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The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. china Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 4. Graduate School of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

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Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature:A cloud-resolving modeling study

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第5期19卷 587-594页

作者： Xiaopeng Cuia, Xiaofan Lib, Zhiping Zongc a Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms (LACS), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china b Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications, Camp Springs, MD, USA c National Meteorological Center, china Meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china [a]Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms (LACS) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China [b]Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications Camp Springs MD USA [c]National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated by analyzing the equilibrium simulation data (from day 31-40) obtained from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations with a zonal model domain of 768 km. Four experiments imposed by zonal SST perturbations of wavenumbers 1 (SST29Z1), 2 (SST29Z2), 4 (SST29Z4), and 8 (SST29Z8) are compared to the control experiment imposed by zonally uniform SST (SST29). The model domain mean SST is 29 °C, and the two-dimensional cloud-resolving model with a cyclic lateral boundary is also imposed by zero vertical velocity and constant zonal wind. The time and model domain mean surface rain rates in SST29Z1, SST29Z2, and SST29Z8 are about 10% larger than those in SST29, whereas the mean surface rain rates in SST29Z4 and SST29 are similar. The analysis of mean surface rainfall budgets shows that local water vapor and hydrometeor changes play important roles in determining the differences and similarities in mean surface rain rate between the perturbation experiments and the control experiment. Both convective and stratiform rain rates are larger in SST29Z1 and SST29Z2 than in SST29 due to the smaller advection of rain from convective regions into raining stratiform regions and the larger vapor condensation rates associated with the larger water vapor convergence over raining stratiform regions in SST29Z1 and SST29Z2. The convective rain rates are larger in SST29Z4 and SST29Z8 than in SST29 because of the larger condensation rates associated with the larger water vapor convergence over convective regions in SST29Z4 and SST29Z8. The stratiform rain rates in SST29Z4 and SST29Z8 are smaller than in SST29 due to the smaller vapor condensation rates and smaller collection rates of cloud water by rain over raining stratiform regions in SST29Z4 and SST29Z8.

关键词： Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses Sea surface temperature Zonal perturbation Cloud-resolving modeling study

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Use of the advanced microwave sounding unit data to improve typhoon prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第3期19卷 369-376页

作者： Guo Deng a,*, Dalin Zhang b, Tong Zhu c, Angsheng Wang d a National Meteorological Center, beijing 100081, china b Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, Maryland 20742, USA c Cooperative institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Colorado 80523, USA d institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china [a]National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China [b]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland Maryland 20742 USA [c]Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Colorado 80523 USA [d]Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The effects of incorporating the advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU-A) data with a modified Zhu-Zhang-Weng vortex- bogussing algorithm on typhoon prediction are examined through the use of the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The AMSU-A data contain the vertical distribution of the retrieved temperature from satellite brightness temperature, with the geopo- tential height and wind fields derived through a series of statistical and diagnostic calculations. The advantages of the modified vortex- bogussing algorithm include the incorporation of realistic asymmetric typhoon structures, the balanced dynamics with the background field, the easiness to implement and the effcient computations. To test the effciency of this vortex-bogussing algorithm, the Typhoon Dan event in 1999 is simulated by incorporating the derived AMSU-A fields into the initial conditions of the MM5 modeling system. Results show significant improvements in the track and intensity of the storm, as compared to the simulation without the AMSU-A data. Therefore, this modified vortex-bogussing algorithm can be easily implemented on any typhoon modeling system, which will improve the real-time forecast of tropical cyclones.

关键词： AMSU Satellite retrieval Typhoon prediction

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Interannual variation of North china rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

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Science Bulletin 2005年第18期 103-107页

作者： LU Riyu LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029, china

The rainfall in North china during rainy sea-son (July and August (JA)) exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North china rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North china rainfall is associ-ated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North china rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A pos-sible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North china rainfall.

关键词： North china rainfall in rainy season the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia interannual variability SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific convection over the western Pacific.

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Summer Arctic sea fog

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2001年第2期20卷 183-196页

作者： Xie Simei, Xue Zhenhe, Jiang Dezhong, Zou Bin, Qu Shaohou (1. National Research Center for Marine Environment Forecasts, beijing 100081, china 2. institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china) Natl. Res. Ctr. for Marine Envrn. Fo Beijing 100081 China

Synchronous or quasi-synchronous sea-land-air observations were conducted using advanced sea ice, atmospheric and marine instruments during china's First Arctic Expedition. *** on the Precious data from the expedition, it was found that in the Arctic Ocean, most part of which is covered with ice or is mixed with ice, various kinds of sea fog formed such as advection fog, radiation fog and vapor fog. Each kind he its own characteristic and mechanics of creation. In the southern part of the Arctic Ocean, due to the sufficient warm and wet flow there, it is favorable for advection fog to form, which is dense and lasts a long time. On ice cap or vast floating ice, due to the strong radiation cooling effect, stable radiating fog is likely to form. In floating ice area there forms vapor fog with the appearance of masses of vapor from a boiling pot, which is different from short-lasting land fog. The study indicates that the reason why there are many kinds of sea fog form in the Arctic Ocean is because of the complicated cushion and the consequent sea-air interaction caused by the sea ice distribution and its unique physical characteristics. Sea fog is the atmospheric phenomenon of sea-air heat exchange. Especially, due to the high albedo of ice and snow surface, it is diffcult to absorb great amount of solar radiation during the polar days. Besides, ice is a poor conductor of heat; it blocks the sea-air heat exchange. The sea-air exchange is active in floating ice area where the ice is broken. The sea sends heat to the atmosphere in form of latent heat; vapor fog is a way of sea-air heat exchange influencing the climate and an indicator of the extent of the exchange. The study also indicates that the sea also transports heat to the atmosophere in form of sensible heat when vapor fog occurs.

关键词： Arctic sea fog vapor fog radiation fog advection fog mechanism of the creation of sea fog

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Asymptotic behavior of perturbed solution for simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model for ENSO

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第S2期48卷 5-8页

作者： LIN Wantao~1 & MO Jiaqi~2 1. LASG, institute of atmospheric physics. chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of mathematics, Huzhou Normal College, Huzhou 313000. china chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys LASG Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Huzhou Normal Coll Dept Math Huzhou 313000 Peoples R China

The El Nio/La Nia and the Southern Oscilla-tion are an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropicalPacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, basedon a kind of simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model forENSO, using the perturbed theory and method, the asymp-totic behavior of solution of corresponding problem is stud-ied. It is proved from the results that the trajectories of phaseplane for coupled ocean-atmosphere model ultimately tend tothe stable attractors separately.

关键词： nonlinear perturb ENSO model.

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A modeling study of relation between cloud amount and SST over Western Tropical Pacific cloudy regions during TOGA COARE

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第2期19卷 187-193页

作者： Shouting Gaoa,Xiaopeng Cui a,Xiaofan Li b a Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms (LACS),institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china b Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research,Camp Springs,MD,USA [a]Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms (LACS) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China [b]Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research Camp Springs MD USA

The relationship between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) over Western Tropical Pacific cloudy regions during TOGA COARE is investigated based on hourly grid simulation data from a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from TOGA COARE for a 50-day period. The cloud amount becomes smaller when the ocean surface gets warmer,which is similar to previous relations obtained from observational analyses. As SST increases,the atmospheric temperature increases whereas the surface sensible heat flux decreases. The atmospheric water vapor is not sensitive to SST whereas the surface evaporation flux decreases as SST increases. These indicate that the oceanic effects do not play an important role in determining atmospheric heat and water vapor budgets. The cold atmosphere pro-duces a larger amount of ice clouds that cover a larger area than the warm atmosphere does. The large amounts of ice clouds lead to cooling of the ocean surface through reflecting large amount of solar radiation back to the space. Thus,the negative correlation between the cloud amount and SST only accounts for the important atmospheric effects on the ocean.

关键词： Cloud amount Sea surface temperature Coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model TOGA COARE

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Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the predictability of a numerical model for El Nino-Southern Oscillation

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2005年第10期 53-59页

作者： DUAN Wansuo and MU Mu (LASG,institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china)

The nonlinear optimization methods are applied to quantify the predictability of a numerical model for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We establish a lower bound of maximum predictability time for the model ENSO events (i. e. ENSO events in the numerical model), an upper bound of maximum prediction error, and a lower bound of maximum allowable initial error, all of which potentially quantify the predictability of model ENSO. Numerical results reveal the phenomenon of "spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO event and support the previous views on SPB. Additionally, we also explore the differences between the linear evolution of prediction error and its nonlinear counterpart. The results demonstrate the limitation of linear estimation of prediction error. All these above results suggest that the nonlinear optimization method is one of the useful tools of quantifying the predictability of the numerical model for ENSO.

关键词： ENSO model nonlinear optimization predictability.

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A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第5期3卷 258-262页

作者： QIN Xiao-Hao State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.

关键词： adaptive observations, CNOP, FSV, sensitive regions signal variance

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A model for assessing effects of climate change on runoff in china

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2003年第9期 63-69页

作者： SU Fengge and XIE Zhenghui(LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china)

A model is established for assessing the effects of climate change on runoff in china based on the land surface parameter-ization scheme variable infiltration capacity (VIC). The entire area of china is represented by 2604 cells with a resolution of 60km×60 km for each cell. Forcing data, soil and vegetation parameters needed by the VIC model for the entire area of china are prepared. Dailyforcing data, which are obtained from 740 stations between 1980 and 1990, are interpolated to the 60 km×60 km grid system. The VICmodel is run on every grid cell over the whole china, and a routing scheme is run offline with daily input of surface runoff and drainagefrom the VIC to get hydrograph at basin outlets. The spatial patterns of simulated runoff and mean annual precipitation are consistent verywell. The results of monthly streamflow simulations over the Huaihe and Weihe River basins indicate that there is a good agreement be-tween the observed and simulated values, and also initially indicate the rationalit

关键词： land surface parameterization scheme runoff evaluation model.

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