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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2016年第4期7卷 413-429页

作者： Jia Yu jiahong wen Department of Geography Shanghai Normal University

This article introduces a framework for the multi-criteria satisfaction assessment of the spatial distribution of urban emergency shelters.A GIS-based analytic hierarchy process approach was utilized to conduct the assessment based on selected criteria layers for daytime and nighttime scenarios,*** layers were generated from high-precision land use data based on highresolution aerial images and census *** the uncertainty in criteria weighting,a spatial sensitivity analysis was undertaken for deriving more accurate *** feasibility of the framework was tested on a case study in Jing'an District,Shanghai,*** assessment results show that both at nighttime and during daytime,even if all potentially available shelters are open,the demand in large areas can only be marginally satisfied or not satisfied,especially in the northern,eastern,and central parts of Jing'an *** quantitative analysis of the satisfaction conditions of the buildings or land parcels and the affected people,especially children and the elderly,shows a low satisfaction level of shelter services in these *** satisfaction assessment of emergency shelters can help government decision makers find low satisfaction areas of sheltering services and support further locationallocation optimization of urban emergency shelters.

关键词： Population estimation Shanghai Spatial distribution Urban emergency shelters

Disaster Risk Reduction,Climate Change Adaptation and Their Linkages with Sustainable Development over the Past 30 Years:AReview

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第1期14卷 1-13页

作者： jiahong wen Chengcheng Wan Qian Ye Jianping Yan Weijiang Li School of Environment and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai200234China Integrated Risk Governance Project Beijing100875China Rodel Risk Solutions Inc. TorontoONM1W1J3Canada

The severe damage and impacts caused by extreme events in a changing climate will not only make the sustainable development goals difficult to achieve,but also erode the hard-won development gains of the *** article reviews the major impacts and challenges of disaster and climate change risks on sustainable development,and summarizes the courses and linkages of disaster risk reduction(DRR),climate change adaptation(CCA),and sustainable development over the past 30 *** findings show that the conceptual development of DRR actions has gone through three general phases:disaster management in the 1990s,risk management in the 2000s,and resilient management and development in the ***,CCA has been widely implemented to overcome the adverse effects of climate change.A framework is proposed for tackling climate change and disaster risks in the context of resilient,sustainable development,indicating that CCA is not a subset of DRR while they have similarities and differences in their scope and *** is crucial to transform governance mechanisms at different levels,so as to integrate CCA and DRR to reduce disaster and climate change risks,and achieve safe growth and a resilient future in the era of the Anthropocene.

关键词： Climate change adaptation Disaster risk reduction Resilience Sustainable development goals United Nations

Chinese Built-up Land in Floodplains Moving Closer to Freshwaters

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第3期12卷 355-366页

作者： Yongqiang Fang Shiqiang Du jiahong wen Min Zhang Jiayi Fang Min Liu Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of EducationSchool of Geographic SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HV AmsterdamNetherlands

Human proximity to water and its dynamics are important to understanding the socio-hydrological dilemma between using floodplains and avoiding flood ***,previous studies have not distinguished between the water proximity of built-up land in floodplains(BLF)and the water proximity of built-up land outside floodplains(BLOF).This article provides a new and spatiotemporal perspective of the BLF water proximities for understanding the changing flood risk in *** results show that China’s BLFs had an average water proximity of 5.41 km in *** of the BLFs(62%,25.889103 km2)were located within 3 km of *** 1990 to 2014,China’s BLFs increased rapidly by 81%from23.069103 km2 to 41.749103 km2,of which a large portion(57%)was concentrated in water surroundings(≤km),shortening the distance between BLFs and waterbodies by 169 *** BLF growth concentrated in water surroundings even in areas where BLFs have an overall increasing distance from *** the increases in the BLFs and their proximity to waterbodies can increase flood exposure and exacerbate flood *** scientific community and policymakers should pay attention not only to the volume of BLF growth,but also its spatial relationship with waterbodies.

关键词： China Floodplains Flood exposure Landscape sustainability Socio-hydrology Urbanization

Deficiency of Healthcare Accessibility of Elderly People Exposed to Future Extreme Coastal Floods:A Case Study of Shanghai,China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 840-857页

作者： Xinmeng Shan Paolo Scussolini Jun Wang Mengya Li jiahong wen Lei Wang Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for National Safety and Emergency Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands School of Public Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai200234China Department of Geography&Anthropology Louisiana State UniversityBaton RougeLA70803USA

Socioeconomic development,subsidence,and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities,making the vulnerable,especially elderly people,more prone to ***,we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future *** Shanghai as a case,this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this *** integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding,local population growth,and medical resource supply-demand *** results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050,in the absence of adaptation,half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods,the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand,and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by *** methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities,to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.

关键词： Coastal floods Elderly population Flood exposure analysis Healthcare accessibility Shanghai

Supply-Demand Analysis of Urban Emergency Shelters Based on Spatiotemporal Population Estimation

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第4期11卷 519-537页

作者： Xiaodong Zhang Jia Yu Yun Chen jiahong wen Jiayan Chen Zhan'e Yin School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China CSIRO Land and Water Canberra 2601Australia

Supply–demand analysis is an important part of the planning of urban emergency *** Pudong New Area,Shanghai,China as an example,this study estimated daytime and nighttime population of the study area based on fine-scale land use data,census data,statistical yearbook information,and Tencent user-density big *** exponential function-based,probability density estimation method was used to analyze the spatial supply of and demand for shelters under an earthquake *** results show that even if all potential available shelters are considered,they still cannot satisfy the demand of the existing population for evacuation and sheltering,especially in the northern region of Pudong,under both the daytime and the nighttime *** proposed method can reveal the spatiotemporal imbalance between shelter supply and *** also conducted a preliminary location selection analysis of shelters based on the supply–demand analysis *** location selection results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed *** can be applied to identify the areas where the supply of shelters is seriously inadequate,and provide effective decision support for the planning of urban emergency shelters.

关键词： Big data China population estimation Probability density estimation Supply-demand analysis Urban emergency shelters

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第4期13卷 577-591页

作者： Xinmeng Shan Jun Wang jiahong wen Hengzhi Hu Lei Wang Jie Yin Mengya Li Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of EducationEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Key Laboratory of Spatial-Temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities Ministry of Natural ResourcesShanghai 200241China School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China Department of Hospitality Management Shanghai Business SchoolShanghai 200235China Department of Geography and Anthropology Louisiana State UniversityBaton RougeLA 70810USA

Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep *** and robustness can be used to deal with future *** study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in *** options analysis(ROA)and dynamic adaptive policy pathways(DAPP)were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation *** results show that:(1)Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai;(2)Among the three flood control measures,wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio,followed by dry-floodproofing,and elevation;(3)Dryfloodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period(2030–2100),and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042;the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation,but its performance will decline after 2041–2045;(4)The combined strategy of dry-and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–*** methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.

关键词： Adaptation options Building-level measures Climate change Coastal floods Cost-benefit analysis Shanghai

Development and Applications of Dome A-DEM in Antarctic Ice Sheet

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Chinese Geographical Science 2007年第2期17卷 160-165页

作者： LIU Jiying wen jiahong WANG Yafeng WANG Weili Beata M CATHSO Kenneth CJEZEK Department of Geography Shanghai Normal University Shanghai 200234 China SGT NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Code 614.1 Greenbelt MD 20771 USA Byrd Polar Research Center the Ohio State University Columbus OH43210 USA

Dome A, the highest dome of East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is being an area focused by international Antarctic community after Chinese Antarctic Expedition finally reached there in 2005, and with the ongoing International Polar Year （IPY） during August 2007. In this paper two data processing methods are used together to generate two 100-m cell size digital elevation models （DEMs） of the Dome A region （Dome A-DEM） by using Cokriging method to interpolate the ICESat GLAS data, with Ihde-DEM as a constraint. It provides fundamental data to glaciological and geophysical investigation in this area. The Dome A-DEM was applied to determining the ice-sheet surface elevations and coordinates of the south and north summits, defining boundaries of basins and ice ftowlines, deducing subglacial topography, and mapping surface slope and aspect in Dome A region. The DEM shows there are two （north and south） summits in Dome A region. The coordinate and the surface elevation of the highest point （the north summit） are 80°21＇29.86＂S, 77°21＇50.29＂E and 4092.71±1.43m, respectively. The ice thickness and sub-ice bedrock elevation at north summit are 2420m and 1672m, respectively. Dome A region contains four drainage basins that meet together near the south summit. Ice ftowlines, slope and aspect in detail are also derived using the DEM.

关键词： Dome A ICESat GLAS Cokriging DEM Antarctica

Coastal protection using building with nature concept:A case study from Chongming Dongtan Shoal,China

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2021年第10期40卷 152-166页

作者： Zhentao Chong Min Zhang jiahong wen Luyang Wang Jie Mi Jeremy Bricker Stanley Nmor Zhijun Dai School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research(East China Normal University) Shanghai 200241China Department of Hydraulic Engineering Delft University of Technology2628 CN DelftThe Netherlands Department of Civil&Environmental Engineering University of MichiganAnn ArborMI 48109USA Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research4400 AC YersekeThe Netherlands

With climate change and rising sea levels,the coastal zone’s flood risk is *** researches have shown a gradually degrading capacity of traditional hard engineering structures(e.g.,seawall,dikes)on flood mitigation due to problems such as land subsidence and insufficient *** remedy the defects,the"building with nature concept"for coastal protection with saltmarshes was examined by combining field measurements and numerical *** advantages of saltmarsh over traditional seawall on flood protection was demonstrated from the perspective of both flood area mitigation and economic gain,based on scenario *** show that tidal wetlands are essential in mitigating significant wave heights(Hs)and current velocities even during storm *** storm wave and current velocity reduction ratio(RRw and RRc)by saltmarshes on Chongming Dongtan Shoal(CMDS)during Typhoon 9711 is approximately 11%and 51%,*** wave and current mitigation by Scirpus mariqueter are more efficient than Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis during measurements in 2010,which were approximately 0.3 m and 0.2 m/s,0.125 m and 0.155 m/s,0.086 m and 0.128 m/s per kilometer width,*** summer saltmarsh area 54.2 km2 on CMDS protects approximately 32 km^(2)land area behind the seawall from being flooded,equivalent to the seawall heightening of approximately 0.42 m on equivalent flood *** performance of cost-and-benefit analysis shows a relatively higher(by 3%–7%)net present value(NPV)and a higher(by 1.5 times)benefit-cost ratio(BC)of nature-based solution(i.e.,saltmarsh restoration)compared with traditional hard engineering solution(i.e.,seawall construction).Thus,building seawall with nature,such as a hybrid flood protection measure,should be implemented in the future coastal redesign and maintenance.

关键词： nature-based flood protection storm wave mitigation numerical simulation cost-benefit analysis Chongming Dongtan Shoal

The effect of seafloor topography in the Southern Ocean on tabular iceberg drifting and grounding

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第4期60卷 697-706页

作者： LI Tian LIU Yan CHENG Xiao OUYANG LunXi LI XinQing LIU JiPing Mohammed SHOKR HUI FengMing ZHANG Jing wen jiahong State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Joint Center for Global Change and China Green Development Beijing 100875 China Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany State University of New York Albany 12222 USA Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada Toronto Ontario M3HST4 Canada Department of Geography Shanghai Normal University Shanghai 200234 China

Antarctic tabular icebergs are important active components in the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean *** topography is the key factor that affects the drifting and grounding of icebergs,but it has not been fully *** study analyzes the impact of seafloor topography on the drifting and grounding of Antarctic tabular icebergs using Bedmap-2 datasets and iceberg route tracking data from Brigham Young *** results highlight the following points.(1) The quantitative distributions of iceberg grounding events and the tracking points of grounded icebergs are mainly affected by iceberg draft and reach their peak values in sea water with depths between 200 m and 300 *** peak tracking point number and linear velocity of free-drifting icebergs are found in the Antarctic Slope Front(water depth of approximately 500 m).(2) The area of possible grounding regions of small-scale icebergs calved from ice shelf fronts accounts for 28%of the sea area at water depths less than 2000 m outside the Antarctic coastline periphery(3.62 million km2).Their spatial distribution is mainly around East Antarctica and the Antarctic *** area of possible grounding regions of large tabular icebergs with long axes larger than 18.5 km(in water depths of less than 800 m) accounts for 74%of the sea area.(3) The iceberg drifting velocity is positively correlated with ocean depth in areas where the depth is less than 2000 m(R=0.85,P<0.01).This result confirms the effect of water depth variations induced by seafloor topography fluctuations on iceberg drifting velocity.

关键词： Antarctica Land cover Remote sensing

Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2011年第2期21卷 274-284页

作者： YIN Zhan'e YIN Jie XU Shiyuan wen jiahong Geography Dept. of Shanghai Normal University Shanghai 200234 China Geography Dept. of East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing＇an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System （GIS） approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

关键词： scenario modelling small-scale rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment Shanghai