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Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2023年第10期23卷 367-386页

作者： Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.J.Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov hermann harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim LászlóSzarka Víctor M.Velasco Herrera Hong Yan Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science(EPSS) SopronHungary Retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmöSweden Retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnológica NacionalColón 332San Nicolás(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Ionosfera Atmosfera Neutra y Magnetosfera(LIANM)Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologíaUniversidad Nacional de TucumánAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumánArgentina Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas—Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) 4000 TucumánArgentina Faculty of Geography Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway Professor Emeritus College of EarthOceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia21I-80126 NaplesItaly Retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromsøNorway Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacán04510México D.F.México State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China Department of Mathematics and Physics Shaoxing UniversityShaoxing 312000China

Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly *** Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data *** compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear *** argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution *** also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were ***,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et *** confirmed for all five ST data ***,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar-terrestrial relations Earth

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How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2021年第6期21卷 131-198页

作者： Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.John Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov hermann harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Sebastian Liming Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim Laszlo Szarka Harry van Loon Victor M.Velasco Herrera Richard C.Willson Hong Yan Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmoSweden Retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comision de Investigaciones Cientlficas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnologica NationalColpn 332San Nicolas(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Fisica de la Atmosfera Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologlaUniversidad National de TucumanAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumanArgentina Instituto de Fisica del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientficas y Tecnicas-Universidad Nacional de Tucuman) 4000 TucumanArgentina Faculty of Geography LomonosovMoscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway College of Earth Oceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Institute for Hydrography Geoecology and Climate SciencesHauptstra/3e 476315 AgeriSwitzerland Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico nComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia2180126 NaplesItaly Retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromspNorway ELKH Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science 9400 SopronCsatkai utca 6-8Hungary Retired formerly National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacan04510Mexico D.F.Mexico Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor(ACRIM) CoronadoCA 92118USA State Key Laboratory of Loe

In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both *** different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the *** of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature *** standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier ***,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th *** each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares *** role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time *** all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so be

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar terrestrial relations (Sun:)sunspots Sun:faculae,plages

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Geoscience material structures prediction via CALYPSO methodology

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Chinese Physics B 2019年第10期28卷 38-49页

作者： Andreas hermann Centre for Science at Extreme Conditions and SUPA School of Physics and Astronomy The University of Edinburgh

Many properties of planets such as their interior structure and thermal evolution depend on the high-pressure properties of their constituent materials. This paper reviews how crystal structure prediction methodology can help shed light on the transformations materials undergo at the extreme conditions inside planets. The discussion focuses on three areas:(i) the propensity of iron to form compounds with volatile elements at planetary core conditions(important to understand the chemical makeup of Earth's inner core),(ii) the chemistry of mixtures of planetary ices(relevant for the mantle regions of giant icy planets), and(iii) examples of mantle minerals. In all cases the abilities and current limitations of crystal structure prediction are discussed across a range of example studies.

关键词： crystal structure prediction core materials planetary ices hydrous minerals

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Running‑In Behavior of Wet Multi‑plate Clutches:Introduction of a New Test Method for Investigation and Characterization

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Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2020年第2期33卷 152-160页

作者： Katharina Voelkel hermann Pflaum Karsten Stahl Gear Research Centre(FZG) Technical University of MunichGarchingGermany

Wet multi-plate clutches are relevant components of modern drivetrain applications,not only in terms of function but also safety and *** at the beginning of their lifetime,distinct changes of the friction behavior may occur and make the actuation of the clutch *** transcript describes the typical running-in behavior of wet multi-plate clutches and gives a general definition for running-in of ***,a new test method to systematically investigate the running-in behavior of clutches is *** test method contains a test procedure to characterize the running-in behavior on different load ***,a multi-stage procedure to evaluate and characterize the running-in behavior of clutches with mathematical approaches and new characteristic values is *** quality of the test method is demonstrated on the example of three different tribological systems from dual clutch transmissions(DCT)and automatic transmissions(AT)application using paper friction linings.

关键词： Clutch Running-in Test method Paper friction lining

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Blow-up behavior of Hammerstein-type delay Volterra integral equations

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Frontiers of Mathematics in China 2013年第2期8卷 261-280页

作者： Zhanwen YANG hermann BRUNNER Science Research Center Academy of Fundamental and Interdisciplinary Science Department of Mathematics Harbin Institute of Technology Harbin 150001 China Department of Mathematics Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong SAR China Department of Mathematics and Statistics Memorial University of NewfoundlandSt. John's NL AIC 557 Canada

We consider the blow-up behavior of Hammerstein-type delay Volterra integral equations （DVIEs）. Two types of delays, i.e., vanishing delay （pantograph delay） and non-vanishing delay （constant delay）, are considered. With the same assumptions of Volterra integral equations （VIEs）, in a similar technology to VIEs, the blow-up conditions of the two types of DVIEs are given. The blow-up behaviors of DVIEs with non-vanishing delay vary with different initial functions and the length of the lag, while DVIEs with pantograph delay own the same blow-up behavior of VIEs. Some examples and applications to delay differential equations illustrate this influence.

关键词： Delay Volterra integral equation (DVIE) non-vanishing delay vanishing delay blow-up of solution

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A SPECTRAL METHOD FOR PANTOGRAPH-TYPE DELAY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND ITS CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 2009年第2期27卷 254-265页

作者： Ishtiaq Ali hermann Brunner Institute of Computational Mathematics Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Department of Mathematics COMSA TS Institute of Information Technology IslamabadPakistan hermann Brunner Department of Mathematics and Statistics Memorial University of NewfoundlandSt.John’sCanada Department of Mathematics Hong Kong Baptist UniversityHong KongChina

We propose a novel numerical approach for delay differential equations with vanishing proportional delays based on spectral methods. A Legendre-collocation method is employed to obtain highly accurate numerical approximations to the exact solution. It is proved theoretically and demonstrated numerically that the proposed method converges exponentially provided that the data in the are smooth. given pantograph delay differential equation

关键词： Spectral methods Legendre quadrature formula Pantograph-type delay differential equations Error analysis Exponential convergence

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Overview of Particles and Bubbles in Continuously Cast Steel

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Journal of Iron and Steel Research International 2011年第S2期18卷 211-219页

作者： Karl-hermann TACKE AG der Dillinger Hüttenwerke P.O. Box 1580 D-66748 Dillingen/Saar Germany

This paper gives an overview of phenomena associated with particles and bubbles in continuously cast steel. During steel processing from deoxidation to solidification the inclusion population undergoes changes with opportunities of removal. Flotation is an important separation mechanism. Inclusion particles may accumulate in the solidifying strand, thus forming enriched bands, which depend on the type of casting machine. Bubbles are created during inert gas injection. They also change in size, can float out, but also form accumulation bands. The interaction of bubbles and particles is discussed. Internal structure that recently has been observed on the inner surface of bubbles will be reviewed.

关键词： continuous casting solidification inclusions particles agglomeration accumulation bands gas injection bubbles attachment flotation inner surface wave rings terraces

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Simulating orthokinetic heterocoagulation and cluster growth in destabilizing suspensions

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Particuology 2017年第2期15卷 117-128页

作者： Fabian Billow hermann Nirschl Willy Dorfler Institute of Mechanical Process Engineering and Mechanics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology 76131 Karlsruhe Germany Institute for Applied and Numerical Mathematics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology 76131 Karlsruhe Germany

Using direct numerical simulation, we investigate the coagulation behavior of non-Brownian colloidal particles as exemplified by Al2O3 particles. This yields the so-called capture efficiency, for which we give an analytical expression, as well as other time-dependent variables such as the cluster growth rate. Instead of neglecting or strongly approximating the hydrodynamic interactions between particles, we include hydrodynamic and non-hydrodynamic interactions in a Stokesian dynamics approach and a comprehensive modeling of the interparticle forces. The resulting parallelized simulation framework enables us to investigate the dynamics of polydisperse particle systems composed of several hundred particles at the same high level of modeling we used for a close investigation of the coagulation behavior of two unequal particles in shear flow. Appropriate cluster detection yields all the information about large destabilizing systems, which is needed for models used in flow-sheet simulations. After non-dimensionalization, the results can be generalized and applied to other systems tending to secondary coagulation

关键词： Destabilization Coagulation Capture efficiency Al2O3 Cluster detection Stokesian dynamics

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Influence of drag laws on pressure and bed material recirculation rate in a cold flow model of an 8 MW dual fluidized bed system by means of CPFD

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Particuology 2018年第1期16卷 70-81页

作者： Stephan Kraft Friedrich Kirnbauer hermann Hofbauer Bioenergy 2020+ GmbH Wiener Strasse 49 A- 7540 Gussing Austria TU Wien Institute of Chemical Engineering Getreidemarkt 9/166 Vienna Austria

A cold flow model of an 8 MW dual fluidized bed （DFB） system is simulated using the commercial compu- tational particle fluid dynamics （CPFD） software package Barracuda. The DFB system comprises a bubbling bed connected to a fast fluidized bed with the bed material circulating between them. As the hydrodynam- ics in hot DFB plants are complex because of high temperatures and many chemical reaction processes, cold flow models are used. Performing numerical simulations of cold flows enables a focus on the hydro- dynamics as the chemistry and heat and mass transfer processes can be put aside. The drag law has a major influence on the hydrodynamics, and therefore its influence on pressure, particle distribution, and bed material recirculation rate is calculated using Barracuda and its results are compared with experimental results. The drag laws used were energy-minimization multiscale （EMMS）, Ganser, Turton-Levenspiel, and a combination of Wen-Yu]Ergun. Eleven operating points were chosen for that study and each was calculated with the aforementioned drag laws. The EMMS drag law best predicted the pressure and dis- tribution of the bed material in the different parts of the DFB system. For predicting the bed material recirculation rate, the Ganser drag law showed the best results. However, the drag laws often were not able to predict the experimentally found trends of the bed material recirculation rate. Indeed, the drag law significantly influences the hydrodynamic outcomes in a DFB system and must be chosen carefully to obtain meaningful simulation results. More research may enable recommendations as to which drag law is useful in simulations ofa DFB system with CPFD.

关键词： Cold flow modeling Fluidization Computational particle fluid dynamics(CPFD) simulation Dual fluidized bed Computational fluid dynamics

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A language to analyze, describe, and explore collections of visual art

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Visual Computing for Industry,Biomedicine,and Art 2021年第1期4卷 29-49页

作者： hermann Pflüger Institute for Visualization and Interactive Systems University of Stuttgart70569 StuttgartGermany

A vast quantity of art in existence today is inaccessible to *** people want to know the different types of art that exist,how individual works are connected,and how works of art are interpreted and discussed in the context of other works,they must utilize means other than simply viewing the ***,this paper proposes a language to analyze,describe,and explore collections of visual art(LadeCA).LadeCA combines human interpretation and automatic analyses of images,allowing users to assess collections of visual art without viewing every image in *** paper focuses on the lexical base of *** also outlines how collections of visual art can be analyzed,described,and explored using a LadeCA ***,the relationship between LadeCA and indexing systems,such as ICONCLASS or AAT,is demonstrated,and ways in which LadeCA and indexing systems can complement each other are highlighted.

关键词： Collections of visual art Visual computing Personalized digital libraries Digital humanities Semantics

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