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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2018年第7期7卷 253-265页

作者： iván ayala bizarro Miguel Zubiaur Alejos Jessica Zuniga Mendoza Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru Department of Civil Engineering National University of EngineeringLima 15333Peru AYZU Engineering Company Huancavelica 09001Peru

The aim of the study is to determine the performance of the regional agricultural drought prediction by the model of Ann(Artificial neural networks)type nARX,using the SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index),SPEI(Precipitation Index Standardized Evapotranspiration),VCI(Vegetation Condition Index)and GCI(Global Climate Indexes).There have been determined 10 homogeneous regions through RAF(regional frequency analysis)and L-moments,defining the most arid region and the index representing their respective time scale(SPEI 6 months)which responds to the growth and development of vegetation in the basin correlation Pearson equal to *** rainfall and temperatures correspond to PISCO data prepared by SEnAMHI-Peru,with space resolution of 0.05 *** prediction,they have determined two groups,the first to build the model with 80% of the registration and validation of the model and the hypothesis with the remaining 20%.The results have been satisfactory prediction accepting the null hypothesis.

关键词： Drought Ann SPI-SPEI-VCI RAF L-Moments

Flow Routing in the natural Channel of the Ichu River Experimental Basin through Artificial neural networks

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2018年第10期7卷 387-403页

作者： iván ayala bizarro Joel Oré Iwanaga David Requena Machuca Richard Oré Cayetano Edwin Torres Condori Edwin Montes Raymundo Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru

The objective of the investigation is to carry out the flow routing in the natural channel of the experimental basin of the Ichu river, by means of the Artificial Intelligence technique of Anns (Artificial neural networks). Generally, hydrological and hydraulic methods require different parameters of the river channel, while the Anns method simplifies the amount of data. The study area is located in the experimental basin of the Ichu river, upstream of the city of Huancavelica in an area of 607 km^2. A calibrated and validated model of the rain-runoff process was developed, with data recorded in 6 automatic meteorological stations (rainfall) and one hydrological station (runoff). The model HEC-1 was used to model the rain-runoff process and the Muskingun-Cunge method for the flood rounting, generating historical records for 5 stretches of the Ichu riverbed and obtaining 39 maximum historical records in the 2016 periods and 2017. The model obtained values of nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (E) equal to 0.851 and 0.828 for the calibration and validation stage, respectively. The Anns were built with different architectures to train and obtain the architecture that best fits the historical phenomena. Finally, the architecture 1-5-1 presented a better fit, whose statistical E was values of 0.881 and 0.859 in the training and validation stage respectively.

关键词： Rain-runoff process flood routing Anns

Performance between the Hydraulic Gradient Method and the Perturbation Method for the Analysis of Water Supply networks

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2020年第6期9卷 217-226页

作者： iván ayala bizarro Elviz Quispe García Marco Lopez Barrantes Freddy Marrero Saucedo Omar CaballeroSanchez Hugo Lujan Jeri Carlos Gaspar Paco Jorge Ortega Vargas Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru

The HGM(Hydraulic Gradient Method),it is used in most of the current commercial software,such as EPAnET,WaterCAD,Mikenet,among others,the same that corresponds to an iterative method that depends on initial estimated parameters and programming structures that ensure convergence to obtain results with the highest precision,in addition to this the method makes use of non-linear equation ***,the execution time for large extensions of water distribution networks is considerably *** the other hand,the PM(Perturbation Method),is a new direct solution method,which makes use of principles of quantum mechanics to transform nonlinear equations into simpler linear *** a simple and robust optimization method that only requires simple and direct mathematical *** the MathCad and Python programming languages as a verification tool,multiple tests were carried out,the results for the hydraulic parameters showing that the flow rates and pressures obtained by the HGM and the PM are extremely similar,in the same way the execution time(time run)have been 77.09%favorable to the *** other words,the PM presents efficiency to estimate the hydraulic characteristics such as the pressures at the nodes and the velocities in the pipes of the drinking water distribution networks.

关键词： Perturbation method quantum mechanics hydraulic gradient

Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica City, Peru

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2019年第6期8卷 241-248页

作者： iván ayala bizarro ivette Contreras Espinoza Cristel Aguirre Vera Marco López Barrantes Jorge Ortega Vargas Abdon Olivera Quintanilla Hugo Lujan Jeri Eleuterio Alcántara Espinoza Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru

The research entitled,“Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica city-Peru”,has as objective to determine and analyze the actual endowment and prognosis of the drinking water system in the city of *** city of Huancavelica has a population of approximately 50,000.00 inhabitants and 10,680.00 users of drinking water and sewerage according to the source Companies Providing This Service,the same one that is located in the western chain and central saw range of Perúand belongs to a cold *** sample was extracted through Companies Providing This Service EMAPA Huancavelica SA(Anonymous Society),which corresponds to 1,296 data from the consumption of water in cubic meters of each dwelling located in the various categories of each *** results obtained from the research indicate that the category that consumed more water during the period 2004-2018 was the domestic category,the same one that had an average of 1,152,123 cubic meters,this is due to the population growth of each *** the other side,the category that consumed the least water was the social category,the average consumption of which was 11,903.47 cubic *** addition,the greatest variability in water consumption is in the state category,the total variation being equal to 21.6%.In the Huancavelica city,water consumption has a growing trend and to predict the volume of drinking water consumption by 2030,water consumption was transformed by first differences,using the ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)model for total consumption model(0-1-1)(2-0-0)-12 and for the domestic consumption the ARIMA model(0-1-2)(0-0-2)-*** the other hand,water consumption was analyzed on a monthly basis in which there is greater variability for the months June-6 and *** was taken into account for the calculation of the endowment the domestic consumption,having values ranging from 6.45 L/inhab/day until 1,460 L/inhab/day,which re

关键词： Drinking water real consumption critical demand forecasting drinking water

Review of Statistical Water Temperature Models for a Peruvian Andean River

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2022年第5期11卷 155-164页

作者： Efrain noa-Yarasca Diana Chaca Ayuque Hugo A.Galvan Ccora ivan A.ayala bizarro Ada Arancibia School of Civil&Construction Engineering Oregon State UniversityCorvallisOR 97331USA Faculty of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru Faculty of Civil Engineering National University of EngineeringLima 15333Peru

The rapid increase in Water Temperature Rivers (WTR) observed globally in recent decades and projections for the coming decades under climate change scenarios make water temperature prediction essential to assess changes in aquatic biota. Statistical models for stream temperature prediction have been widely used because they are computationally simple, involve few parameters, and because of their relatively good accuracy. However, these models have not been evaluated in Peruvian Andean rivers. This work evaluates the main water temperature statistical models from the literature and fits them with data recorded in the Ichu River experimental watershed, Huancavelica-Peru. Three well-known models were reviewed: the Stefan & Preud’homme linear regression model and the Mohseni & Stefan 3- and 4-parameter logistic regression models. Ichu river water temperatures were simulated using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrometeorological model, which defaults to the Stefan & Preud’homme model. Modifications and adjustment of coefficients of the evaluated models were configured in the SWAT code using the “Latin Hypercube Sampling” technique. The evaluated models showed poor performance in predicting the water temperature in the Ichu River with nSE (nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) values ranging from -2.6 to 0.49, while the modified models showed nSE values of 0.72 in all three cases. Findings suggest that the statistical models shown in the literature should be validated for Andean rivers.

关键词： Water temperature modeling Ichu River Peruvian Andes River statistical modeling

Digestibility,Antioxidant and Anti-Inflammatory Activities of Pecan nutshell(Carya illioinensis)Extracts

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Journal of Renewable Materials 2022年第10期10卷 2569-2580页

作者： María Janeth Rodríguez-Roque Carmen Lizette Del-Toro-Sánchez Janet Madeline Chávez-ayala Ricardo iván González-Vega Liliana Maribel Pérez-Pérez Esteban Sánchez-Chávez nora AideéSalas-Salazar Juan Manuel Soto-Parra Rey David Iturralde-García María Antonia Flores-Córdova Facultad de Ciencias Agrotecnológicas Universidad Autónoma de ChihuahuaChihuahuaMéxico Universidad de Sonora Rosales y Niños Héroes S/NHermosilloSonMéxico Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo A.C.Unidad DeliciasDeliciasChihuahuaMéxico

Phenolic compounds are related to high biological activity,avoiding oxidation in food and human *** are by-products derived from the pecan nut processing that contain important amounts of phenols which biological activity must be *** research aimed to evaluate the antioxidant(DPPH,ABTS,FRAP and hemolysis)and anti-inflammatory activities of shell extracts from pecan nuts harvested during the crop production cycle 2018 and 2019,as well as the in vitro digestibility of their phenolic compounds,including *** showed that extracts from the crop production cycle 2018 obtained the highest yield,while those from 2019 contained the highest concentration of phenolic compounds,flavonoids and antioxidant capacity determined by DPPH(22.96 mmol ET),ABTS(91.55 mmol ET)and inhibition of hemolysis(92.12%).The anti-inflammatory activity exhibited an inhibition of the elastase enzyme up to 50 min and the bioaccessibility of phenolic compounds reached up to 32%.These results showed that pecan nutshell extracts are an important source of biologically active compounds,thus,they are suitable to be used as commodities in different fields such as agricultural,food and pharmaceutical *** studies must be carried out in order to elucidate the activity of nutshell extracts within in vivo systems.

关键词： Anti-inflammatory activity antioxidants digestibility shell phenolic compounds

Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第7期14卷 1241-1261页

作者： Franny G.MURILLO-GARCíA Mauro ROSSI Francesca ARDIZZOnE Federica FIORUCCI Irasema ALCánTARA-ayala Postgraduate in Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) IRPI CnR Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlfin, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility, magnitude （area-velocity ratio） and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources （Google Earth, aerial photographs and historical information）. Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques：（i） logistic regression, （ii） quadratic discriminant analysis, （iii） linear discriminant analysis, and （iv） neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model （DEM） of lo m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief. These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then, due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment （SAVE） model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments. Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.

关键词： Landslides Susceptibility HazardVulnerability Risk

Optimization of the Design of Structures in Coverage Using the Genetic Algorithm Method

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2019年第5期8卷 193-202页

作者： Marco Lopez Barrantes ivan ayala bizarro Kevin Escobar Curasma Rocky ayala bizarro Pedro Palomino Pastrana Cesar Jurado Mancha Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru

In this research work,an optimization of the design of steel structures is developed through Genetic Algorithms(Gas)with the objective of reducing the amount of material and with them the cost,for which the programming of the GAs tool in the Fortran programming language with the SAP2000 Application Programming Interface(API)v.19 using Visual Studio Professional 2015-Intel?Visual Fortran with Parallel Studio *** GAs method consists of randomly searching the Objective Function(OF)of the optimal variables with *** OF defined by the weight of the structure,the variables in relation to the cross sections of the structural elements and the constraints are the design of resistance using the method of Load and Resistance Factor Design(LRFD),restriction of displacements and restriction of the ratio of slenderness considered in the national Building Regulations(RnE),whose GAs search parameters are given by probability of crossing 70%by simple crossing strategy,probability of mutation 20%,elitism of 5%and maximum number of generations according to the *** examined metal structure is a cover with five double-body warren arches with 32 m light connected with 24 joists both with welded connections,that is,*** metal structure was evaluated on demand for loads(dead load,live load,snow load,wind load and earthquake loads).The structural design was carried out with the following profiles:circular,tubular,square,angular and normal Profile with I-shaped section(IPn)of which the most optimal was the tubular *** outer diameters of the cross section are:diagonal with a diameter of 1 in,lower flange with a diameter of 23/8 in,upper flange with a diameter of 11/2 in,inner belt with a diameter of 1 in and *** with a diameter of 11/2 in.

关键词： GA structure optimization resistance design with artificial intelligence design by resistance bending buckling

The Adverse Event Profile in Patients Treated with Transferon<sup>TM</sup>(Dialyzable Leukocyte Extracts): A Preliminary Report

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Pharmacology & Pharmacy 2015年第2期6卷 65-74页

作者： Toni Homberg Violeta Sáenz Jorge Galicia-Carreón iván Lara Edgar Cervantes-Trujano Maria C. Andaluz Erika Vera Oscar Pineda Julio ayala-Balboa Alejandro Estrada-García Sergio Estrada-Parra Mayra Pérez-Tapia Maria C. Jiménez-Martínez Clinical Trials Branch and Clinical Immunology Service Unit of External Services and Clinical Research (USEIC) National School of Biological Sciences National Polytechnic Institute Mexico City Mexico Unit of Pharmacovigilance Unit of External Services and Clinical Research (USEIC) National School of Biological Sciences National Polytechnic Institute Mexico City Mexico Department of Immunology National School of Biological Sciences National Polytechnic Institute Mexico City Mexico Unit of R&D in Bioprocesses (UDIBI) National School of Biological Sciences National Poly-technic Institute Mexico City Mexico Department of Biochemistry Faculty of Medicine National Autonomous University of Mexico Mexico City Mexico

Background: Dialyzable leukocyte extracts (DLE) are heterogeneous mixtures of peptides less than 10 kDa in size that are used as immunomodulatory adjuvants in immune-mediated diseases. TransferonTM is DLE manufactured by national Polytechnic Institute (IPn), and is registered by Mexican health-regulatory authorities as an immunomodulatory drug and commercialized nationally. The proposed mechanism of action of TransferonTM is induction of a Th1 immunoregulatory response. Despite that it is widely used, to date there are no reports of adverse events related to the clinical safety of human DLE or TransferonTM. Objective: To assess the safety of TransferonTM in a large group of patients exposed to DLE as adjuvant treatment. Methods: We included in this study 3844 patients from our Clinical Immunology Service at the Unit of External Services and Clinical Research (USEIC), IPn. Analysis was performed from January 2014 to november 2014, searching for clinical adverse events in patients with immune-mediated diseases and treated with TransferonTM as an adjuvant. Results: In this work we observed clinical nonserious adverse events (AE) in 1.9% of patients treated with TransferonTM (MD 1.9, IQR 1.7 - 2.0). AE were 2.8 times more frequently observed in female than in male patients. The most common AE were headache in 15.7%, followed by rash in 11.4%, increased disease-related symptomatology in 10%, rhinorrhea in 7.1%, cough in 5.7%, and fatigue in 5.7% of patients with AE. 63% of adverse event presentation occurred from day 1 to day 4 of treatment with TransferonTM, and mean time resolution of adverse events was 14 days. In 23 cases, the therapy was stopped because of adverse events and no serious adverse events were observed in this study. Conclusion: TransferonTM induced low frequency of nonserious adverse events during adjuvant treatment. Further monitoring is advisable for different age and disease groups of patients.

关键词： Dialyzable Leukocyte Extracts Adverse Events Monitoring Drug Safety Adjuvant Therapy Immunoregulation Guidelines Transfer Factor Pharmacovigilance

Analysis and Prediction of Risks From Rockfall in the Huancavelica City

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2019年第5期8卷 203-215页

作者： ivan ayala bizarro Victor Paitan Sedano Edman Ventura Sullca Marco Lopez Barrantes Hugo Lujan Jeri Abdon Olivera Quintanilla Jorge Ortega Vargas Carlos Gaspar Paco Department of Civil Engineering National University of HuancavelicaHuancavelica 09001Peru

This research refers to the analysis and prediction of rockfall risk,whose objective is to determine the results of the validation of the model and application of modeling in the Rocfall Software,in this way to prepare the map of risk ***,the general problem was identified:What are the results of the analysis and prediction of risks from rockfall in the city of Huancavelica?To respond to the problem posed,the following steps were carried out:obtaining field information with Drone equipment and using photogrammetric processes the topography of the study area was obtained,identification of unstable areas,trajectories,traces of the previously occurred landslides and five geomechanical *** specific weight of eight rock samples in the laboratory of the national University of Huancavelica was also calculated,which served to obtain the weight of the large-scale rock *** addition,the normal and tangential restitution coefficients were calibrated,that is,field *** the data were obtained,modeling was carried out by applying the Rocfall software,whose results of ten trajectories were:final distance reached,bounce height,kinetic energy and translational *** these values,risk maps have been prepared,taking into account the areas of housing vulnerability in the city of ***,it is proposed to mitigate these risks of rockfall,with dynamic barriers,which is important for the security of housing in the analysis sectors.

关键词： Risk prediction rockfall trajectory simulation