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Response of Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios

Journal of Resources and Ecology 2020年第1期11卷 27-37页

作者： Eric Ariel L.SALAS Raul VALDEZ Stefan MICHEL kenneth g.boykin Agricultural Research and Development Program College of Science and EngineeringCentral State UniversityWilberforceOH 45384USA Department of Fish Wildlife and Conservation EcologyNew Mexico State UniversityLas CrucesNM 88003USA IUCN Species Survival Commission Caprinae Specialist GroupKannawurf D-06578Germany

We investigated the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica)in eastern *** existing climate change studies have been conducted on the habitat of a wild goat species in *** conducted ecological niche modelling to compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for *** to 2070,18%(2689 km^2)of the current suitable areas would be lost,mostly located in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the study ***,new suitable habitats could expand outside the current ibex range—about 30%(4595 km^2)expansion until *** found that the elevation,terrain roughness,seasonal temperature,and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors in the models and had strong correlations to ibex *** losses in the southeastern portion overlapped most of the current locations of ibex in that *** losses were observed in the much lower elevations of the study area(3500 m to 4000 m).When considering both loss and gain,the ibex could see a net expansion to new suitable *** 30%(1379 km^2)of the average habitat gains for the Asiatic ibex in 2070 showed a shift to northern lower temperature *** results are beneficial in planning for the potential effects on biodiversity conservation in the eastern mountain region of Tajikistan under climate change *** attention should be given to the ibex populations in the southeastern region,where habitats could become unsuitable for the species as a result of the climate-induced effects on the mountain ecosystem.

关键词： ensemble forecasting models global climate change species distribution modeling mountain ungulates

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