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The Causes of Hiking Ethiopian Consumer Prices

Macro Management & Public Policies 2023年第1期5卷 57-71页

作者： kedir bekeru genemo Economic Modeling and Statistical Analysis Directorate National Bank of Ethiopia and Part time Lecturer at Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa5550Ethiopia

A growing consumer price is creating instability in the macroeconomic environment and hinders the consumption level of especially the poor *** paper then explored the major causes of such increasing consumer prices using Ethiopian *** data from the National Bank of Ethiopia from 1982/1983 to 2019/2020,it condensed the information of monetary sector,external sector and fiscal sector variables to a small set to estimate the causes of Ethiopian consumer price hiking using the ARDL *** factors determining consumer price differ from food to *** most important factors determining food price are price expectation and fiscal *** the other hand,the main determinant of non-food consumer prices is the fiscal *** author also found evidence of fiscal factors and price expectation effects on general consumer ***,to contain the rise in consumer prices,it needs to exercise conservative fiscal stances,which require minimizing deficit financing,reducing the import tax rate and reducing domestic indirect tax rates such as excise tax and value added tax on basic consumer goods and ***,sound government policies are essential to address inflation anticipations(providing information for society about the future of inflation)to change public opinion.

关键词： Price inertia External factor Grain price Fertilizer price Principal component analysis

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Velocity of Money in Ethiopia

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Macro Management & Public Policies 2021年第3期3卷 35-41页

作者： kedir bekeru genemo Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis Directorate National Bank of EthiopiaAddis AbabaEthiopia

Velocity of money is an important instrument used to measure the monetary target and quality of monetary *** the trends in the money velocity,mainly in the short term,will have a paramount effect in determining the trends in real money *** study investigates the main causes of money velocity in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1974/75 to 2015/16.A regression with Bayesian estimation and nonparametric Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing(LOWESS)methods were used to analyze the *** such as credit,real interest rate,real exchange rate and real per capita income were included as potential determinants of money *** findings of using non-parametric LOWESS methods show an upward trends in the velocity of money since 2002 and downward trends before 2002,indicating the existence’s of prudent monetary policy in Ethiopia after *** result also shows a positive effect of real exchange rate and credit,whereas income per capita and real interest rates have a negative effect on velocity of money in ***,this paper recommends that,the policy to encourage sustainable economic growth and increase in interest rate would be beneficial to reduce velocity of money.

关键词： LOWESS Credible interval Prior Posterior

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