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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection dynamics in Ghana: Impact evaluation of integrated government and individual level interventions

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 381-397页

作者： Duah Dwomoh samuel Iddi Bright Adu Justice Moses Aheto Kojo Mensah Sedzro julius Fobil samuel Bosomprah Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana Department of Statistics University of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research Department of ImmunologyCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonGreater AccraGhana Department of Biological Environmental and Occupational HealthSchool of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesUniversity of GhanaLegonAccraGreater AccraGhana

The raging COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important threat to global health *** there is currently a vaccine,preventive measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infection but the efficacy of these interventions,and their likely impact on the number of COVID-19 infections is *** this study,we proposed the SEIQHRS model(susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-hospitalized-recovered-susceptible)model that predicts the trajectory of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy for COVID-19 in *** provided a short-term forecast of the early phase of the epidemic trajectory in Ghana using the generalized growth *** estimated the effective basic Reproductive number Re in real-time using three different estimation procedures and simulated worse case epidemic scenarios and the impact of integrated individual and government interventions on the epidemic in the long term using compartmental *** maximum likelihood estimates of Re and the corresponding 95%confidence interval was 2.04[95%CI:1.82e2.27;12th March-7th April 2020].The Re estimate using the exponential growth method was 2.11[95%CI:2.00e2.24]within the same *** Re estimate using time-dependent(TD)method showed a gradual decline of the Effective Reproductive Number since March 12,2020 when the first 2 index cases were recorded but the rate of transmission remains high(TD:Re=2.52;95%CI:[1.87e3.49]).The current estimate of Re based on the TD method is 1.74[95%CI:1.41 e2.10;(13th May 2020)]but with comprehensive integrated government and individual level interventions,the Re could reduce to 0.5 which is an indication of the epidemic dying out in the general *** results showed that enhanced government and individual-level interventions and the intensity of media coverage could have a substantial effect on suppressing transmission of new COVID-19 cases and reduced death rates in Ghana until such a time that a potent vaccine or drug is di

关键词： COVID-19 Mathematical modeling Intervention Effective reproductive number Infectious disease Differential equations

A cross-sectional analysis of the effectiveness of a nutritional support programme for people with tuberculosis in Southern Madagascar using secondary data from a non-governmental organisation

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 101-102页

作者： Mara Anna Franke julius Valentin Emmrich Fierenantsoa Ranjaharinony Onja GbrilleRavololohanitra Harizaka Emmanuel Andriamasy samuel Knauss Nadine Muller Global Digital Health Lab at Charité Center for Global Health Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK Ärzte Für Madagaskar E.V. Leipzig Germany Heidelberg Institute of Global Health Heidelberg University Heidelberg Germany Berlin Institute of Health at Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany Doctors for Madagascar Antananarivo Madagascar Speciality Network: Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany

Background There is a strong,bi-directional link between tuberculosis(TB)and undernutrition:TB often causes undernutrition,and undernourished people are more likely to contract TB and experience worse ***,several TB nutritional support programmes exist;however,evidence on their effectiveness is limited and *** study evaluates the effect of a nutritional support programme implemented for people with TB in the Atsimo-Andrefana region,Madagascar in *** this programme,undernourished people with TB[with a body mass index(BMI)of<18.5 kg/m]receive 0.6 L of vegetable oil and 6.0 kg of a soy-wheat blend per month throughout their TB *** We analysed secondary non-governmental organisation data collected between January and Novem-ber 2022 in the Atsimo-Andrefana region,Southern Madagascar,including information on an individual's medical conditions(e.g.,type of TB,treatment outcomes)and nutritional status measured prior to,during,and after comple-tion of treatment(e.g.,height,weight,mid-upper arm circumference).We conducted descriptive analyses of patient baseline characteristics and outcomes to assess the impact of the provided nutritional support on the BMI of people With *** A total of 1310 people with TB were included in the study[9.9%(130)children under the age of 5,32.1%(420)children between 5 and 18 years,58.0%(760)adults].55.4% of children under 5,28.1% of children between ages 5 and 18,and 81.3%of adults were undernourished at treatment initiation.42.3%(55/130)of children under 5 experi-enced severe acute malnutrition at treatment *** the average BMl of adults with TB receiving food support increased over time,from 17.1 kg/m^(2)(interquartile range:15.8-18.3,range:10.3-22.5)to 17.9 kg/m^(2)(interquartile range:16.6-19.1,range:11.9-24.1),most adults remained undernourished even after completing TB *** The current TB nutritional support programme falls short of sufficiently increasing the BM

关键词： Tuberculosis Sub-Saharan Africa Undernutrition Nutritional support

Stochastic Modelling of Great Letaba River Flow Process

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2019年第6期7卷 42-54页

作者： Gislar E. Kifanyi julius M. Ndambuki samuel N. Odai Charles Gyamfi Department of Civil Engineering Tshwane University of Technology Pretoria South Africa Department of Civil Engineering Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania Department of Civil Engineering Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Kumasi Ghana Regional Water and Environmental Sanitation Center Kumasi Ghana

A stochastic approach is presented in view that a time series modelling is achieved through an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The applicability of the ARMA model is then further presented using the Great Letaba River as a case study. River flow discharge for 25 years (1989-2014) for the Great Letaba River was obtained from the Department of Water and Sanitation, South Africa and analysed by Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Monte Carlo simulation approach was used to generate forecasts of the ARIMA error model for the next 25 years. Initial model identification was done using the Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation function (PACF). The model analysis and evaluations provided proper predictions of the river system. The models revealed some degree of correlation and seasonality behaviour with decreasing river flow. Hence, in conclusion, the Great Letaba River flow has shown a decreasing trend and therefore, should be effectively used for sustainable future development.

关键词： Modelling Great Letaba River South Africa Stochastic Flow Process

Nutraceutical with Anti-Inflammatory Activity for the Management of Airway Remodeling in Bronchial Asthma: Kalanchoe integraVar. Crenata (Andr.) Cuf Leaf Extract

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Pharmacology & Pharmacy 2014年第3期5卷 250-261页

作者： Asiedu-Gyekye Isaac julius Awortwe Charles Nyamekye Effah samuel Antwi Daniel Ansong Seidu Mahmood Adjei samuel Banga N’guessan Benoit Kwame Amoateng Patrick Nkansah Edwin Department of Animal Experimentation Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research College of Health Sciences Legon Ghana Department of Chemical Pathology School of Allied Health Sciences College of Health Sciences Korle-Bu Ghana Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology University of Ghana School of Pharmacy College of Health Sciences Legon Ghana Department of Physiology University of Ghana Medical School Col-lege of Health Sciences Korle-Bu Ghana Division of Pharmacology Faculty of Health Sciences University of Stellenbosch Cape Town South Africa

Background: Kalanchoe integra is widely used in folklore medicine as an antiasthmatic agent. Previous studies have shown the ameliorating effect of Kalanchoe integra leaf extract [KILE] on bronchial hyperesponsiveness and inflammation. Further, the stabilizing effect of Kalanchoe sp on mast cell degranulation, suggests that Kalanchoe species are suitable candidates for allergic asthma therapy. This study is designed to investigate the anti-asthmatic potential of KILE and monitor the accompanying histopathological and immunobiochemical changes that occur in an animal model of bronchial asthma using ovalbumin sensitized guinea pigs. Method: Thirty male guinea pigs were divided into five groups of six animals each. Bronchial asthma was simulated in guinea pigs using ovalbumin. Both low dose (300 mg/kg) and high dose extract (900 mg/kg) were administered daily for 42 days. Prednisolone (2.5 mg/kg) was the standard drug used. Results: Guinea pigs in all KILE treated groups maintained the integrity of their airway structures: bronchial folds and walls, alveoli, alveolar ducts and sacs. KILE and prednisolone caused a reduction in immune parameters (p 0.001), extent of bronchoconstriction, bronchial wall thickness and goblet cell accumulation in the sensitized guinea pigs. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the anti-asthmatic potential of KILE during prolonged administration by the oral route.

关键词： Kalanchoe Integra Asthma Bronchoconstriction Goblet Cells Perivascular Oedema

Rooting Response of Air-Layered Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa) Trees to Media and Hormonal Application under Two Different Climatic Conditions

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American Journal of Plant Sciences 2014年第9期5卷 1212-1219页

作者： julius Yeboah Ben Kwaku Branoh Banful Peter Yaw Boateng Frank Manu Amoah Bonaventure Kissinger Maalekuu samuel Tetteh Lowor Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana Tafo-Akim Ghana Department of Horticulture Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Kumasi Ghana

Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa Gaertn. Family;Sapotaceae) indigenous to the Sudano-sahelian zone of Africa has great economic and ecological potential and attributes. Commercial cultivation of the tree is however, hampered by the poor rooting success of its planting material with adverse consequences on field establishment and total fruit yield. A 3 × 2 factorial experiment arranged in a randomized complete block design was carried out in 2012 at Bole in the Interior Savanna agro-ecological zone. The objective was to assess the rooting success of Shea shoots by the air-layering technique using two media types (palm fibre and Sphagnum moss) and three IBA hormone concentrations (0, 5000 and 10,000 ppm) under contrasting climatic (wet and dry) conditions. Layered shoots which were sprayed with 10,000 ppm IBA and wrapped with Sphagnum moss gave significantly (P < 0.05) higher rooting success in terms of more roots per cutting (73.3%) and longer roots per cutting (9.0 cm) than palm fibre at both 5000 ppm (30.0%;3.7 cm) and 10,000 ppm (46.7%;7.9 cm) concentrations. Higher rooting success was significantly achieved in the wet season than in the dry season. Sphagnum moss treated with 10,000 ppm IBA facilitated the translocation of higher levels of sugar and total free phenol (TFP) to the base of the layered shoots which resulted in significantly (P < 0.05) higher number of roots and better roots protection from fungal infection than the other treatments. Rooting of layered shoots was affected to a greater extent by low temperatures (Rooting = 836 – 34.2 Temp (low);R2 = 82%, p < 0.001) than by high temperatures (Rooting = 5250 – 175.0 Temp (high);R2 = 64.5%, p < 0.009). Rooting of layered shoots was also significantly and negatively affected by the spread of the canopy of the selected tree such that closed canopy trees resulted in higher and better rooting that open canopy trees (Rooting = 113.87-23.697(Canopy spread);R2 = 89%, p = 0.002;n = 9). Furthermore, significant and

关键词： Vitellaria paradoxa Rooting IBA Auxin Palm Fibre Sphagnum Peat Moss Air-Layering

Evaluation of Major Chemical Components in Beans of Some Selected International Cocoa Clones in Ghana

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(B) 2014年第3期4卷 200-208页

作者： Abu Mustapha Dadzie Stephen Yaw Opoku Atta Ofori samuel Lowor Jemmy Felix Takrama Francis Kwame Padi julius Yeboah Department of Plant Breeding Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) Tafo-Akim Ghana

Cocoa bean is an important raw material for the chocolate, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. The butter content and other chemical components such as polyphenols play essential role in the health benefits of consumers as well as flavor of chocolates produced. In this study cocoa beans from 15 international clones （genotypes） were fermented and dried for six and 14 days, respectively. Genotypic effect on the major chemical components of the beans that affect chocolate flavour and taste were assessed using various protocols in the laboratory. Concentrations and relationship existing among the chemical components tested during three- and two-year periods were determined. Genotypic differences were found to account for variation in the concentration of various components tested. Among the genotypes used Man 15-2 seems to be high in fat content whilst IMC 47 was low. In terms of O-dihydric phenol content ICS 1 recorded the highest whilst MO 20 recorded the least. A further test on polyphenols content showed high levels for Gu 255 whilst T 79/501 recorded the least. Significant positive correlation was also observed among the various chemical components tested. The findings of this work clearly confirmed the existence of significant correlations among the major chemical components in cocoa beans and the influence of genotype on the chemical component concentration. This information could be very useful in breeding and selection for a particular component since genotype plays a major role.

关键词： Cocoa clones polyphenols O-dihydrics.

Studies on Cardiac Cytoarchitectonic and Biochemical Indices in Pregnant Streptozotocin-lnduced Diabetic Rats Treated with Gliclazide and Insulin

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Journal of Pharmacy and Pharmacology 2018年第1期6卷 38-51页

作者： Olojede samuel Oluwaseun Lawal Sodiq Kolawole Medubi Leke Jacob Adekoya Abimbola julius Esubi Juan Uche Dauda Feyikemi Funmilayo Buhari Muhammed Olanrewaju Osinubi Abraham Adewale Department of Anatomy College of Medicine of the University of Lagos Lagos100254 Nigeria Department of Anatomy St. Francis University College of Health and Allied Sciences Ifakara-Morogoro 67501 Tanzania Department of Human Anatomy Western Campus Kampala International University Ishaka-Bushenyi 25647 Uganda

Introduction： GDM （gestational diabetes mellitus） is a common complication of pregnancy, and prevalence has become alarming. Insulin remains the cornerstone in management of diabetes mellitus but oral agents have been increasingly viewed as potential alternatives to insulin because it＇s economically low in cost, easier to administer and affordable to monitor compare to insulin. Aim： This study aimed to determine the effects of Gliclazide on the heart cytoarchitectonic and some biochemical indices of pregnant STZ （streptozotocin）-induced diabetic rats compare with insulin. Methods： Twenty （20） pregnant Sprague Dawley rats weighing between 130 g and 150 g were used for the experiments. The rats were divided into four （4） groups： Group 1 （Non-diabetic）, Group 2 （Diabetic）, Group 3 （Diabetic ＋ Gliclazide） and Group 4 （Diabetic ＋ Insulin）. The glucose levels and body weights were monitoring daily. The experimental rats were sacrificed on the 19th on gestational period, blood samples and organs were collected for biochemical and histo-morphological examinations. Results： Gliclazide group rats showed significant increase in body weight compared with diabetic group Q9 〈 0.05）. The blood glucose level of rats in gliclazide group was significantly reduced compared with other groups. There was significant increase in reduced GSH （glutathione） of gliclazide and insulin groups compared with diabetic group. MDA （malondialdehyde） and CAT （catalase） levels activities were significantly increase in diabetic group compared with other groups. Hormonal profiles and hematological parameters are significantly increased in gliclazide, and insulin group compared with diabetic group. There were distortions in the structural organization of heart of diabetic group while gliclazide and insulin groups showed remarkable improvements of the degenerative changes of the myocardium. Conclusions： Gliclazide glycemic control has shown beneficial effects on the cardiomyocytes damage in STZ-induced dia

关键词： Gliclazide Gestational diabetes mellitus insulin cardiomyocytes oxidative stress.

Genotypic Effect of Rootstock and Scion on Grafting Success and Growth of Kola (Cola nitida) Seedlings

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American Journal of Plant Sciences 2014年第26期5卷 3873-3879页

作者： Abu Mustapha Dadzie Abraham Akpertey julius Yeboah Stephen Yaw Opoku Atta Ofori samuel Lowor Richard Ackyeampong Patricia Adu- Yeboah Mercy Asamoah Frank Manu Amoah Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) Tafo-Akim Ghana

Kola (Cola nitida) is an important economic cash crop for many West and Central African countries. It has several medicinal uses in the pharmaceutical industries and also plays a major role in traditional marriages among Islamic communities across West and Central Africa. The crop is extensively cultivated in Nigeria and Ghana. However, it exhibit signs of total and partial sterility as well as self incompatibility when propagated from seeds in most cases. Therefore, grafting is seen as a method of choice in addressing the problem stated above. Though grafting accounts for some degree of success, there is the need to assess genotypic and physiological factors that account for high or low grafting success. Genetic and physiological factors (such as rootstock age) affecting grafting success and growth in kola (C. nitida) were investigated in two separate experiments. In experiment I720 kola seedlings were raised from unselected kola nuts and sown at two monthly intervals. Four groups of seedlings (180/group) i.e. 6, 8, 10 and 12 months old were thus produced. Three different scions (A1, A12 and JB1) measuring (5-10 cm) were grafted onto the four age groups of rootstocks, namely, 6, 8, 10 and 12 months. Experiment II consisted of 540 seedlings raised from three main crosses (JX1/9 × JX1/11 * B1/142 × B1/151, JX1/9 × JX1/11 * B2/177 × B2/156 and JX1/9 × JX1/11 * GX1/46 × GX1/53). Grafting was done after six months using the same set of scions as described in experiment I. Experimental design used was 3 × 4 and 3 × 3 factorial designs in completely randomised design with three replicates for experiment I and II respectively. The fixed effects were the different genotype and age of rootstock at grafting whilst the response variable was the percentage of successful grafting two months as well as growth at six monthly intervals. Results from the study showed that grafting onto 6 months old stocks gave the highest percentage success and growth of grafts followed by 8, 10 and

关键词： Kola Rootstock Scion Genotype

Phytochemical Screening, Toxicity, Analgesic and Anti-Pyretic Studies of Aqueous Leaf Extract of Plectranthus barbatus[Andrews. Engl.] in Rats

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Pharmacology & Pharmacy 2019年第4期10卷 205-221页

作者： Joseph O. C. Ezeonwumelu Gloria N. Kawooya Aiyabalu G. Okoruwa samuel Sunday Dare Jennifer C. Ebosie Ambrose A. Akunne julius Kihdze Tanayen Bede E. Udechukwu Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Biopharmacy School of Pharmacy Kampala International University Western Campus Ishaka Bushenyi Uganda Kampala International University Complementary and Alternative Medicine Research (KIUCAMRES) Group Western Campus Ishaka Bushenyi Uganda Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Biopharmacy School of Pharmacy Kilimanjaro International University Dar es salaam Tanzania Department of Anatomy Faculty of Biomedical Sciences Kampala International University Western Campus Ishaka Bushenyi Uganda School of Health and Medical Sciences Catholic University in Cameroon Bamenda Cameroon Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology Kampala International University Western Campus Ishaka Bushenyi Uganda

Plectranthus barbatus is a popular tropical perennial plant with a wide variety of traditional medicinal uses in tropical Africa, Hindu, Ayurvedic and traditional medicines of Brazil and China. The whole plant and the leaves have many folkloric uses for diverse ailments including pain, heart disease, convulsions, coughs and colds, asthma, bronchitis and tonsillitis among others. This study investigated the phytochemical components, acute toxicity, analgesic and anti-pyretic activities of the aqueous leaf extract of Plectranthus barbatus locally known as Ekizeera in Uganda. The plant leaves were authenticated, collected and decoction was done according to local method. Phytochemical screening was conducted using methods outlined by Trease and Evans and Harborne to determine the components of the extract. Acute toxicity tests were conducted in rats using modified Lorke’s method to determine the safety of the plant material. Analgesic studies were carried out using both a mechanical method (thermally induced pain by tail-flick) and a chemical method (formalin induced pain) in rats by administering extracts orally at 100, 200 and 400 mg/kg of body weight. The method of Al-Ghamdi, modified for local laboratory setting by Adzu was adopted and used for anti-pyretic test. Decoction yielded 9.9% extract. Phytochemical screening confirmed presence of saponins, tannins, alkaloids, terpenoids and essential oils. Acute toxicity tests revealed no deaths in rats after oral treatment with up to 10,000 mg/kg of extract. Tail-flick test was non-significant (p > 0.05) while formalin-induced pain test demonstrated significant activity (p -tests. Anti-pyretic activity was non-significant (p > 0.05) with student t-test. These results suggest that the aqueous leaf extract of Plectranthus barbatus contains specific phytochemicals, has a potent dose dependent analgesic activity, no anti-pyretic activity and can be regarded as a safe medicinal plant to use traditionally, which might further

关键词： Acute Toxicity Analgesic Anti-Pyretic Plectranthus barbatus Phytochemicals Rats