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Earthquake Research in china 1997年第4期11卷 81-88页

作者： gao mengtan and xu guangyininstitute of geophysics,ssb,beijing 100081,china

Based on the models of non-uniform earthquake distribution in the potential source,the seismic zonation of Western Panzhihua and Central and Southern Shanxi Province is *** results show that the usual uniform distribution model may underestimate the seismic risk and result in a reduction of the areas of high *** influence of each non-uniform probabilistic distribution method on the result of seismic zoning is discussed.

关键词： seismic zonation probabilistic nonhomogeneous distribution.

High-probability ground motion simulation in Maduo County for the Maduo M7.4 earthquake in 2021: A possible supershear earthquake

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年

作者： Zongchao Li Zhiwei Ji Jize Sun Hiroe Miyake Yanna Zhao Hongjun Si mengtan gao Yi Ding Institute of geophysics， china Earthquake Administration Institute of Earthquake Forecasting， china Earthquake Administration Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction Earthquake Research Institute， The University of Tokyo Geophysical Exploration Center， china Earthquake Administration beijing University of Technology

On May 22， 2021， an Ms7.4 earthquake occurred in Maduo County， Qinghai Province， on the western plateau of china. The level of seismic monitoring in this area was inadequate， and incomplete seismic waveforms were obtained from a few broadband seismometers located within 300 km of the epicentre. All waveforms showed "truncation" phenomena. The waveforms of earthquakes can guide ground motion inputs in near-fault areas. This paper uses the empirical Green's function method to consider the uncertainties in source parameters and source rupture processes by synthesizing high-probability， accurate waveforms in Maduo County （MAD station） near the epicentre. The acceleration waveform at the DAW strong-motion station， located 176 km from the epicentre， is first synthesized with the observed waveform of the mainshock. This critical step not only provides a more accurate source and rupture model of the Maduo earthquake but also establishes an essential reference standard. Secondly， the inferred models are rigorously applied to synthesize the acceleration waveform of the MAD station， ensuring that the results maintain a high accuracy and probability. The findings suggest that （1） the simulated acceleration waveform for the MAD station can better characterize the actual ground motion characteristics of the Ms7.4 earthquake in Maduo County， with high accuracy and probability in peak ground acceleration （Abbreviated as PGA） ranges of 140–240 cm/s2and 350–390 cm/s2， respectively， and （2） the Ms7.4 earthquake did not undergo a complete supershear rupture process. The first asperity located on the east side of the epicentre is most likely to undergo supershear rupture. However， the Maduo earthquake may have been a complete subshear rupture. （3） The fault dislocation model of the three-asperity model better matches the actual source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake. This method can provide relatively accurate acceleration waveforms for regions with limited earthquake monitoring

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Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years

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Earthquake Research in china 1995年第4期9卷 10-17页

作者： gao mengtan and Wang JianInstitute of geophysics,ssb,beijing 100081,china

Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year *** by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be *** consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s *** the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in china,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North china is used to discuss the application of the *** method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 *** to

关键词： probability model medium-term prediction

Evaluation of Uncertainty of Earthquake Parameters for the Purpose of Seismic Zoning of Iran

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Earthquake Research in china 1997年第2期11卷 78-93页

作者： Mirzaei Noorbakhsh,gao mengtan,and Chen YuntaiInstitute of geophysics,ssb,beijing 100081,china Institute of geophysics,Tehran University,Tehran 14394,Iran

An efficient procedure is used for explicit description and evaluation of uncertainty of earthquake parameters in the uniform catalog of earthquakes in Iran and neighboring *** inadequate number of local and regional seismographic stations,poor station distribution,and Inadequacy of velocity models have resulted in conspicuous uncertainty in different parameters of recorded *** a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis such uncertainties should be *** of magnitude and location of events are evaluated for three different time periods,namely,historical,early instrumental,and modern instrumental time periods,for which existing seismological information differ widely in quantity,quality,and *** is concluded that an uncertainty of 0.2-0.3 units of magnitude and 10-15 km in epicenter determinations should be considered in the most favorable *** of the hypocenters of earthquakes in Iran can be considered as reliable,unless supported by other information such as

关键词： Evaluation of Uncertainty of Earthquake Parameters for the Purpose of Seismic Zoning of Iran ISC

Statistical Analysis on Depth Distribution Model of Earthquake Hypocenters

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Earthquake Research in china 2002年第2期16卷 113-119页

作者： xu Guangyin, gao mengtan, Yu Yanxiang and Wang JianInstitute of geophysics, CSB, beijing 100081, china Institute of geophysics CSBBeijing 100081China

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth <70 km) data, recorded with orientation precision grades 1 and 2 by modern instrument and containing depth informatio... 详细信息

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth china seismic region, Central china seismic region, South china seismic region, Xinjiang seismic region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau seismic region are chosen as statistical units to study the depth distribution characteristics of shallow earthquakes. Considering the differences of depth distribution characteristics of earthquakes with different magnitudes, the following magnitude intervals are adopted to analyze earthquakes with different magnitude scales, respectively: M S=2.0～2.9, M S=3.0～3.9, M S=4.0～4.9, M S=5.0～5.9 and M S=6.0～6.9. The results show that hypocenter depths are normally distributed by and large around the mean depth of the corresponding seismic region. The probabilistic distribution curves of earthquake depth in West china are wider than those in East china. The probabilistic distribution deviation, σ, of West china is greater than those of East china, that is, earthquakes in West china have a wider range in terms of depth. There is also a tendency that the absolute value of mean hypocenter depth increases with the magnitude by and large.

关键词： Shallow earthquake Hypocenter depth Distribution model Seismic region Magnitude interval

Seismic Hazard Analysis of china's Mainland Based on a New Seismicity Model

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第2期14卷 280-297页

作者： Weijin xu Jian Wu mengtan gao Institute of geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing100081China china Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center Beijing100029China

Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of china(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of china’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in *** also provided the probabilities of china’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin *** spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more *** seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large *** indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and *** are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and *** results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk *** hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for china’s mainland.

关键词： china’s mainland New seismicity model Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) Seismic fault model Seismic risk areas

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日本能登半岛7.6级地震的教训与启示

中国应急救援 2024年第3期 76-80页

作者：高孟潭中国地震局地球物理研究所

从地震基本情况、地震所造成的灾害、地震的应急响应以及地震应对所带来的教训和启示四个方面详细阐述了2024年1月1日日本海沿岸能登半岛7.6级地震相关情况,通过对日本地震的分析,针对新时期地震应急工作新问题、新难点,为我国的地震应... 详细信息

从地震基本情况、地震所造成的灾害、地震的应急响应以及地震应对所带来的教训和启示四个方面详细阐述了2024年1月1日日本海沿岸能登半岛7.6级地震相关情况,通过对日本地震的分析,针对新时期地震应急工作新问题、新难点,为我国的地震应对工作提供借鉴与启示。

关键词：能登半岛地震灾害损失应急响应教训与启示

Discussion on the influence of truncation of ground motion residual distribution on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2011年第3期10卷 379-392页

作者： Wu Jian gao mengtan Chen Kun Huang Bei Institute of geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100081 China Institute of Geology China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100029 China

Recent studies on assessment of a very low annual probability of exceeding （APE） ground motions, 10-4 or less, have highlighted the importance of the upper bound of ground motions when very low probability results are acquired. The truncation level adopted in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA） should be determined by an aleatory uncertainty model （i.e., distribution model） of ground motions and the possible maximum and minimum ground motion values of a specific earthquake. However, at the present time, it is impossible to establish the upper bound model for ground motions based on the source characteristics and/or ground motion propagation. McGuire suggested a truncation level be fixed at a number of = 6, or the distribution of residuals be truncated in such a manner that site intensity cannot be greater than the epicenter intensity. This study aims to find a reasonable and feasible truncation level to be used in PSHA when the physical mechanism is not available to find the extreme ground motion. A mathematical analysis of the influence of the truncation level on PSHA, case studies of sites in different seismotectonic settings, and a distribution analysis of ground motion residuals are conducted in this study. It is concluded that = 4 is the minimum acceptable value for engineering applications for APEs within 0.002 to 10-4, and for low APEs, such as 10-5 and 10-6, the value of should be no less than 5 in most regions of china.

关键词： truncation of ground motions annual probability of exceeding PSHA distribution of ground motion residuals

Review and Prospects of the Global Earthquake Model Project ( GEM)

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Earthquake Research in china 2017年第1期31卷 1-11页

作者： Li Changlong Wu Jian xu Weijin gao mengtan Institute of geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100081 China china Earthquake Risk and Insurance Laboratory Beijing 100081 China

This paper reviewed the main target,functions,tool( Open Quake software) and research achievements of the Global Earthquake Model( GEM) Foundation,and made a simple prospect on the development and application of projects of GEM in the future. Learning from GEM and Open Quake is helpful to improve the seismic hazard model of china and enhance the scientificity of the seismic hazard assessment for metropolitans and major engineering facilities near major seismogenic structures.

关键词： Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) Seismic risk assessment OpenQuake virtual machine

A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2016年第2期90卷 590-603页

作者： LIU Jiamei gao mengtan WU Shuren WANG Tao WU Jian Institute of Geomechanics Chinese Academy of Geological SciencesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Neotectonic Movement&Geohazards Ministry of Land and ResourcesBeijing 100081China Institute of geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquakeinduced landslides and land planning.

关键词： earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment Newmark displacement model Monte Carlo