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Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第12期33卷 1351-1360页

作者： Feng XUE fangxing fan International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Nifia years with a similar sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the westem Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.

关键词： western Pacific subtropical high late summer tropical circulation high latitude circulation warm pool convection

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Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during El Nino Developing Summer in Comparison with Decaying Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第3期35卷 360-367页

作者： Feng XUE Xiao DONG fangxing fan International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The anomalous behavior of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） in E1 Nifio developing summer is studied based on the composite results of eight major E1 Nifio events during 1979-2013. It is shown that the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards with weak intensity during the developing summer. The anomaly exhibits an intraseasonal variation with a weaker anomaly in June and July and a stronger anomaly in August, indicating that different underlying physical mechanisms may be responsible for the anomalous WPSH during early and late summer periods. In June and July, owing to the cold advection anomaly characterized as a weak northerly anomaly from high latitudes, geopotential height in East Asia is reduced and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards slightly. By contrast, enhanced convection over the warm pool in August makes the atmosphere more sensitive to E1 Nifio forcing. Consequently, a cyclonic anomaly in the western Pacific is induced, which is consistent with the seasonal march of atmospheric circulation from July to August. Accordingly, geopotential height in the western Pacific is reduced significantly, and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards remarkably in August. Different from the developing summer, geopotential height in the decaying summer over East Asia and the western Pacific tends to enhance and extend northwards from June to August consistently, reaching the maximum anomaly in August. Therefore, the seasonal march plays an important role in the WPSH anomaly for both the developing and decaying summer.

关键词： western Pacific subtropical high El Nifio developing summer decaying summer seasonal march

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Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第1期38卷 12-28页

作者： fangxing fan Renping LIN Xianghui fanG Feng XUE Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Based on observational and reanalysis data,the relationships between the eastern Pacific(EP)and central Pacific(CP)types of El Niño−Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)are *** roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late *** the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically,the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late *** drought-producing El Niño warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date ***,compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent,leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these ***,anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Niño and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Niño,may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods,*** Niño events with the same“flavor”may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies,while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Niño,implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.

关键词： South Asian summer monsoon ENSO moisture flux convergence−divergence El Niño developing summer multidecadal modulation

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG fangxing fan Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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西太平洋暖池对流三类显著月际变化及其成因

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气候与环境研究 2020年第2期25卷 113-124页

作者：薛峰范方兴苏同华中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029 福建省气象科学研究所福州350001

基于1979~2018年观测的向外长波辐射(outgoing longwave radiation,OLR)资料和其他多种再分析资料,发现西太平洋暖池对流存在3类显著的月际变化。第一类为OLR在6月和8月为负异常而7月为正异常;第二类与第一类完全相反;第三类为OLR在6~7... 详细信息

基于1979~2018年观测的向外长波辐射(outgoing longwave radiation,OLR)资料和其他多种再分析资料,发现西太平洋暖池对流存在3类显著的月际变化。第一类为OLR在6月和8月为负异常而7月为正异常;第二类与第一类完全相反;第三类为OLR在6~7月为正异常,8月为负异常。3类月际变化与ENSO循环的背景有关,前两类发生在较弱的La Nina年和El Nino发展年,与春季暖池海温异常有关。当前一个月海温偏高时,后一个月对流偏强,造成局地海温降低,偏低的海温又反过来抑制了后一个月的对流发展,因此暖池地区局地海气相互作用在这两类月际变化中起到关键作用。与前两类不同的是,第三类月际变化发生在El Nino衰减年,与春季热带印度洋海温偏高有关。热带印度洋海温偏高造成印度附近对流在6~7月间增强,通过东传Kelvin波抑制了暖池对流发展。同时,印度附近对流偏强造成8月印度洋海温降低和对流减弱,对暖池对流的影响因而减弱。另一方面,6~7月暖池对流偏弱造成8月暖池海温升高,结果造成暖池对流增强。因此,第三类月际变化受到热带印度洋强迫以及暖池地区局地海气相互作用的共同影响。

关键词：暖池对流月际变化局地海气相互作用热带印度洋 ENSO

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西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的成因及其预测意义

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气候与环境研究 2021年第3期26卷 239-249页

作者：薛峰董啸范方兴中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029

基于1979~2018年观测向外长波辐射资料和其他多种再分析资料,研究了西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的原因。合成分析结果表明,由于La Niña影响造成春季暖池海温偏高,为6月暖池对流增强提供了热力基础,而大气内部扰动特别是热带西风增强能从动... 详细信息

基于1979~2018年观测向外长波辐射资料和其他多种再分析资料,研究了西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的原因。合成分析结果表明,由于La Niña影响造成春季暖池海温偏高,为6月暖池对流增强提供了热力基础,而大气内部扰动特别是热带西风增强能从动力上影响到6月对流的发展。此外,6月对流增强通过局地海气相互作用持续影响到7~8月的对流变化,导致暖池对流形成显著的季节内振荡,因此6月对流增强对其后月份对流异常变化有重要的预测意义。1984年6月的个例分析表明,热带西风增强能导致暖池对流发展,二者存在明确的超前滞后关系。与此相反,虽然1989年是一个强La Niña年,春季暖池海温也偏高,但由于6月热带西风偏弱,暖池对流难以发展,夏季对流的季节内振荡也不显著。因此,6月暖池对流增强受到前期海温偏高和大气扰动的共同作用。另一方面,暖池对流偏强与偏弱并非一种完全反对称关系,暖池对流偏弱还受到其他因子的影响。

关键词：暖池对流 La Niña 暖池海温大气扰动季节内振荡

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House dust mite allergens and nitrated products: Identification and risk assessment in indoor dust

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第2期124卷 198-204页

作者： fan Xu Jingyi Tian fangxing Yang Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health Ministry of EducationCollege of Natural Resources and Environmental ScienceZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China

Air pollutants can potentially lead to nitration of allergic proteins,thus promoting sensitization of these ***,little is currently known about the nitration status of house dust mite(HDM)*** identified the occurrence of nitrated products of two major HDM allergens Der f 1 and Der p 1 in dust samples collected from college dormitories in eastern China and assessed their associated health *** results showed that both non-nitrated and nitrated forms of the two allergens were detected in the dust in the range of non-detected(ND)-10.6,1.44-15.4,ND-22.4,ND-7.28μg/g for non-nitrated Der f 1,nitrated Der f 1,non-nitrated Der p 1 and nitrated Der p 1,*** median rates of nitration were determined as 74.0%for Der f 1 and 20.4% for Der p 1 at consideration of one nitration *** analysis reveals that the levels of HDM allergens and their nitrated products were found to be generally higher during winter,in dormitories of lower altitude and with female ***,the calculated risk indexes were at considerably high *** findings suggest that nitrated HDM allergens have already accumulated in the environment at such significant levels and their associated health risk calls for our immediate attention.

关键词： Allergen Air pollution Health risk House dust mite(HDM) Nitration

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Analytical Modeling of Disaster-induced Load Loss for Preventive Allocation of Mobile Power Sources in Urban Power Networks

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Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2024年第4期12卷 1063-1073页

作者： Zhuorong Wang Qingxin Shi Ke fan Haiteng Han Wenxia Liu fangxing Li School of Electrical&Electronics Engineering North China Electric Power UniversityBeijing 102206China College of Energy and Electrical Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 211100China The University of Tennessee Knoxville TN 37996USA

Continuous power supply of urban power networks(UPNs)is quite essential for the public security of a city because the UPN acts as the basis for other infrastructure *** recent years,UPN is threatened by extreme weather *** accurate modeling of load loss risk under extreme weather is quite essential for the preventive action of ***-sidering the forecast intensity of a typhoon disaster,this paper proposes analytical modeling of disaster-induced load loss for preventive allocation of mobile power sources(MPSs)in ***,based on the topological structure and fragility model of overhead lines and substations,we establish an analytical load loss model of multi-voltage-level UPN to quantify the spatial dis-tribution of disaster-induced load loss at the substation ***,according to the projected load loss distribution,a preventive allocation method of MPS is proposed,which makes the best use of MPS and dispatches the limited power supply to most vulnerable areas in the ***,the proposed meth-od is validated by the case study of a practical UPN in China.

关键词： Load loss fragility model pre-disaster allocation mobile power source urban power network

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2022年汛期气候趋势预测与展望

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气候与环境研究 2022年第4期27卷 547-558页

作者：彭京备郑飞范方兴陈红郎咸梅詹艳玲林朝晖张庆云林壬萍李超凡马洁华田宝强包庆穆松宁宗海锋王磊段晚锁周天军中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029

中国是自然灾害频发的国家,气象灾害造成的损失占自然灾害造成损失的70%。2020年夏季出现超长梅雨期,长江和淮河发生洪水;2021年夏季,华北雨季开始早,结束晚,期间发生了“21·7”河南地区特大暴雨事件。这些气象灾害都对人民生命财产造... 详细信息

中国是自然灾害频发的国家,气象灾害造成的损失占自然灾害造成损失的70%。2020年夏季出现超长梅雨期,长江和淮河发生洪水;2021年夏季,华北雨季开始早,结束晚,期间发生了“21·7”河南地区特大暴雨事件。这些气象灾害都对人民生命财产造成严重损失。因此,有必要提前对气候异常进行预测,以提高国家的防灾减灾能力。2022年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)的全国汛期气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各个数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4~6个月全球短期气候仍处在La Niña事件恢复到ENSO正常状态的背景下,预计2022年汛期(6~8月),东北东部和中部、华北大部分地区、黄河中下游、东南沿海、西北地区中部、西藏大部分地区、西南地区东部和云南大部分地区降水正常略偏多,其中环渤海湾地区降水偏多2~5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江下游地区和新疆北部降水偏少2~5成。预计今年登陆台风数正常略偏多。由于未来ENSO的趋势演变具有一定的不确定性以及夏季降水受到中高纬大气环流季节内变化的影响,因此,此次汛期预测结果具有一定的不确定性。我们将根据2022年春末、夏初大气环流和海洋等因子的实际演变趋势,做进一步补充订正预测。

关键词：汛期气候预测 El Niño—南方涛动东亚夏季风夏季降水异常登陆台风

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2023年汛期气候趋势预测与展望

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气候与环境研究 2023年第4期28卷 450-460页

作者：范方兴郑飞彭京备陈红郎咸梅詹艳玲马洁华李超凡包庆胡帅董啸田宝强王磊穆松宁宗海锋段晚锁林朝晖张庆云周天军中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029

2023年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4~6个月热带中东太平洋从持续3年的La Niña事件转为异常偏暖状态的背景下,预计2023年汛期,东北的北部和... 详细信息

2023年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4~6个月热带中东太平洋从持续3年的La Niña事件转为异常偏暖状态的背景下,预计2023年汛期,东北的北部和东部、华北大部分地区、黄河中下游、黄淮流域、东南沿海、西北地区中部、新疆和西藏的西部、西南地区中部降水正常略偏多,其中东北的北部和东部以及黄淮流域降水偏多2~5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江中下游地区、河套北部至内蒙古中东部、新疆北部降水偏少2~5成,可能发生阶段性高温热浪。预计今年夏季登陆台风数量接近正常。由于未来ENSO的演变趋势、西太平洋暖池对流的异常变化以及中高纬度环流异常的季节内变化等诸多因素都具有不确定性,因此此次汛期降水预测结果也存在一定的不确定性。将根据2023年春末、夏初大气环流和海洋等因子的实际演变趋势,做进一步补充订正预测。

关键词：汛期气候预测 El Niño-南方涛动东亚夏季风中高纬度环流暖池对流夏季降水异常

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