Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios(IFR;the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people)when the availability and qua...
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Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios(IFR;the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people)when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an *** We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek *** demonstrate the robustness,accuracy,and precision of this framework,and apply it to the United States(U.S.)COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 *** The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision;for instance,when applied to simulated validation data sets,across counties,Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928,respectively,and they showed strong robustness to model *** the county-level estimators to the real,unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1,2020 to September 30,2020 from across the U.S.,we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69,with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of *** The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.
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