比较,为中外开展气候变化机理分析和未来气候变化预估提供了大量的试验数据。还介绍了BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)参与国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的大量试验分析评估结果,BCC_CSM能够较好地模拟20世纪气温和降水等气候平均态和季节变化特征,以及近1000年的历史气候变化,所预估的未来100年气候变化与国际上其他模式的CMIP5试验预估结果相当。初步的分析表明,分辨率相对高的BCC_CSM1.1(m)在区域气候平均态的模拟上优于分辨率较低的BCC_CSM1.1。

关键词：北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM) 大气环流模式陆面过程模式海洋环流模式

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Expectation-maximisation for speech source separation using convolutive transfer function

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CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology 2019年第1期4卷 47-53页

作者： Xiaofei li laurent Girin Radu Horaud INRIA Grenoble Rhoe-Alpes Montbonnot Saint-MartinFrance GIPSA-lab Saint-Martin d’HèresFrance UniversitéGrenoble Alpes Saint-Martin d’HèresFrance

This study addresses the problem of under-determined speech source separation from multichannel microphone signals,*** convolutive mixtures of multiple *** time-domain signals are first transformed to the short-time Fourier transform(STFT)*** represent the room filters in the STFT domain,instead of the widely used narrowband assumption,the authors propose to use a more accurate model,*** convolutive transfer function(CTF).At each frequency band,the CTF coefficients of the mixing filters and the STFT coefficients of the sources are jointly estimated by maximising the likelihood of the microphone signals,which is resolved by an expectation-maximisation *** show that the proposed method provides very satisfactory performance under highly reverberant environments.

关键词： STFT CTF

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Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Autumn Drought Trend over China from 1961 to 2014

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 251-260页

作者： Xuyu ZHANG Jinhua YU laurent ZXli Wei li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France

Understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought is of great significance to the prevention of its adverse *** drought indices,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),are used here for the detection and attribution of autumn droughts in China,and for the exploration of the role played by the anthropogenic climate *** is only related to precipitation,but SPEI involves both precipitation and potential *** their trend’s spatial patterns,the historical simulations(including all forcings,noted as ALL)from 11 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,as an ensemble,are able to reproduce their observational *** shows wetting trend in the north of 35°N and drying trend in the *** shows drying trend in almost whole *** drying trend in historical simulations ALL is significantly stronger,compared with the counterpart from the accompanying simulations(called NAT)with only natural forcings *** result clearly indicates that anthropogenic climate change plays a dominant role in the enhancement of autumn drought in China.A more rigorous detection work is also performed with the signal’s fingerprint of ALL(and NAT)projected onto the observation and assessed with the background noise from no external-forcing control *** trend pattern signal in ALL is significantly detected in observation for both SPI and SPEI,with a more pronounced signal in SPEI than in SPI,while the signal of NAT is not detected for neither SPI nor ***,extreme droughts(with indices beyond-2)are assessed in terms of probability ratio between ALL and *** is shown that the anthropogenic precipitation change plays a leading role in the south of 35°N,while the anthropogenic temperature change leads in the north.

关键词： drought anthropogenic effect detection and attribution standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)

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Local and teleconnected temperature effects of afforestation and vegetation greening in China

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National Science Review 2020年第5期7卷 897-912页

作者： Yue li Shilong Piao Anping Chen Philippe Ciais laurent Z.X.li Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Biology Colorado State University Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Commissariata l Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives–CNRS–Universite de Versailles Saint-QuentinUniversite Paris-Saclay Laboratoire de Met eorologie Dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversiteEcole Normale Superieure Ecole Polytechnique

Afforestation in China provides carbon sequestration and prevents soil erosion, but its remote impacts on climate in other regions via the coupling of forest energy fluxes with atmospheric circulation are largely unknown. Here, we prescribe inventory-based forest cover change and satellite-observed leaf area index from 1982 to 2011 in a coupled land-atmosphere model to simulate their biophysical climate effects. Both local and global surface air temperatures show a seasonal contrast in response to past vegetation cover expansion over China:a phenomenon we primarily attribute to a variation of seasonality of vegetation greening. A large cooling in spring results in concurrent decreases in geopotential height over China and zonal wind over Mongolia, causing a dipole structure in the upper troposphere over the Arctic. This accounts for～58%of simulated spring warming over the Russian Arctic and～61% of simulated spring cooling over the Canadian Artic. Our results imply that spring vegetation dynamics in China may affect climate in northern high latitudes.

关键词： afforestation vegetation greening China biophysical climate effect coupled land-atmosphere model

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Factors affecting trace element content in periurban market garden subsoil in Yunnan Province,China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2011年第3期23卷 488-496页

作者： Yanqun zu laurent Bock Christian Schvartz Gilles Colinet Yuan li College of Resources and Environment Yunnan Agricultural University Kunming 650201 China Laboratory of Soil Science Gembloux Agro-bio Technology University Liege University Gembloux Belgium Laboratory of Soil and Environment Institute of Advanced Agriculture Catholic University Lille France

Field investigations were conducted to measure subsoil trace element content and factors influencing content in an intensive periurban market garden in Chenggong County, Yunnan Province, South-West China. The area was divided into three different geomorphological units： specifically, mountain （M）, transition （T） and lacustrine （L）. Mean trace element content in subsoil were determined for Pb （58.2 mg/kg）, Cd （0.89 mg/kg）, Cu （129.2 mg/kg）, and Zn （97.0 mg/kg）. Strong significant relationships between trace element content in topsoil and subsoil were observed. Both Pb and Zn were accumulated in topsoil （RTS （ratio of mean trace element in topsoil to subsoil） of Pb and Zn ≥1.0） and Cd and Cu in subsoil （RTS of Cd and Cu≤1.0）. Subsoil trace element content was related to relief, stoniness, soil color, clay content, and cation exchange capacity. Except for 7.5 YR （yellow-red） color, trace element content increased with color intensity from brown to reddish brown. Significant positive relationships were observed between Fe content and that of Pb and Cu. Trace element content in mountain unit subsoil was higher than in transition and lacustrine units （M 〉 T 〉 L）, except for Cu （T 〉 M 〉 L）. Mean trace element content in calcareous subsoil was higher than in sandstone and shale. Mean trace element content in clay texture subsoil was higher than in sandy and sandy loam subsoil, and higher Cu and Zn content in subsoil with few mottles. It is possible to model Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn distribution in subsoil physico-chemical characteristics to help improve agricultural practice.

关键词： trace elements subsoil topsoil relationships

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