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Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 136-150页

作者： Carl J.Schreck III Frederic Vitart Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp James Darlow Russell Elsberry jon gottschalck Paul Gregory Kurt Hansen Justyn Jackson Matthew A.Janiga Philip J.Klotzbach Chia-Ying Lee Lindsey Long Masuo Nakano Kazuto Takemura Yuhei Takaya Michael J.Ventrice Zhuo Wang Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies North Carolina State UniversityUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityUSA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Naval Postgraduate School USA Climate Prediction Center NOAAUSA hNational Research CouncilUSA U.S.Air Force USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Colorado State University USA ERT Inc.USA Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Japan Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan DRW Holdings USA University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign USA

This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientiﬁc community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Paciﬁc by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been *** has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal *** addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of *** of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its *** skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive veriﬁcation studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Paciﬁc.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Subseasonal Forecasts Hurricanes MJO

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