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Unusual tracks:Statistical,controlling factors and model prediction

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 309-322页

作者： Ying Li julian heming Ryan D.Torn Shaojun Lai Yinglong Xu Xiaomeng Chen State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina UK Met Office ExeterUK State University of New York New YorkUSA Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather FuzhouChina Fujian Observatory of Pingtan Marine Meteorology PingtanChina Chinese Meteorological Center BeijingChina Fujian Provincial Meteorological Service Center FuzhouChina

The progress of research and forecast techniques for tropical cyclone(TC)unusual tracks(UTs)in recent years is reviewed.A major research focus has been understanding which processes contribute to the evolution of the TC and steering flow over time,especially the reasons for the sharp changes in TC motion over a short period of *** TCs are located in the vicinity of monsoon gyres,TC track forecast become more difficult to forecast due to the complex interaction between the TCs and the ***,the convection and latent heat can also feed back into the synoptic-scale features and in turn modify the steering *** this report,two cases with UTs are examined,along with an assessment of numerical model *** in numerical modelling and in particular the development of ensemble forecasting systems have proved beneficial in the prediction of such *** are still great challenges in operational track forecasts and warnings,such as the initial TC track forecast,which is based on a poor pre-genesis analysis,TC track forecasts during interaction between two or more TCs and track predictions after ***,artificial intelligence(AI)methods such as machine learning or deep learning have been widely applied in the field of TC *** TC track forecasting,a more effective method of center location is obtained by combining data from various sources and fully exploring the potential of AI,which provides more possibilities for improving TC prediction.

关键词： Unusual TC tracks Track controlling factors Track predictions Track forecast errors

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下投式探空资料对数值预报初始场影响的个例分析

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气象与环境学报 2006年第2期22卷 34-37页

作者：曲晓波 julian heming 中国辽宁省气象台沈阳110016 英国气象局

通过对2000年8月加勒比海地区飓风Debby活动期间,连续2个时次中使用下投式探空资料同化分析后,利用英国气象局全球数值预报系统的数值预报分析场和背景场的对比分析,阐明了由于下投式探空资料的引入,较好地描述了实际大气的情况,为数值... 详细信息

通过对2000年8月加勒比海地区飓风Debby活动期间,连续2个时次中使用下投式探空资料同化分析后,利用英国气象局全球数值预报系统的数值预报分析场和背景场的对比分析,阐明了由于下投式探空资料的引入,较好地描述了实际大气的情况,为数值预报提供了较为接近实际的初始场,从而提高了数值预报的精度。其中以湿度场和风场的贡献为最大。

关键词：下投式探空资料初始场影响个例分析

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Remote sensing and analysis of tropical cyclones:Current and emerging satellite sensors

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 267-293页

作者： Lucrezia Ricciardulli Brian Howell Christopher R.Jackson Jeff Hawkins Joe Courtney Ad Stoffelen Sebastian Langlade Chris Fogarty Alexis Mouche William Blackwell Thomas Meissner julian heming Brett Candy Tony McNally Masahiro Kazumori Chinmay Khadke Maria Ana Glaiza Escullar Remote Sensing Systems Santa RosaCAUSA Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl HarborHawaiiUSA Global Ocean Associates(supporting NOAA/NESDIS STAR) AlexandriaVAUSA University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite StudiesMadisonWIUSA Bureau of Meteorology PerthAustralia Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(KNMI) De BiltNetherlands Tropical Cyclone/Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Meteo FranceReunionFrance Canadian Hurricane Center(CHC) DartmouthNova ScotiaCanada University Brest CNRSIRDIfremerLaboratoire d’Oceanographie Physique et Spatiale(LOPS)IUEMBrestFrance MIT Lincoln Laboratory LexingtonMAUSA Met Office ExeterUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUK Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department(IMD) New DelhiIndia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration(PAGASA)Diliman Quezon CityPhilippines

This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones(TC)fine structure,wind field,and temporal *** article is based on a World Meteorological Organization(WMO)report prepared for the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC),held in Bali in December 2022,and its objective is to present updates in TC research and operation every four *** we focus on updates regarding the most recent space-based TC observations,and we cover new methodologies and techniques using polar orbiting sensors,such as C-band synthetic aperture radars(SARs),L-band and combined C/X-band radiometers,scatterometers,and microwave imagers/*** additionally address progress made with the new generation of geostationary and small satellites,and discuss future sensors planned to be launched in the next *** then briefly describe some examples on how the newest sensors are used in operations and data assimilation for TC forecasting and research,and conclude the article with a discussion on the remaining challenges of TC space-based observations and possible ways to address them in the near future.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Surface wind Satellite sensors Operations

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 50-63页

作者： Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang John P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan Levi Cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma John A.Knaff John Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle julian heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma Charles Sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Indian Meteorological Department India NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK China Meteorological Administration China Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,*** I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast *** part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational *** is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in *** particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before *** models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are *** needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Forecast error Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 30-49页

作者： Zhan Zhang Weiguo Wang James D.Doyle Jonathan Moskaitis William A.Komaromi julian heming Linus Magnusson John P.Cangialosi Levi Cowan Michael Brennan Suhong Ma Ananda Kumar Das Hosomi Takuya Peter Clegg Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff John Kaplan Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Ikegami Masaaki Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA SAIC@NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK ECMWF ReadingUK NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA China Meteorological Administration China Indian Meteorological Department India Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Bureau of Meteorology Australia Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,*** accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by *** rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three *** review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast *** companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational *** dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity ***,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed *** performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation *** challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.

关键词： Dynamical models Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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REVIEW OF RECENT PROGRESS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING AND EXPRESSION OF UNCERTAINTIES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 181-218页

作者： julian T.heming Fernando Prates Morris A.Bender Rebecca Bowyer John Cangialosi Phillippe Caroff Thomas Coleman James D.Doyle Anumeha Dube Ghislain Faure Jim Fraser Brian C.Howell Yohko Igarashi Ron McTaggart-Cowan M.Mohapatra Jonathan R.Moskaitis Jim Murtha Rabi Rivett M.Sharma Chris J.Short Amit A.Singh Vijay Tallapragada Helen A.Titley Yi Xiao 不详

The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under the Tropical Cyclone Track *** forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC) track has seen significant improvements in recent decades both by numerical weather prediction models and by regional warning centres who issue forecasts having made use of these models and other forecasting techniques. heming and Goerss(2010) gave an overview of forecasting techniques and models available for TC forecasting, including evidence of the improvement in performance over the years. However, the models and techniques used for TC forecasting have continued to develop in the last decade. This presentation gives an updated overview of many of the numerical weather prediction models and other techniques used for TC track prediction. It includes recent performance statistics both by the models and the regional warning centres.

关键词： Tropical Cyclone World Meteorological Organization Workshop Numerical Models Track Forecasting

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