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The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services——Examples in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 893-903页

作者： Chris D.HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Tyrone DUNBAR Philip E.BETT joanne camp Timothy D.MITCHELL Edward POPE Met Office Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Beijing Climate Center/National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

关键词： climate services prototypes user engagement

维普期刊数据库

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nicola MARTIN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Gill M.MARTIN Nicola GOLDING joanne camp Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HEWITT Leon HERMANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU Min LIU Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)

维普期刊数据库

Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 136-150页

作者： Carl J.Schreck III Frederic Vitart Suzana J.Camargo joanne camp James Darlow Russell Elsberry Jon Gottschalck Paul Gregory Kurt Hansen Justyn Jackson Matthew A.Janiga Philip J.Klotzbach Chia-Ying Lee Lindsey Long Masuo Nakano Kazuto Takemura Yuhei Takaya Michael J.Ventrice Zhuo Wang Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies North Carolina State UniversityUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityUSA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Naval Postgraduate School USA Climate Prediction Center NOAAUSA hNational Research CouncilUSA U.S.Air Force USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Colorado State University USA ERT Inc.USA Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Japan Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan DRW Holdings USA University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign USA

This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientiﬁc community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Paciﬁc by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been *** has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal *** addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of *** of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its *** skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive veriﬁcation studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Paciﬁc.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Subseasonal Forecasts Hurricanes MJO

SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 134-149页

作者： Philip Klotzbach Eric Blake joanne camp Louis-Philippe Caron Johnny C.L.Chan Nam-Young Kang Yuri Kuleshov Sai-Ming Lee Hiroyuki Murakami Mark Saunders Yuhei Takaya Frederic Vitart Ruifen Zhan Colorado State University Fort CollinsUSA NOAA/National Hurricane Center MiamiUSA Met Office ExeterUK Barcelona Supercomputing Centre BarcelonaSpain Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong KongChina National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration SeoulRepublic of Korea Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton University/University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchUSA University College London SurreyUK Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTokyoJapan European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUK Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the *** agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional *** addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall *** Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over ***-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for *** hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is *** for future areas of research are also discussed.

关键词： hurricane typhoon tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting forecast skill

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau joanne camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of Meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION ON SUBSEASONAL TIME-SCALES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 150-165页

作者： Suzana J.Camargo joanne camp Russell L.Elsberry Paul A.Gregory Philip J.Klotzbach Carl J.Schreck III Adam H.Sobel Michael J.Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C.Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi and Ruifen Zhan Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA Met Office ExeterUnited Kingdom Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate SchoolMontereyCA and TraumaHealthand Hazards CenterUniversity of Colorado-Colorado SpringsColorado SpringsCOUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoriaAustralia Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina(CICS-NC) North Carolina State UniversityAshevilleNCUSA Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA Weather Company/IBM AndoverMAUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUnited Kingdom Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of IllinoisUrbana-ChampagneILUSA Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTsukubaIbarikiJapan Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability and its *** has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales,and this effort has continued to make progress in recent *** the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO),other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales,in particular various equatorial ***,TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave *** has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC *** efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets,which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting *** there is positive skill in some cases,there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered,the basin examined,and whether the storms have extratropical influences or ***,the definition of skill differs among *** centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time.

关键词： tropical cyclones subseasonal forecasts hurricanes MJO

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克里斯和彼得露营(英文)

英语大王 2013年第Z1期 10-14页

作者： joanne M.Johnson

Chris and his little brother,Pete,were camping out in the backyard(后院)."I hope you boys dan’t get scared(害怕的)out here,"said Dad."I won’t,"said Chris."But Pete will.""I will not,"said Pete. Dad laughed*."Well,if you get scared,you can come back inside(里面). Good night,boys.""Good night,Dad,"said Chris."Good night,Dad,"said Pete.

关键词：克里斯过去式