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To supervise or to self‑supervise:a machine learning based comparison on credit supervision

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Financial Innovation 2021年第1期7卷 562-582页

作者： joséAmérico pereira Antunes Central Bank of Brazil Av Presidente Vargas730Rio de Janeiro 20231‑044Brazil

This study investigates the need for credit supervision as conducted by on-site banking *** builds on a real bank on-site credit examination to compare the performance of a hypothetical self-supervision approach,in which banks themselves assess their loan portfolios without external intervention,with the on-site banking supervision approach of the Central Bank of *** experiment develops two machine learning classification models:the first model is based on good and bad ratings informed by banks,and the second model is based on past on-site credit portfolio examinations conducted by banking *** findings show that the overall performance of the on-site supervision approach is consistently higher than the performance of the self-supervision approach,justifying the need for on-site credit portfolio examination as conducted by the Central Bank.

关键词： Bank supervision Machine learning Loan loss provisions On-site credit supervision

Microphysical and Dynamical Climatology of Precipitating Systems Inferred by Weather Radar Polarimetric Measurements in Brazil

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Open Journal of Modern Hydrology 2022年第2期12卷 74-93页

作者： Augusto josé pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Departamento de Ciê ncias Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ci&#234 ncias Atmosféricas Universidade de Sã o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo Brazil

This work presents the climatology of the microphysics and the dynamics of weather systems in two coastal areas of São Paulo and the Espírito States at high spatial-temporal resolution as measured by two dual Doppler weather radars during the summer and early fall of 2015. Averages and respective standard deviations of polarimetric variables, namely, reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity (ZDR), differential phase (ϕDP), specific differential phase (KDP), copolar correlation coefficient (ρoHV), radial velocity (Vr), and the spectral width (W) were obtained within a 240-km range on plan position indicator (PPI), constant altitude plan position indicator (CAPPI) and vertical cross-sections to analyze overall horizontal and vertical precipitation microphysics and mesoscale circulation of prevailing weather systems, and their peculiarities over coastal and oceanic, and urban and rural areas. Overall, raindrops tend to be larger over the Metropolitan area of São Paulo from the surface to up to 6 km altitude indicating more vigorous updrafts caused by the heat island effect and the local sea breeze. The vertical microphysical structure is remarkably distinct over the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) where thunderstorms can reach 20-km altitude in summertime under sea breeze and heat island effects. On the other hand, there is a dominancy of smaller drop sizes though larger ones observed close to the surface by the coast of Espírito Santo and at the land-ocean interface influenced by the local low-level jet and oceanic-type CCN. Convective cells tend to be smaller associated with Easterlies and more organized with Westerlies. The results indicate distinct features on hydrometeor types and circulation characteristics under these different surface and boundary-layer conditions in close agreement with previous results in the literature.

关键词： Dual Doppler Weather RADAR Microphysics Climatology Atlantic Ocean

Convective Rainfall in Lake Victoria Watershed and Adjacent Equatorial Africa

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 373-397页

作者： Felipe Vemado Augusto josé pereira Filho Departmento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de S&#227 o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo Brazil

An integrated satellite precipitation estimation dataset, namely, the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), was used to analyze precipitation regimes across Equatorial Africa between 3°S - 1°N and 24°E - 42°E from 2000 to 2014. This region includes the Rift Valley, part of the Congo Forest, and the Lake Victoria (LV) basin, the second largest lake in the area of the world. Hovmöller diagrams were obtained for all organized convective systems to estimate their spans, duration, and phase speeds. The analysi

关键词： Lake Victory Precipitation Deep Convection Diurnal Cycle CMORPH

Ocean Forcing on Titicaca Lake Water Volume

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Open Journal of Modern Hydrology 2022年第1期12卷 1-10页

作者： Eleazar Chuchón Ângulo Augusto josé pereira Filho Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosférica Universidade de S&#227 o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo Brasil

The time series of water level of Titicaca Lake (TL) was compared to the time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes between 1914 and 2014 and 1969 and 2014, monthly and daily, respectively. Results indicate TL water level decreased (increased) during positive (negative) PDO phases. ENSO positive (negative) phase results were similar. Positive (negative) PDO and ENSO phases yielded negative (positive) precipitation anomalies and concomitant decrease (increase) of TL water level. These long-term relationships among TL water levels and both oceanic indexes can be useful and prognostic.

关键词： PDO ENSO Titicaca Lake

Looking at the Statistical Texture Approach Applied to Weather Radar Rainfall Fields

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Journal of Geographic Information System 2022年第1期14卷 29-39页

作者： Evaldo Araújo de Oliveira Augusto josé pereira Filho Department of Physics Federal University of Sao Paulo Diadema Brazil Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil

Texture analysis methods have been used in a variety of applications, for instance in remote sensing. Though widely used in electrical engineering, its application in atmospheric sciences is still limited. This paper reviews some concepts of digital texture and statistical texture approach, applying them to a set of specific maps to analyze the correlation between texture measurements used in most papers. It is also proposed an improvement of the method by setting free a distance parameter and the use of a new texture measurement based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Eight statistical measurements were used: mean, contrast, standard deviation, cluster shade, cluster prominence, angular second moment, local homogeneity and Shannon entropy. The above statistical measurements were applied to simple maps and a set of rainfall fields measured with weather radar. The results indicate some high correlations, e.g. between the mean and the contrast or between the angular second moment, local homogeneity and the Shannon entropy, besides the potentiality of the method to discriminate maps.

关键词： Image Classification Density Weather Maps Statistical Texture Approach

TOPMODEL Hydrometeorological Modeling with Rain Gauge Data Integrated by High-Resolution Satellite Estimates. A Case Study in MuriaéRiver Basin, Brazil

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 486-507页

作者： Marcos Figueiredo Salviano Augusto josé pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Geological Survey of Brazil S&#227 o Paulo Brazil Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de S&#227 o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo Brazil

This study consists of hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river watershed with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and available stream gauge and rain measurements between 2009 and 2013 for two subbasins, namely Carangola and Patrocínio do Muriaé. The simulations were carried out with the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) precipitation estimates and rain gauge measurements integrated into CM- ORPH by the Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme (SOAS). TOPMODEL calibration was performed with the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The best overall results were obtained with CMORPH (NSE ~ 0.6) for both subbasins. The simulations with SOAS resulted in an NSE ~ 0.2. However, in an analysis of days with high- level stages, SOAS simulations resulted in a better hit rate (23%) compared to CMORPH (10%). CMORPH simulations underestimated the flows at the flood periods, which indicates the importance to use multi-sensor precipitation data. The results with TOPMODEL allow an estimate of future discharges, which allows for better planning of a flood warning system and discharge measurement schedule.

关键词： Hydrologic Model CMORPH Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme (SOAS) TOPMODEL Muriaé River

“Acute postoperative open abdominal wall”: Nosological concept and treatment implications

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2013年第12期5卷 314-320页

作者： Manuel López-Cano josé A pereira Manuel Armengol-Carrasco Abdominal Wall Surgery Unit Department of General Surgery Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebrón Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Department of General and Digestive Surgery Parc de Salut Mar Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Department of Health and Experimental Sciences Universitat Pompeu Fabra

The so-called 'burst abdomen' has been described for many years and is a well-known clinical condition, whereas the concept of the 'open abdomen' is relatively new. In clinical practice, both nosological entities are characterized by a complex spectrum of symptoms apparently disconnected, which in many cases poses a great challenge for surgical repair. In order to assess the management of these disorders in a more comprehensive and integral fashion, the concept of 'acute postoperative open abdominal wall'(acute POAW) is presented, which in turn can be divided into 'intentional' or planned acute POAW and 'unintentional' or unplanned POAW. The understanding of the acute POAW as a single clinical process not only allows a better optimization of the ther-apeutic approach in the surgical repair of abdominal wallrelated disorders, but also the stratification and collection of data in different patient subsets, favoring a better knowledge of the wide spectrum of conditions involved in the surgical reconstruction of the abdominal wall.

关键词： Burst abdomen Open abdomen Evisceration Abdominal wall Mesh Negative pressure wound therapy Incisional hernia Enteroatmospheric fistula

On Thunderstorm Microphysics under Urban Heat Island, Sea Breeze, and Cold Front Effects in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 614-643页

作者： Isidro Metódio Tuleni Johanes Ihadua Augusto josé pereira Filho Universidade de Sã o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo-Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Rua do Mat&#227 o 1226 S&#227 o Paulo Brazil

This work discusses issues related to the impact of urbanization on the microphysical processes of precipitating systems associated with synoptic, mesoscale, and local scale systems. Among the issues addressed is the impact of urban heat island (UHI) in São Paulo city center and urban densification (UD) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) on the microphysical, dynamic, and thermodynamic properties and distribution of precipitation and heavier rainfall from sea-breeze (SB) e cold-front (CF) combined during their space-time evolutions. For this purpose, it used four components: classification of hydrometeors with fuzzy logic, calculation of the raindrop diameters, an estimate of liquid water mass and ice mass from polarimetric-variables measured with dual-pola- rization X-band meteorolog

关键词： Weather Radar Fuzzy Logic Sea Breeze Urban Densification Hail Asymmetric Thunderstorm Configuration

Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall

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Open Journal of Epidemiology 2016年第1期6卷 50-79页

作者： Hugo Abi Karam Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva Augusto josé pereira Filho josé Luis Flores Rojas Instituto de Geociências IGEO-CCMN-UFRJ Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brasil Departmento de Estatística CCET-UFRN Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Natal Brasil Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas IAG-USP Universidade de Sao Paulo SP Brasil

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

关键词： Modelling Dengue Epidemics Environmental Enthalpy Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics