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Navigating Market Choices: Understanding Carrot Market Outlet Selection among Smallholder Farmers in Kenya

Agricultural Sciences 2024年第6期15卷 676-703页

作者： Hillary Kiprotich Ngeno Ngenoh Evans Oscar Ayuya Ingasia Hillary K. bett State Department for Crop Development and Agricultural Research Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Fisheries and Cooperatives Nairobi Kenya Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management Egerton University Egerton Kenya Brooklyn Economic Consulting Limited Nairobi Kenya

This research delves into the hurdles and strategies aimed at augmenting the market involvement of smallholder carrot farmers in Nakuru County, Kenya. Employing a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, it scrutinizes the factors influencing the selection of marketing outlets among carrot farmers. The findings unveil that a significant majority (81%) of surveyed farmers actively participate in diverse market outlets, encompassing the farm gate, cleaning point, local market, external market, and export market. Notably, pivotal buyers include aggregators, brokers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers, with transactions predominantly occurring at the farm level. Additionally, the analysis discerns substantial influences of socio-economic characteristics, experiential factors, and geographical proximity on farmers’ choices of market outlets. Specifically, gender, age, land size, farming experience, and distance to markets emerge as critical determinants. Moreover, the study delves into the examination of market margins along the carrot value chain, shedding light on the potential profitability of carrot farming in the region. Remarkably, higher average gross margins are identified in export and external markets, signaling lucrative prospects for farmers targeting these segments. However, disparities in profit distribution between farmers and traders underscore the necessity for interventions to ensure equitable value distribution throughout the value chain. These findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions to tackle challenges and foster inclusive agricultural development. Strategies such as farmer organizations, contracting, and vertical integration are advocated to enhance market access and profitability for smallholder carrot farmers. Thus, this study enriches our comprehension of the dynamics within carrot value chains and provides valuable insights for policymakers and development practitioners aiming to uplift rural livelihoods and bolster food security.

关键词： Market Outlet Selection Smallholder Farmers Multinomial Logit Model Determinants Carrot Value Chain

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Mobilizing Crop Biodiversity

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Molecular Plant 2020年第10期13卷 1341-1344页

作者： Susan McCouch Zahra Katy Navabi Michael Abberton Noelle L.Anglin Rosa Lia Barbieri Michael Baum kirstin bett Helen Booker Gerald L.Brown Glenn J.Bryan Luigi Cattivelli David Charest Kellye Eversole Marcelo Freitas Kioumars Ghamkhar Dario Grattipaglia Robert Henry Maria Cleria Valadares Inglis Tofazzal Islam Zakaria Kehel Paul J.Kersey Graham J.King Stephen Kresovich Emily Marden Sean Mayes Marie Noelle Ndjiondjiop Henry T.Nguyen Samuel Rezende Paiva Roberto Papa Peter W.B.Phillips Awais Rasheed Christopher Richards Mathieu Flouard Maria Jose Amstalden Sampaio Uwe Scholz Paul D.Shaw Brad Sherman S.Evan Staton Nils Stein Jan Svensson Mark Tester Jose Francisco Montenegro Valls Rajeev Varshney Stephen Visscher Eric von Wettberg Robbie Waugh Peter Wenzl Loren H.Rieseberg Plant Breeding and Genetics School of Integrated Plant SciencesCornell UniversityIthacaNY14853USA DivSeek Global Institute for Food Security110 Gymnasium PlaceUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonSKS7N 0W9Canada lnternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture(IITA) PMB 5320Oyo RdIbadanNigeria International Potato Center(CIP)1895 Avenida La Molina Lima Peru 12Lima 15023Peru Embrapa Genetic Resources and Biotechnology Parque Estacjao BiologicaFinal Av W5 NorteCaixa Postal 0237270770-917-Brasilia DFBrazil International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas(I CAR DA) Station Exp.INRA-Quich.Rue Hafiane Cherkaoui.Agdal.Rabat-Instituts10111RabatMorocco Department of Plant Sciences University of Saskatchewan51 Campus Dr.SaskatoonSK S7N 5A8Canada Department of Plant Agriculture University of GuelphRm 316Crop Science Bldg50 Stone Rd EGuelphON N1G 2W1Canada Genome Prairie 111 Research DriveSuite 101SaskatoonSKS7N 3R2Canada The James Hutt on Institute Errol RoadInvergowrieDundeeDD25DAUK CREA Research Centre for Genomics and Bioinformaticsvia San Protaso 302Fiorenzuola d'Arda29017Italy Genome British Columbia 400-575 West 8th AvenueVancouverBCV5Z 0C4Canada International Wheat Genome Sequencing Consortium 2841 NE Marywood CtLee's SummitMO.64086USA Forage Science Grasslands Research CentreAgResearchPalmerston North4410New Zealand Queensla nd Alliance for Agriculture and Food Inn ovation University of QueenslandBrisbaneQLD 4072Australia Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering(IBGE) Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural UniversityGazipur 1706Bangladesh Southern Cross University PO Box 157LismoreNSW 2480Australia Royal Botanic Gardens KewRichmondSurreyTW93AEUK Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Crop Improvement 431 Weill HallCornell UniversityIthacaNY14853USA Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre University of British ColumbiaVancouverBC V6R 2A5Canada Crops For the Future(UK)CIC 76-80 Baddow Road ChelmsfordEs

Over the past 70 years,the world has witnessed extraordinary growth in crop productivity,enabled by a suite of technological advances,including higher yielding crop varieties,improved farm management,synthetic agrochemicals,and agricultural *** this"Green Revolution"intensified crop production,and is credited with reducing famine and malnutrition,its benefits were accompanied by several undesirable collateral effects(Pingali,2012).These include a narrowing of agricultural biodiversity,stemming from increased monoculture and greater reliance on a smaller number of crops and crop varieties for the majority of our *** reduction in diversity has created vulnerabilities to pest and disease epidemics,climate variation,and ultimately to human health(Harlan,1972).

关键词： intensified crops agricultural

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Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.bett Nick DUNSTONE Nicola GOLDING Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

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Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 59-68页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Philip E. bett Adam A. SCAIFE Nicola MARTIN Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK

Variations of surface air temperature （SAT） are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable skill over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations axe larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China： interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.

关键词： seasonal forecast western China surface air temperature predictability warming trend

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Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Nick J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Philip E.bett Met Office Exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast skill EASMI monthly mean rainfall East Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

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The Amazon Anthropology

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Journal of Philosophy Study 2017年第9期7卷 477-484页

作者： Geneci bett FBN College

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.bett Gill M.MARTIN Nick DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Moving interdisciplinary science forward:integrating participatory modelling with mathematical modelling of zoonotic disease in Africa

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2016年第1期5卷 149-160页

作者： Catherine Grant Giovanni Lo Iacono Vupenyu Dzingirai Bernard bett Thomas R.A.Winnebah Peter M.Atkinson ESRC Social Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability(STEPS)CentreInstitute of Development StudiesLibrary RoadFalmerBrightonUK Geography and Environment University of SouthamptonHighfieldSouthampton SO171BJUK Lancaster University LancasterUK University of Utrecht UtrechtUK Queen’s University Belfast BelfastUK Department of Veterinary Medicine Disease Dynamics UnitUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK Centre for Applied Social Sciences Trust 5 Aberdeen RoadP O Box A1333AvondaleHarareZimbabwe International Livestock Research Institute Naivasha RoadKabeteNairobiKenya Institute of Geography and Development Studies School of Environmental SciencesNjala University17Henry StreetFreetownSierra Leone

This review outlines the benefits of using multiple approaches to improve model design and facilitate multidisciplinary research into infectious diseases,as well as showing and proposing practical examples of effective *** looks particularly at the benefits of using participatory research in conjunction with traditional modelling methods to potentially improve disease research,control and *** approaches can lead to more realistic mathematical models which in turn can assist with making policy decisions that reduce disease and benefit local *** emergence,risk,spread and control of diseases are affected by many complex bio-physical,environmental and socio-economic *** include climate and environmental change,land-use variation,changes in population and people’s *** evidence base for this scoping review comes from the work of a consortium,with the aim of integrating modelling approaches traditionally used in epidemiological,ecological and development research.A total of five examples of the impacts of participatory research on the choice of model structure are *** 1 focused on using participatory research as a tool to structure a *** 2 looks at identifying the most relevant parameters of the *** 3 concentrates on identifying the most relevant regime of the system(e.g.,temporal stability or otherwise),Example 4 examines the feedbacks from mathematical models to guide participatory research and Example 5 goes beyond the so-far described two-way interplay between participatory and mathematical approaches to look at the integration of multiple methods and *** scoping review describes examples of best practice in the use of participatory methods,illustrating their potential to overcome disciplinary hurdles and promote multidisciplinary collaboration,with the aim of making models and their predictions more useful for decision-making and policy formulation.

关键词： Africa Zoonoses Modelling Interdisciplinary One health Participatory Disease

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Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP Philip E.bett Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL Adam A.SCAIFE Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon *** forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk East China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

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Estimating farmers’stated willingness to accept pay for ecosystem services:case of Lake Naivasha watershed Payment for Ecosystem Services scheme-Kenya

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Ecological Processes 2016年第1期5卷 180-194页

作者： J.M.Nyongesa H.K.bett J.K.Lagat O.I.Ayuya Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management Egerton UniversityP.O.Box 53620115 Egerton-NjoroKenya

Introduction:Lake Naivasha watershed is recognized for its contribution to Kenya’s national gross domestic product from the export of horticultural *** horticultural investment downstream depends mainly on the Lake’s *** fresh water lake lacks surface outflow,and its recharge depends on river Malewa flowing from upper catchment in Aberdare ***,unsustainable land use practices in the upper catchment has led to increasing sediment loading and pollution in river Malewa which affects water quality in the Lake *** for Environmental Services(PES)scheme has been initiated as an alternative incentive approach to motivate upstream smallholder farmers adopt sustainable land use practices for conservation of watershed *** paper analyzes willingness to accept pay(WTA)as proxy economic measure of environmental service(ES)value and determines socio-economic factors influencing farmers WTA for watershed *** analyzed the WTA and characterized WTA underlying socio-economic determinants in two PES intervention sites in ***:The objective of this study was to estimate WTA and determine socio-economic factors influencing ***-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 200 PES farmers through face-to-face *** applied contingent valuation(CV)and logistic regression for data analyses to elicit farmer’s WTA estimates to implement PES farm practices and determine socio-economic factors influencing WTA,***:Results revealed over 90% of respondents were farmers and 60% had primary level of *** household farm size was 2.305 acres and family size was six members on *** recorded a monthly marginal household increase in gross income from Kshs.6891.969(US$68.92)before PES to Kshs.11,011.48(US$110.12)with PES *** estimated annual lowest and highest WTA for PES farm practices were at Kshs.8835(US$88.35)for grass strip and Kshs.21,847.500(US$218.48

关键词： Conservation Ecosystem services Livelihoods Payment for Ecosystem Services Practice Watershed Willingness to accept pay

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