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Modeling severities of motorcycle crashes using random parameters

Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2021年第2期8卷 225-236页

作者： Ahmed Farid khaled ksaibati Wyoming Technology Transfer Center Department of Civil and Architectural EngineeringUniversity of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA

One of the critical areas of road safety is motorcycle safety. Motorcyclists are more vulnerable to injuries than occupants of other motor vehicles when involved in *** have studied the relationships between motorcycle crash severity and crash contributing factors. They are crash characteristics, roadway geometric design features,traffic characteristics, socio-demographics and environmental conditions. However, few researchers considered unobserved heterogeneity effects when modeling motorcycle crash injury severities, let alone interaction effects. In this research, motorcycle crashes in Wyoming that occurred from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. Specifically, the injury severities of single motorcycle crashes and multiple vehicle crashes involving motorcycles were modeled. The response was whether the motorcycle crash incurred an incapacitating injury or fatality or not. The binary logistic regression and mixed binary logistic regression modeling structures were implemented. The mixed models revealed effects that otherwise would have been undisclosed in the binary logistic regression models’ results. According to the results of single motorcycle crashes, the majority of motorcycle-animal crashes and of motorcycle-barrier crashes were likely to be severe relative to other single motorcycle crashes. It was also found that horizontal curves increased the risk of severe *** riders were found to be less at risk of being gravely injured in single motorcycle crashes than older riders as well. Furthermore, riding under the influence and high posted speed limits increased the odds of severe crashes regardless of whether the crashes were single motorcycle crashes or multiple vehicle crashes involving motorcycles. Additionally,the mixed models uncovered interaction effects and unobserved effects pertaining to speed limits.

关键词： Transportation engineering Motorcycle safety Injury severity Logistic regression Random parameters

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Partial proportional odds model for analyzing pedestrian crashes,threshold heterogeneity by scale and proportional odds factor

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2022年第6期9卷 969-977页

作者： Mahdi Rezapour khaled ksaibati Wyoming Technology Transfer Center University of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA

Despite low traffic in Wyoming,pedestrian crash severity accounts for a high number of fatalities in the *** this study was conducted to highlights factors contributing to those *** results highlighted that drivers under influence,type of vehicle,location of crashes,estimated speed of vehicles,driving over the recommended speed are some of factors contributing to the severity of *** this study,we used proportional odds model which assumes that the impact of each attribute is consistent or proportional across various threshold ***,it has been argued that this assumption might be unrealistic,especially at the presence of extreme ***,the assumption was relaxed in this study by shifting the thresholds based on some explanatory attributes,or proportional odds *** addition,we accounted for the spread rate,or scale,of the model’s latent distribution of pedestrian *** results highlighted that the partial proportional odds model through proportional odds factor and scale effects result in a significant improvement in model fit compared with the standard proportional odds *** were also made across standard normal,simple partial ordinal model,and partial ordinal accounting for scale *** addition,various potential threshold structures such as symmetric and flexible were considered,but similar goodness of fits were observed across all those *** discussion has been made regarding the formulation of the implemented methodology,and its implications.

关键词： Partial proportional odds model Pedestrian crashes Scale heterogeneity Proportional odds factor Vulnerable road users Drivers’lack of attention

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Impact of combined alignments and adverse weather conditions on vehicle skidding

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2023年第1期10卷 116-131页

作者： Anas Alrejjal khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of WyomingLaramieWY 82070USA

Roadways in Wyoming are characterized by challenging horizontal profiles,vertical profiles,a combination of the two and adverse weather conditions,all of which affect vehicle *** this study,we investigated the impact of different operating speeds when negotiating combined horizontal and vertical curves under unfavorable environmental conditions on Wyoming’s interstates via vehicle dynamics simulation *** simulation tools provided the acting forces on each tire of the vehicle and the side friction(skidding)*** allowed for examining the interaction between vehicle dynamics and road geometry in such ***,linear regression analysis was implemented to investigate the skidding margins based on the simulation results to demonstrate when a vehicle is more likely to deviate from its desired ***,this examines the contributing factors that significantly influence the skidding *** results indicated that:1)the skidding margins are dramatically decreased by adverse weather conditions even with lower degree of curvature and gradient values of combined curves and more particularly at higher operating speeds *** the vehicle speed on the curve by 10%,the skidding margin dropped by 15%.2)Compared to heavy trucks and sports utility vehicles(SUVs),passenger cars require the highest side friction demand.3)The effect of applying brakes on vehicle stability depends on the road surface condition;applying the brakes on snowy road surfaces increases the potential of vehicle skidding especially for heavy *** study assessed the curve speed limits and showed how important to assign safe and appropriate limits speed since the skidding likelihood is significantly sensitive to the vehicle *** study is beneficial to Wyoming’s roadway agencies since hazardous sections having combined horizontal and vertical curves are ***,critical situations that require additional attention from law enforc

关键词： Vehicle dynamics simulations Combined horizontal and vertical curves Skidding margins Operating speed Adverse weather Brakes application

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Evaluating the impact of traffic violations on crash injury severity on Wyoming interstates:An investigation with a random parameters model with heterogeneity in means approach

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2022年第4期9卷 654-665页

作者： Anas Alrejjal Milhan Moomen khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of WyomingLaramieWY 82070USA South Carolina Department of Transportation ColumbiaSC 29202USA

This study investigated the impact of traffic violations on crash injury severity on Wyoming’s interstate highways.A random parameters multinomial logit(MNL)model with heterogeneity in means was estimated as an alternative to the mixed logit *** was done to better account for unobserved heterogeneity in the crash *** per the results,the random parameters model with heterogeneity in means not only exhibited a better fit but also uncovered more insights regarding the factors influencing crash injury *** advanced model showed that traffic violations,crash characteristics and environmental characteristics among other factors impact crash injury severity on Wyoming’s interstate *** regards to traffic violations,driving too fast for prevailing conditions and driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs were identified as the main violations that significantly influenced crash *** other useful insights,the heterogeneity in mean specification indicated that the likelihood of severe injury crashes is increased by the interactive effect between non-trucks(vehicles not classified as trucks)and driving too fast for *** is a significant implication that high speed behavior by non-truck drivers in adverse weather conditions is ranked as one of the hazardous traffic violations on Wyoming’s *** study provided for the first time important information on the impact of traffic violations on crash severity of crashes that occurred on challenging roadways that characterized by mountainous terrain and severe weather *** from the study will help enforcement agencies in the state to better identify appropriate countermeasures to mitigate the impact of violations on crash severity.

关键词： Random parameters Heterogeneity in means Injury severity Interstate safety

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An investigation of influential factors of downgrade truck crashes:A logistic regression approach

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2019年第2期6卷 185-195页

作者： Milhan Moomen Mahdi Rezapour khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of Wyoming

Truck crash occurrence causes extensive damage to lives and property. Truck crashes on downgrades exacerbate these costs due to the likelihood of a runaway being *** agencies have continuously sought engineering measures to reduce the incidence of such crashes. However, most past studies on truck crashes have focused on level roadway sections of highways without considering the effects of downgrades. The difference in geometric characteristics of downgrades and the mechanics of truck operations on such sections mean different factors may be at play in contrast to level roadway *** paper investigated the factors influencing truck crashes on downgrades; an attempt to fill in some of the research gaps. An empirical analysis of factors affecting truck crashes on two-lane downgrade roadways in Wyoming was carried out using a binary logistic regression technique. After calibrating the model, the effect of each significant variable was determined using theoretical concepts established in previous studies and engineering intuition. Crash factors including driver gender and age, weather, lighting and road conditions, number of crest curves, crash type, number of driveways, day of week and posted speed limit were found to be significant. The results of the study offer new understandings into how the identified factors influence truck crashes on downgrades.

关键词： Highway safety Truck crashes Downgrades crashes Crash factors Logistic regression

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Impact of drivers'attributes on children injury severities in traffic crashes

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2023年第4期10卷 647-658页

作者： Sahima Nazneen Ahmed Farid khaled ksaibati HNTB Overland ParkKS 66223USA Caltrans District 3 MarysilCA 95901USA Wyoming Technology Transfer Center Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering and Construction ManagementUniversity of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA

Every year,a substantial number of children sustain injuries and fatalities in motor vehicle crashes in *** the factors contributing to child injury is crucial for the development of appropriate mitigation measures that aid in alleviating the severity of such *** this study,a hierarchical Bayesian binary logit regression model was developed to investigate the factors that contribute to children’s injuries resulting from crashes while accounting for possible intra-class correlation effects(those of unobserved factors common to children involved in the same crash).A strong correlation among crashes justified the use of the hierarchical Bayesian logit *** per the modeling results,the children’s ages,safety restraint types,vehicle types,drivers’ages,alcohol/drug involvement,drivers’seat belt use habits,drivers’actions,manners of collision and environmental conditions contributed to child injury *** child’s age was found to be inversely related to the risk of ***,among safety restraint types,rear-facing car seats and forward-facing car seats were found to reduce injury likelihoods in *** it comes to the drivers’characteristics,the probability of incurring injuries among the child population increased in the presence of young,unbuckled and impaired ***,improper driving actions,such as running off the road,raised the risk of incurring injuries to *** findings of this study may be beneficial to authorities regarding developing and implementing road safety programs aimed at ameliorating child injury concerns.

关键词： Child injury Bayesian inference Hierarchical logitmodel Intra-class correlations Unobserved heterogeneity effects

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Investigating the relationship between crash severity,traffic barrier type,and vehicle type in crashes involving traffic barrier

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2020年第1期7卷 125-136页

作者： Amirarsalan Mehrara Molan Mahdi Rezapour khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering California Polytechnic State UniversitySan Luis ObispoCA 93407USA Wyoming Technology Transfer Center Department of Civil and Architectural EngineeringUniversity of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA

Roadside safety is one of the important components of highway systems due to its considerable rate of high-severity *** barriers play a key role in reducing the crash severity and saving more lives on roadsides but choosing an inappropriate traffic barrier could decrease traffic barriers’*** paper investigated the variables affecting crash severity in different traffic barrier types(cable,guardrail,and rigid)and vehicle types(truck,and non-truck).For this purpose,an ordinal logistic regression approach was conducted on the crash data collected between 2007 and 2016 in *** to the results,different traffic barrier types show different relationships to crash severity based on posted speed limit at the *** guardrail segments,a high-severity crash is more likely when the posted speed limit is more than 55 mph;however,cable barrier crashes were less severe in high-speed limit(>55 mph)*** light vehicles were more vulnerable to crashes hitting rigid barriers,no significant difference was found between performances of cable and rigid barriers in terms of truck crash *** analytical models proposed in this study would make a clear view for designers and decision-makers in selecting the most appropriate traffic ***,the effective factors introduced in each model could be used to rank the risk posed by existing traffic barrier segments based on traffic barrier type,truck volume percentage,and other highway characteristics.

关键词： Traffic barrier Roadside safety Truck Crash severity Ordinal logistic regression Wyoming

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Predicting injury severity and crash frequency:Insights into the impacts of geometric variables on downgrade crashes in Wyoming

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2020年第3期7卷 375-383页

作者： Milhan Moomen Mahdi Rez apour Mustaffa NRaja khaled ksaibati Department of Civil&Architectural Engineering University of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA Wyoming Technology Transfer Center University of WyomingLaramieWY 82071USA

Road deaths,injuries and property damage places a huge burden on the economy of most *** has one of the highest truck-related fatality rates among the states in the *** high crash rates observed in the state is as a result of many factors mainly related to the challenging mountainous terrain in the state,which places extra burden on truck drivers in terms of requiring higher levels of alertness and driving *** difficult geometry of roads characteristic of mountainous terrain in terms of steep grade lengths adds extra risks of fatalities or injuries occurring as a result of a *** risks are more pronounced for truck-related crashes due to their weight and *** part of the measures to reduce the incidence of truck-related crashes on mountainous areas,the Wyoming Department of Transportation(WYDOT)initiated a study to investigate causes of truck crashes on downgrade areas of *** studies have investigated the contributory factors to severe injury crashes but the focus has mostly been on level *** study analyzed the contributory geometric factors of truck crashes on downgrades by estimating three crash prediction negative binomial *** models took into account the injury severity of the *** results indicate that downgrade length,shoulder width,horizontal curve length,number of lanes,number of access points and truck traffic on the highway all impact truck-related crashes and injury frequencies ondowngrades in *** results of this study will be helpful to future downgrade road design policy aimed at reducing downgrade truck related crashes.

关键词： Traffic safety Downgrade Crash frequency Truck safety Geometric factor

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Application of multinomial and ordinal logistic regressionto model injury severity of truck crashes, using violationand crash data

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Journal of Modern Transportation 2018年第4期26卷 268-277页

作者： Mahdi Rezapour khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of Wyoming Office: EN 3084 E University AveDept. 3295 Laramie WY 82071 USA Wyoming Technology Transfer Center 1000 E. UniversityAvenue Department 3295 Laramie WY 82071 USA

In 2016 alone, around 4000 people died in crashes involving trucks in the USA, with 21% of these fatalities involving only single-unit trucks. Much research has identified the underlying factors for truck ***, few studies detected the factors unique to single and multiple crashes, and none have examined these underlying factors to severe truck crashes in conjunction with violation data. The current research assessed all of these factors using two approaches to improve truck *** first approach used ordinal logistic regression to investigate the contributory factors that increased the odds of severe single-truck and multiple-vehicle crashes, with involvement of at least one truck. The literature has indicated that past violations can be used to predict future violations and crashes. Therefore, the second approach used risky violations, related to truck crashes, to identify the contributory factors to the risky violations and truck crashes. Driver actions of failure to keep proper lane following too close and driving too fast for conditions accounted for about 40% of all the truck crashes. Therefore, the same violations as the aforementioned driver actions were included in the analysis. Based on ordinal logistic regression, the analysis for the first approach indicated that being under non-normal conditions at the time of crash, driving on dry-road condition and having a distraction in the cabin are some of the factors that increase the odds of severe single-truck crashes. On the other hand,speed compliance, alcohol involvement, and posted speed limits are some of the variables that impacted the severity of multiple-vehicle, truck-involved crashes. With the second approach, the violations related to risky driver actions,which were underlying causes of severe truck crashes, were identified and analysis was run to identify the groups at increased risk of truck-involved crashes. The results of violations indicated that being nonresident, driving offpeak

关键词： Single-truck crash Multiple-truck crash Driving violation Traffic enforcement Logistic regression Injury truck crashes

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An optimization model for improving highway safety

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2016年第6期3卷 549-558页

作者： Promothes Saha khaled ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of Wyoming Wyoming Technology Transfer Center University of Wyoming

This paper developed a traffic safety management system （TSMS） for improving safety on county paved roads in Wyoming. TSMS is a strategic and systematic process to improve safety of roadway network. When funding is limited, it is important to identify the best combination of safety improvement projects to provide the most benefits to society in terms of crash reduction. The factors included in the proposed optimization model are annual safety budget, roadway inventory, roadway functional classification, historical crashes, safety improvement countermeasures, cost and crash reduction factors （CRFs） associated with safety improvement countermeasures, and average daily traffics （ADTs）. This paper demonstrated how the proposed model can identify the best combination of safety improvement projects to maximize the safety benefits in terms of reducing overall crash frequency. Although the proposed methodology was implemented on the county paved road network of Wyoming, it could be easily modified for potential implementation on the Wyoming state highway system. Other states can also benefit by implementing a similar program within their jurisdictions.

关键词： Traffic safety management system County roads Optimization model Crash reduction factor

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