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Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 Climate Change Research Center,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 4 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china 1. Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 3. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 4. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi’an 710075 China 5. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National Center for atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

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Preliminary results of a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第21期55卷 2295-2305页

作者： LI Tao ZHOU GuangQing institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

We have established a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia and conducted a 20-year integration to evaluate its performance in reproducing the present *** coupled model consists of RegCM3 and HYCOM controlled by the OASIS3 coupler with resuolution of 60 km for the atmosphere and 33 km for the ocean,*** some other regional air-sea coupled models,a one-way nesting method is employed in the oceanic component and a heat flux adjustment for solar radiation is used to remove an about 2°C cold bias in *** primary analysis for this 20-year integration shows that the coupled model successfully reproduces the main features of the circulations over East Asia,both in the atmosphere and the ocean,including climatology,seasonal and interannual *** are seen in the coupled model compared to the uncoupled one,especially in the simulation of precipitation,the most important element of the East Asian monsoon,although there are still obvious discrepancies that come mainly from the model components *** analyses show that the rainfall simulation benefits from the enhancements of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High in summer,which leads to the improvement of the moisture flux simula-tion at the middle-lower atmospheric *** results indicate that the regional air-sea coupled model is more suitable for the East Asia monsoon simulation.

关键词：海气耦合模式东亚地区空气西北太平洋副高大气环流海域耦合模型模拟降雨

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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Variational iteration solving method of a sea-air oscillator model for the ENSO

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第2期17卷 230-232页

作者： MO Jiaqi, LIN Wantao and WANG Hui ( Department of Mathematics, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, china Division of Computational Science, E-institutes of Shanghai Universities, at SJTU, Shanghai 200240, china LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china chinese academy of Meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china) [a]Department of Mathematics Anhui Normal University Wuhu China [b]Division of Computational Science E-Institures of Shanghai Universities at SJTU Shanghai China [c]LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Bejing China [d]chinese academy of Meterological sciences Beijing China

A time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an asymtotic solving method of nonlinear equation for the ENSO model. And based on a class of oscillators of ENSO model, employing the variational iteration method, the approximate solution of corresponding problem is obtained. It is proven from the results that the method of variational iteration method can be used for analyzing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for ENSO model.

关键词： Nonlinear problem, time delay, El Nino-Southern oscillator model variational iteration.

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Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall process

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第9期16卷 967-973页

作者： ZHOU Yushu , GUI Xiaopeng and LI Xiaofan ( institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications Camp Springs, Maryland, USA) [a]chinese academy of sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing China [b]Joint center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications Camp Springs Maryland USA

Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall processes is investigated in a life span of tropical convection based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud resolving simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind and horizontal advections obtained from tropical ocean global atmosphere coupled ocean-atmosphere response experiment (TOGA COARE). The results show that during the genesis, development, and decay of tropical convection, calculations with water vapor overestimate surface rain rate, and cloud condensate plays an important role in correcting overestimation in surface rain rates. The analysis is carried out in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds during the development of tropical convection. The surface rain rates calculated with water vapor in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds have similar magnitudes, the large surface rain rate appears in deep convective clouds due to the consumption of water hydrometeors whereas the small surface rain rate occurs in anvil clouds because of the gain of ice hydrometeors. Further analysis of the grid data shows that the surface rain rates calculated with water vapor and with cloud condensate are negatively correlated with the correlation coefficient of - 0.85, and the surface rain rate calculated with cloud condensate is mainly contributed to the water hydrometeors in the tropical deep convective regime.

关键词： cloud condensate surface rain rate cloud resolving simulation.

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Two possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第2期49卷 202-211页

作者： LUO Zhexian2, ZHOU Xiuji1 & GAO Shouting3 1. chinese academy of Meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china 2. Department of Space Information Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, china 3. institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Environmental Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 1. chinese academy of Meteorological sciences Beijing 100081 China 3. institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The vortex self-organization is investigated in this paper by four groups of numerical experiments within the framework of quasi-geostrophic model, and based on the experimental results two types of possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization are suggested. The meso-scale to-pography may enable separated vortices to merge into a larger scale vortex; and the interaction of meso-γ and meso-β scale systems may make separated vortices to self organize a typhoon-like vor-tex circulation.

关键词： vortex, self-organization, meso-scale topography, interaction of different scales.

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Influence of atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical western North Pacific on the inter-decadal variations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of water vapor

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第8期51卷 1179-1193页

作者： ZHAN RuiFen1,2&LI JianPing2 1Shanghai Typhoon institute of china Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,china 2State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 1. Shanghai Typhoon institute of china Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This study investigates the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange(STE) of water vapor,emphasizes its interdecadal variations over Asia in boreal summer,and discusses the influences of atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) on them by using the Wei method with reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) for the years of *** climatology shows that the upward transport of water vapor across the tropopause in boreal summer is the most robust over the joining area of the South Asian Peninsula and Indian-Pacific Oceans(defined as AIPO).The upward transport over there can persistently convey the abundant water vapor into the stratosphere and then influence the distribution and variation of the stratospheric water *** analysis shows that interdecadal variations of the water vapor exchange over the AIPO are significant,and its abrupt change occurred in the mid-1970s and the early *** these three periods,as important channels of the water vapor exchange,the effect of Bay of Bengal-East Asia as well as South china Sea was gradually weakening,while the role of the WNP becomes more and more *** studies show that atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the WNP are two main factors in determining the interdecadal variations of water vapor *** thermal influences over the Tibetan Plateau and the WNP have been greatly adjusted over the pass 44 *** synthesis influences the interdecadal variations of the water vapor exchange by changing the Asian summer monsoon,but their roles vary with time and *** after 1992,the influence of heat source over the Tibetan Plateau remarkably weakens,while the heat source over the WNP dominates the across-tropopause water vapor *** have important implications for understanding the transport of other components in the atmosphere and estimating the impact of human activities(

关键词： Tibetan Plateau tropical western North Pacific atmospheric heat source STE inter-decadal variations

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Influence of interannual variability of Antarctic oscillation on mei-yu along the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley and its importance to prediction

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第S2期48卷 61-67页

作者： GAO Hui~(1,2), XUE Feng~1 WANG Huijun~1 1. institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Nanjing institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044. china chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Nanjing Inst Meteorol Dept Atmospher Sci Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China

Both correlation analysis and case study indi-cate that Antarctic oscillation (AAO) is closely related withsummer rainfall in eastern china. When AAO is stronger inboreal spring, especially in May, there is more mei-yu rain-fall in summer with a longer period along the Yangtze andHuaihe River valley. In contrast, there is less rainfall with ashorter period corresponding to a weaker AAO. Besides, ananomalous AAO changes the position and intensity of severalcirculation systems, which are important to summer rainfallalong the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley. Furthermore, theAntarctic sea ice is negatively correlated with the intensity ofAAO with a 6-month leading time. The result in this studyprovides a new method for the prediction of mei-yu.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation interannual variability mei-yu Antarctic sea ice.

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Evolution of desertification in a two-dimensional energy balance model coupled with thermodynamics and dynamics

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Science china Earth sciences 2010年第11期53卷 1726-1733页

作者： CHAO JiPing1,2 & LI YaoKun3,4 1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, beijing 100081, china 2First institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, china 3State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 4Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 1. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China2. First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China4. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The relationship between desert evolution and change in albedo has been investigated quasi-analytically using a zonal mean two-dimensional energy balance model which considers the radiation transmission process due to thermodynamics and bound- ary layer movement caused by kinetics. A climate state including temperature, zonal wind, meridional wind and vertical wind can be simulated according to the current zonal distribution of albedo. Given desert distribution, characterized by the value and distribution of albedo, the response of climate on albedo has been studied to analyze the evolution of desert climate. One significant result is that the simple model can reproduce mean meridional circulation. Another result indicates that climate corresponds to two equilibria. This happens when the junction temperature between vegetation and desert is higher than a certain critical value. As for the first equilibrium, the desert belt is predicted to move southward in the northern hemisphere with the increasing values of albedo, which corresponds to the current trend of climate change. For the second equilibrium, vegetation will expand northward with increasing values of albedo, which would indicate a narrowing of the desert belt. In order to determine if the two equilibria exist, new physical models are needed.

关键词： two-dimensional energy balance model desertification two equilibria

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The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2010年第6期29卷 26-34页

作者： LIU Changzheng XUE Feng National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and the Antarctic oscillation （AAO） at the quasi-quadrennial （QQ） *** is found that the cold tongue index （CTI） and the AAO index （AAOI） are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month *** further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure （SLP） anomalies from 1951 to *** results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 （GTW1） propagating *** the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern ***,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean *** the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed *** a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and *** can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ *** is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern *** the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.

关键词： ENSO Antarctic oscillation the quasi-quadrennial timescale the global tropical wave of wavenumber 1

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