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Analysis of Climate Variability, Perceptions and Coping Strategies of Tanzanian Coastal Forest Dependent Communities

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American j.urnal of Climate Change 2014年第2期3卷 212-222页

作者： j. j. kashaigili P. Levira E. Liwenga M. V. Mdemu Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA) University of Dar es Salaam Dar es Salaam Tanzania School of Urban and Regional Planning Ardhi University Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Climate variability and change are among the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Like in many other areas globally, the coastal communities of Tanzania have always been facing climatic variability at various time scales. Using focus group discussion and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate variability and change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by the selected coastal rural and peri-urban communities in Tanzania. The perception of climate variability and change is complemented with the time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature data from j.lius Nyerere International Airport Met. station and Kisarawe using Instant Statistical Software. Results indicate that households are aware of climate variability and identify indicators of climate change and variability as being decreasing rainfall trends, increasing incidences of droughts, unpredictable rainfall patterns, disappearance of wetlands and failure to predict on-set of rainy season using traditional knowledge. Households primarily attribute reduced crop yields to changes in rainfall pattern and increasing incidences of drought leading to soil moisture stress. The implications are that the agriculture dependent households are now food insecure. As a way of coping to the observed changes, the coastal communities among others have shifted to production of high value horticultural crops and use of forest resources. Nevertheless, the increased use of forest resources is threatening the existence of coastal forests and contributes to the decline of forest resources and disappearance of wildlife in the forest reserves. It is concluded that the communities studied are aware of climate issues as revealed from perceived indicators of climate variability and changes. The results from statistical analysis of 30 years climatic data are consistent with community’s perception of climate variability and change. The study recommends examining the present coping strategies for the sus

关键词： Adaptation Climate Variability and Change Coping Strategies Coastal Communities Perception Tanzania

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Evaluation for the Performance of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall Characteristics over Mbarali River Catchment in the Rufij. Basin, Tanzania

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j.urnal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2017年第4期5卷 139-151页

作者： Edmund Mutayoba j.phet j. kashaigili Department of Built Environmental Engineering Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania Department of Engineering Sciences and Technology Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Forest Resources Assessment and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the individual Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the ensemble average of the four RCMs to feign the characteristics of the rainfall pattern for the Mbarali River catchment in Rufij. Basin for the period of 1979 to 2005. Statistical analysis for model performance such as Root mean square error, Mean error, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mean, Median, standard deviation and trend analysis are used. In addition to the statistical measure of model performance, the models are tested on their ability to capture the observed annual cycles and interannual variability of rainfall. Results indicated that the RCMs from the CORDEX indicated a better performance to reproduce the rainfall characteristics over Mbarali River catchment in Rufij. Basin. They reproduced fairly the Era Interim annual cycle and inter-annual variability of rainfall. The ensemble average performed better than individual models in representing rainfall over Mbarali River catchment in Rufij. Basin. These suggest that rainfall simulation from the ensemble average will be used for the assessment of the hydrological impact studies over Mbarali River catchment in Rufij. Basin.

关键词： Climate Change CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Ensemble Average

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Analysis of Land-Cover Changes and Anthropogenic Activities in Itigi Thicket, Tanzania

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Advances in Remote Sensing 2016年第4期5卷 269-283页

作者： j.seph S. Makero j.phet j. kashaigili Forestry Training Institute Arusha Tanzania Department of Forest Resources Assessment and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

Assessing land cover changes from the 1991 to 2011 for Itigi thicket is imperative for determining changes between land cover types and understanding anthropogenic impact during this period. Remote sensing (RS) data, Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and forest inventory data were used. ILWIS 3.3 Academic software was used to analyze the satellite imageries to determine the land use, land cover change;while data on anthropogenic activities were analysed in MS Excel software. The results showed that between 1991/2000 and 2000/2011, the areas of thicket declined by 6.23% while non-thicket areas increased by 3.92%. The decline in thicket areas was attributed to increase in anthropogenic activities such as wood extraction, clearing for agriculture, livestock grazing and fires. The study highlights the importance of integrating remote sensing and forest inventory in understanding the thicket resources dynamics and generating information that could be used to overcome the Itigi thicket problems for the sustainability of this unique vegetation.

关键词： Itigi Thicket Land Cover Change Remote Sensing GIS

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Assessing the Hydrology of a Data-Scarce Tropical Watershed Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Case of the Little Ruaha River Watershed in Iringa, Tanzania

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Open j.urnal of Modern Hydrology 2017年第2期7卷 65-89页

作者： Winfred B. Mbungu j.phet j. kashaigili Department of Engineering Sciences and Technology Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Forest Resources Assessment and Management College of Forestry Wildlife and Tourism Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

The hydrology of the Little Ruaha River which is a maj.r catchment of the Ihemi Cluster in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SA-GCOT) has been studied. The study focused on the hydrological assessment through analysis of the available data and developing a model that could be used for assessing impacts of environmental change. Pressures on land and water resources in the watershed are increasing mainly as a result of human activities, and understanding the hydrological regime is deemed necessary. In this study, modeling was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in which meteorological and streamflow data were used in the simulation, calibration and evaluation. Calibration and evaluation was done at three gauging stations and the results were deemed plausible with NSE ranging between 0.64 and 0.80 for the two stages. The simulated flows were used for gap filling the missing data and generation of complete daily time series of streamflow at three gauging stations of Makalala, Ihimbu and Mawande. Results of statistical trends and flow duration curves, revealed decline in magnitudes of seasonal and annual flows indicating that streamflows are changing with time and may have implications on envisioned development and the water dependent ecosystems.

关键词： Hydrology Little Ruaha Anthropogenic Activities SWAT-CUP

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Historical and Future Spatial and Temporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in the Little Ruaha River Catchment, Tanzania

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j.urnal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2020年第2期8卷 76-96页

作者： Nyemo A. Chilagane j.phet j. kashaigili Edmund Mutayoba Department of Forest Resources Assessment and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Chemical Processing and Environmental Engineering Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania

Increased anthropogenic activities in the Little Ruaha River Catchment have modulated the catchment condition, nevertheless, the future changes as a result of increased anthropogenic activities are unknown. Understanding the future changes is vitally important for the design of appropriate strategies towards sustainable management of the catchment resources. This study applied Remote Sensing and GIS techniques (j.nsen & Lulla, 1987) to assess the historical long-term changes in land use and land cover using Landsat satellite images of 1990, 2005 and 2015, and modelled the future change in land use and land cover up to 2040 using the stochastic CA-Markov chain (Almeida et al., 2005). The historical land use and land cover change detection results indicate that between 1990 and 2005 the area under forest changed from 39,872 ha to 22,957 ha, woodland changed from 109,692 ha to 72,809 ha, wetland decreased from 19,157 ha to 11,785 ha, the cultivated land increased from 106,782 ha to 109,047 ha, likewise, the built-up area increased from 9408 ha to 11,674 ha. Results between 2005 and 2015 show the substantial changes where the forest decline from 22,957 ha to 15,950 ha, woodland decreased from 72,809 ha to 58,554 ha and the wetland changed from 11,785 ha to 5622 ha. Cultivated land and built up area increased from 109,047 ha and 11,674 ha to 143,468 ha and 13,765 ha respectively. Generally, the study has revealed the substantial decline in forest, woodland and wetland by 23,922 ha, 51,138 ha and 13,535 ha respectively, and an increase of cultivated land and built up area by 36,668 ha and 4357 ha respectively in 15 years, between 1990 and 2015. The predicted future land use and cover for the next 15 years (2040) showed an overall increase in cultivated land, built up area, grassland and bushland to 24.82%, 2.24%, 25.18% and 20.41% respectively, and a decrease in forest, woodland and wetland in the order of 1.87%, 7.87% and 0.03% respectively. The study concludes that, the

关键词： GIS Little Ruaha River CA Markov Chain Land Use and Land Cover Remote Sensing Tanzania

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Urban Climate Analysis with Remote Sensing and Climate Observations: A Case of Morogoro Municipality in Tanzania

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Advances in Remote Sensing 2017年第2期6卷 120-131页

作者： Siwa Ernest Augustino R. Nduganda j.phet j. kashaigili Tanzania Forestry Research Institute Morogoro Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

Rapid urbanization is threatening sustainable development of urban areas in Tanzania. Among the risks of rapid urbanization are Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and climate change. While this has been noted, it is not known to what extent these risks are being realized in fast growing urban areas like Morogoro and other areas of similar geographic and climatic conditions. Therefore a study was conducted to assess the influence of urbanization on UHI and climate in Morogoro Municipality using remote sensing and climate data. Landsat imageries acquired in 1990, 2000 and 2015 were used to assess the change of impervious surface for the year 1990 to 2015 using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART). Radiant surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were derived from thermal band and reflectance bands respectively. Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze climate data for trends. Results revealed an increase of impervious surface (built up areas) from 9 km2 in 1990 to 48 km2 in 2000 and 82 km2 in 2015;which is associated with UHI. UHI was not apparent in 1990, but was apparent in 2000 and 2015 with the temperature rise of 1.08°C and 1.22°C respectively. A linear relationship between radiant surface temperature (TB ) and percent Impervious Surface (ISA);and between TB and NDVI it revealed that NDVI is better indicator of variations in TB dynamics than percent ISA. Mann-Kendall test indicated a significant increasing trend in mean annual maximum temperature. The results imply that increasing ISA coupled with vegetation degradation has contributed to temperature rise and change. Consequently, Morogoro Municipality residents are likely to suffer heat stress due to rapid urbanization. It is recommended that education on the use of reflective surfaces should be given to the residents;and an effective master plan that protects vegetation should be in place.

关键词： Radiant Temperature Impervious Surfaces Urban Heat Island Random Forest Algorithm Mann-Kendall Test

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Assessing the Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Hydrology of the Mbarali River Sub-Catchment. The Case of Upper Great Ruaha Sub-Basin, Tanzania

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Engineering（科研） 2018年第9期10卷 616-635页

作者： Edmund Mutayoba j.phet j. kashaigili Frederick C. Kahimba Winfred Mbungu Nyemo A. Chilagane Department of Built Environmental Engineering Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania Department of Engineering Science and Technology Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Forest Resource Assessment and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

Intensification of agricultural land use and population growth from 1990-2017 has caused changes in land cover and land use of the Mbarali River sub-catchment which is located in the Upper Great Ruaha Sub basin, Tanzania. This has affected the magnitude of the surface runoff, total water yield and the groundwater flow. This study assesses the impacts of the land cover and land use changes on the stream flows and hydrological water balance components (surface runoff, water yield, percolation and actual evapotranspiration). The land use and land cover (LULC) maps for three window period snapshots, 1990, 2006 and 2017 were created from Landsat TM and OLI_TIRS with the help of QGIS version 2.6. Supervised classification was used to generate LULC maps using the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm and Kappa statistics for assessment of accuracy. SWAT was set up and run to simulate stream flows and hydrological water balance components. The assessment of the impacts of land use and land cover changes on stream flows and hydrological water balance component was performed by comparing hydrological parameters simulated by SWAT using land use scenarios of 2006 and 2017 against the baseline land use scenario of 1990. Accuracy of LULC classification was good with Kappa statistics ranging between 0.9 and 0.99. There was a drastic increase in areal coverage of cultivated land, for periods 1990-2006 (5.84%) and 2006-2017 (12.05%) compared to other LULC. During 2006 and 2017 surface runoff increased by 4% and 9% respectively;however, water yield increased by only 0.5% compared to 1990 baseline period. This was attributed to increased proportion of cultivated land in the sub-catchment which has a high curve number (59.60) that indicates a higher runoff response and low infiltration rate.

关键词： Geographic Information System (GIS) Mbarali River Sub-Catchment Land Use and Cover Change Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Water Balance Stream Flow

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Integrated Assessment of Forest Cover Change and Above-Ground Carbon Stock in Pugu and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves, Tanzania

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Advances in Remote Sensing 2013年第1期2卷 1-9页

作者： j.phet j. kashaigili Makarius V. Mdemu Augustino R. Nduganda Boniface P. Mbilinyi Ardhi University Dar es Salaam Tanzania Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania

A study was conducted to estimate the forest cover change, quantify and map tree above-ground carbon stock using Remote sensing and GIS techniques together with forest inventory. Landsat images of 1980, 1995 and 2010 acquired during dry season were used in the estimation of cover changes. Supervised image classification using Maximum Likeli-hood Classifier was performed in ERDAS Imagine software to analyze the images and further analysis was performed in Arc GIS 9.3 software. Stratified sampling procedure was used to select concentric inventory plots in Pugu Forest Reserve (PFR) and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserve (KFR). Plots were laid according to NAFORMA, and the tree parameters in each sampling plot were collected. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet was used to compute the above-ground bio- mass for each plot using an empirical equation relating wood basic density and tree height. The above-ground carbon was calculated using a conversion factor of 0.49. Geostatistical method in ArcGIS was used to analyze and map carbon. Results revealed that for the periods 1980-1995 and 1995-2010, Closed Forest in PFR decreased by 4.5% and 25.3% respectively, while for KFR, Closed Forest decreased by 11.9% and 31.3% respectively. The mean carbon density for PFR and KFR were respectively 5.72 tC/ha and 0.98 tC/ha while carbon stocks were 14 730.41 tC and 7 206.46 tC re- spectively. The revealed low carbon densities were attributable to decline in area under Closed Forest in the two Forest Reserves. The study recommends concerted efforts to enhance proper management of the forests so that the two forest reserves may contribute to REDD initiatives.

关键词： Land Cover Change Remote Sensing and GIS Pugu & Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves Carbon Stock Coastal Forests Tanzania

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Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Surface Runoff and Sediment Yield in the Little Ruaha River Catchment

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Open j.urnal of Modern Hydrology 2021年第3期11卷 54-74页

作者： Nyemo A. Chilagane j.phet j. kashaigili Edmund Mutayoba Paul Lyimo Pantaleo Munishi Christine Tam Neil Burgess Department of Forest Resources Assessment and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Water Supply and Irrigation Engineering Water Institute Dar es Salaam Tanzania Department of Ecosystem Sciences and Conservation Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania WWF Dar es Salaam Tanzania UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) Cambridge UK

Little Ruaha River catchment (6370 Km2) in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT), is one of the country’s most significant waterways due to its ecological composition and economic value. Regardless of its ecological and economical value, the regional hydrologic condition has been tremendously affected due to land uses alteration, influenced by different socio-economic factors. This study aimed to understand the associated impacts of the present Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change on the surface runoff and sediment yield in the Little Ruaha River Catchment. Hydrological modelling using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model) was done to quantify the impact of land use and land cover dynamics on catchment water balance and sediment loads. The calibration and validation of the SWAT model were performed using sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). The results showed that, for the given LULC change, the average annual surface runoff increased by 2.78 mm while average annual total sediment loading increased by 3.56 t/ha, the average annual base flow decreased by 2.68 mm, ground water shallow aquifer recharge decreased from 2.97 mm and a slight decrease in average annual ground water deep aquifer recharge by 0.14 mm. The model predicts that in the future, there will be a further increase in both surface runoff and sediment load. Such changes, increased runoff generation and sediment yield with decreased base flow have implications on the sustenance flow regimes particularly the observed reduced dry season river flow of the Little Ruaha River, which in turn cause adverse impacts to the biotic component of the ecosystem, reduced water storage and energy production at Mtera Hydroelectrical dam also increa

关键词： Land Cover Land Use Sediment Loading Surface Runoff SWAT Model

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Local Knowledge on the Influence of Land Use/Cover Changes and Conservation Threats on Avian Community in the Kilombero Wetlands, Tanzania

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Open j.urnal of Ecology 2014年第12期4卷 723-731页

作者： Wilbard A. Ntongani Pantaleo K. T. Munishi Stein R. More j.phet j. kashaigili Department of Forest Biology Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management University of Life Sciences As Norway Department of Forest Mensuration and Management Sokoine University of Agriculture Morogoro Tanzania

Local knowledge of the history and ecology of wetland ecosystems is very useful in wetland resources management, especially when other historical ecological information is not available and can be integrated with scientific knowledge to introduce better management of resources. The aims of this paper were to assess existing local knowledge on land use/cover changes in the Kilombero wetlands, thereafter investigate local knowledge on its effect on avian population in the wetland and identify factors influencing local knowledge on such changes in the study area. Random sampling was used to obtain representative sample population for this study. Structured questionnaire and focus group discussions were used to extract information from local people in six villages. Study results from multi-response analysis showed that natural forests had been converted into cropland and bushed grassland, grassland to crop land, grassland to grazed land, forest to settlement and grassland to settlement. Land use change was singled out as primary cause of decrease in avian community in the wetland. Threats to the conservation of avian species were identified as livestock grazing, drought, use of poison, traps and bush meat hunting for food. Age and education level were seen as determinants of household’s knowledge on the ecological changes. This pool of existing knowledge is important among wetland users and stakeholders in order to generate conservation strategies of the wetland ecosystem.

关键词： Local Knowledge Wetland Land Use Avian Conservation

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