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A Causality-guided Statistical Approach for Modeling Extreme Mei-yu Rainfall Based on Known Large-scale Modes——A Pilot Study

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1925-1940页

作者： Kelvin S.NG Gregor C.LECKEBUSCH kevin i.hodges School of Geography Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of BirminghamBirmingham B152TTUnited Kingdom Department of Meteorology and NCAS University of ReadingReading RG66BBUnited Kingdom

Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in *** significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate *** there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on *** statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate *** this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known *** relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the *** importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the *** results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are *** application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.

关键词： extreme rainfall Mei-yu front causality-guided approach large-scale climate modes

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Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 69-84页

作者： Julia CURiO Yongren CHEN Reinhard SCHiEMANN Andrew G. TURNER Kai Chi WONG kevin hodges Yueqing Li NCAS-Climate University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB UK Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB UK institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Chengdu 610072 China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072 China

Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the TP to the east. TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP （e.g., in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley）. identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent （400-800 kin） and the limited availability of soundings over the TP, which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs. in this study, （i） manual tracking （MT） results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with （ii） results obtained by an automated tracking （AT） algorithm applied to ERA-interim data. Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method （i） and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method （ii）. Conversely, ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs. in general, the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement, but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods, data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-interim data. Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking, including in an operational weather forecasting context.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Vortices Yearbook of TPVs TRACK mesoscale cyclones manual tracking automated tracking

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Track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth international Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(iWTC-10)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 64-80页

作者： Adam Conroy Helen Titley Rabi Rivett Xiangbo Feng John Methven kevin hodges Alan Brammer Andrew Burton Paromita Chakraborty Guomin Chen Levi Cowan Jason Dunion Abhijit Sarkar Bureau of Meteorology West PerthAustralia Met Office ExeterUK National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Cooperative institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NoidaIndia Shanghai Typhoon institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina Joint Typhoon Warning Center HonoluluUSA Cooperative institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies University of Miamiand Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological LaboratoryMiamiUSA

in this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth international Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(iWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and *** rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical *** agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP *** continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this *** in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus *** agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 *** trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in *** improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under *** many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is *** is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Tropical cyclones Track forecasting Ensembles Track uncertainty

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