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NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY:A DRAMA THEORETIC APPROACH

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2009年第4期18卷 437-460页

作者： jason k. levy Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University

While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision mak.rs, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy mak.rs to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.

关键词： Nuclear non-proliferation strategic conflict drama theory international security

A CASE FOR SUSTAINABLE SECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEERING:INTEGRATING NATIONAL,HUMAN,ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2009年第4期18卷 385-402页

作者： jason k. levy L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University

In the wak. of the September 11,2001 terrorist attack., there is a growing sense of insecurity felt by many citizens around the world. Sustainable security, with roots in the sustainable development and human security literature, seek. positive transformations for the co-evolving and mutually dependent human-environmental condition by integrating （and subsuming） national, human, environmental, and energy security concems and capitalizing on opportunities provided by human creativity, diplomatic openings, modernization and environmental change. The field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering is proposed for protecting, restoring, designing, and implementing a set of integrated natural and man-made processes that equitably and responsibly meet the biophysical needs of human communities, while maintaining long-term security, respecting financial constraints, meeting ecological limits, and improving institutional arrangements for transparent and effective governance. Scenario planning is shown to help promote sustainable security by identifying the preconditions of instability and helping to proactively address them in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. The six papers published in this featured collection cross policy domains, geographic, political, and sectoral boundaries and were discussed at forums sponsored by the Systems Engineering and Global Policy group. Collectively, they demonstrate the quality, breadth and depth of systems engineering methodologies that are used to promote sustainable security.

关键词： Sustainable security systems engineering national security human security environment and energy scenario planning

ADVANCES IN SUSTAINABLE SECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WITH DRAMA THEORY (DT) Ⅱ

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2009年第4期18卷 403-422页

作者： jason k. levy Nigel HOWARD Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University Sheffield Hallam University

We put forth Drama Theory II （DT II） as a formal multiple participant decision mak.ng framework.that can be used to systematically model complex security challenges, and advance the field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering. DT II is defined as a theory of ＂large world＂ pre-game communication and equilibrium selection. While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to resolve environmental conflicts and promote global security, traditional game theory assumes that decision mak.rs, options, and preferences are fixed. A mathematical treatment of k.y drama theoretic concepts （i.e. positions, intentions, doubts and dilemmas） is provided. The dynamics of the drama theoretic process are discussed and the expected equilibrium set is derived. The fundamental theorem of drama theory is proven and all theoretical results are applied to promote sustainable security solutions. It is emphasized that DT II represents a flexible systems engineering technique to address time-sensitive, multi-faceted, and complex multiple participant negotiations.

关键词： Drama Theory II sustainable security systems engineering game theory

GEOSENSING SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR OCEAN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2010年第1期19卷 22-35页

作者： Hamid ASSILZADEH jason k. levy Xin WANG Yang GAO Zhinong ZHONG Department of Geomaties Engineering University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University Department of Geomatics Engineering University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada School of Electronic Science and Engineering National University of Defense Technology Changsha China

Three major threats to ocean security and coastal zone sustainability - global warming, the loss of ocean biodiversity, and pollution - are combining to threaten the ecological integrity of our marine environment and life support systems. We put forward a geomatics-based systems engineering architecture to identify the location and extent of oil spills, thereby improving the ecological integrity of the world＇s oceans and helping contingency planners to determine required assets, personnel and other resources. This real-time, event-based and cost effective emergency management decision support system can aid in the classification, detection, and monitoring of oil spills in the marine environment. The developed Synthetic-Aperture Radar （SAR） processing and calibration techniques efficiently monitor environmental changes in inaccessible ocean regions, characterize oil spill scenarios, and help to identify spill sources. The system is used to improve emergency management in the Gulf of Mexico, with application to oil spills arising from Hurricane k.trina.

关键词： Ocean security geosensing systems engineering coastal zone management SAR

The Impact of Agricultural Practices in China on Land-Atmosphere Interactions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第4期28卷 821-831页

作者：徐兴奎 jason k.levy State k.y Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science L.Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond

Human-induced land use changes and the resulting alterations in vegetation features are major but poorly recognized drivers of regional climatic *** order to investigate the impacts of anthropogenically-induced seasonal vegetation cover changes on regional climate in China,harmonic analysis is applied to 1982-2000 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（NOAA） Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer（AVVHRR）-derived normalized difference vegetation index（NDVI） time series（ten day interval data）.For two climatic divisions of South China,it is shown that the first harmonic term is in phase with air temperature,while the second and third harmonics are in phase with agricultural *** Penman-Monteith Equation and the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration（CRAE） model suggest that monthly mean evapotranspiration is out of phase with temperature and precipitation in regions with signiffcant second or third ***,seasonal vegetation cover changes associated with agricultural cultivation are identiffed：for cropped areas,the temperature and precipitation time series have a single maximum value,while the monthly evapotranspiration time series has a bimodal *** is hypothesized that multi-cropping causes the land surface albedo to sharply increase during harvesting,thereby altering the energy distribution ratio and contributing to observed seasonal vegetation cover changes.

关键词： NDVI land surface cover phenologies multi-crop latent heat discrete Fourier transform

The Influence of Land Surface Changes on Regional Climate in Northwest China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第3期24卷 527-537页

作者：徐兴奎张凤 jason k.levy International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Western Washington University Department of Environmental Studies Huxley College of the Environment516 High StreetBellinghamWA98225

Land surface changes effect the regional climate due to the complex coupling of land-atmosphere interactions. From 1995 to 2000, a decrease in the vegetation density and an increase in ground-level thermodynamic activity has been documented by multiple data sources in Northwest China, including meteorological, reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration＇s （NOAA） Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder （TOVS） satellite remote sensing data. As the ground-level thermodynamic activity increases, humid air from the surrounding regions converge toward desert （and semi-desert） regions, causing areas with high vegetation cover to become gradually more arid. Furthermore, land surface changes in Northwest China are responsible for a decrease in total cloud cover, a decline in the fraction of low and middle clouds, an increase in high cloud cover （due to thermodynamic activity） and other regional climatic adaptations. It is proposed that, beginning in 1995, these cloud cover changes contributed to a ＂green- house＂ effect, leading to the rapid air temperature increases and other regional climate impacts that have been observed over Northwest China.

关键词： land surface features climatic effect Northwest China TOVS NOAA-AVHRR

Spatiotemporal vegetation cover variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under global climate change

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第6期53卷 915-922页

作者： XU Xingk.i CHEN Hong jason k.levy Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Westem Washington University Huxley College of the Environment Department of Environmental Studies 516 High Street Bellingham WA 98225 USA

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and the related Principal Components (PC) analysis are used to extract valuable vegetation cover derived information from the National Oceanic and Atmos- pheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR)'s Leaf Area Index (LAI) satellite images. Results suggest that from 1982 to 2000 global climate change has contributed to an increase in vegetation cover in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The correlation between rainfall and LAI EOF PC1 and PC2 indicates that rainfall is the major climatic factor influencing interannual variations of average vegetation cover throughout the entire Plateau. However, annual mean vegetation cover trends in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly out of phase with air temperature increasing, which is primarily responsible for nonsynchro- nous changes of vegetation cover. In the southern ridge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, recent warming trends contribute to humid weather and favorable conditions for vegetation growth. By contrast, higher temperatures have led to arid conditions and insufficient rainfall in the northern part of the Plateau, leading to drought and other climatic conditions which are not conducive to increased vegetation cover.

关键词：青藏高原气候变化植被覆盖率时空变化经验正交函数

INTELLIGENT SECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MODELING FIRE CRITICAL INCIDENTS:TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE SECURITY

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2009年第4期18卷 477-488页

作者： Ali ASGARY Ali SADEGHI NAINI jason levy Emergency Management York University Faculty of Geography University of Tehran Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Western Ontario Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Virginia Commonwealth University

An intelligent security systems engineering approach is used to analyze fire and explosive critical incidents, a growing concern in urban communities. A feed-forward back.propagation neural network.models the damages arising from these critical incidents. The overall goal is to promote fire safety and sustainable security. The intelligent security systems engineering prediction model uses a fully connected multilayer neural network. and considers a number of factors related to the fire or explosive incident including the type of property affected, the time of day, and the ignition source. The network.was trained on a large number of critical incident records reported in Toronto, Canada between 2000 and 2006. Our intelligent security systems engineering approach can help emergency responders by improving cr^tical incident analysis, sustainable security, and fire risk.management.

关键词： Intelligent security systems engineering fire feed-forward neural network. critical incidents

ADVANCES IN DECISION ANALYSIS AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MANAGING LARGE-SCALE ENTERPRISES IN A VOLATILE WORLD: INTEGRATING BENEFITS, OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS AND RISk. (BOCR) WITH THE BUSINESS MOTIVATION MODEL (BMM)

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2006年第2期15卷 141-153页

作者： Tom FEGLAR jason k.levy Tatiana FEGLAR Tomas FEGLAR International Consultant in Information Systems Research and Architecture Czech Republic Brandon University Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies (A-DES)BrandonManitobaczCanada R7A 6A9 Company-Ing.Tomas Feglar CSc.Czech Republic Company-Ing.Tomas Feglar CSc.Czech Republic JR

Over the past few decades, innovations in Information and Communication Technologies （ICT） have led to a significant increase in the complexity of enterprise information systems. This has led to new challenges for enterprise architects, systems engineers, business managers and other decision mak.rs who must cope with the complexity of business plans and processes （particularly automated engineering processes）. In order to better manage this complexity, the Business Rule Group （BRG） has put forth the Business Motivation Model （BMM）. The original BMM uses a SWOT （Strength, Weak.ess, Opportunity, and Threat） decision analysis approach. However, the SWOT framework.contains significant limitations with respect to decision mak.ng and ICT risk., hampering the decision mak.ng ability of enterprise architects, business managers, engineers, and other decision mak.rs. The AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） and ANP （Analytic Network.Process） are among the most widely used decision mak.ng tools： they commonly implement a Benefit - Opportunity - Cost - Risk.（BOCR） analysis to improve the effectiveness of business decision mak.ng. A new approach is put forth that replaces the original SWOT assessment with an ANP-based BOCR analysis. As well, the original BMM is modified and applied in a Component Architecture Framework.（CAF）.

关键词： Analytic Network.Process (ANP) Business Motivation Model (BMM) architecture framework Benefits-Opportunities-Costs-Risk. (BOCR)