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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, lin meijing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3.1 {2.-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, {12. 10004., china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 15003., china nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five {3.y predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-{4.ear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model ma{3.s a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2.3.& WANG Huijun2.1. {3.-{2. international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. Department of {13. Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004., china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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The influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming on the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第3期52卷 323-332页

作者： LI Shuanglin nansen-{2. {3. {4. Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

During the past decades, concurrent with global warming, most of global oceans, particularly the tropical Indian Ocean, have become warmer. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) exhibits a deepening trend. Although previous modeling studies reveal that radiative cooling effect of ozone depletion plays a dominant role in causing the deepening of SPV, the simulated ozone-depletion-induced SPV deepening is stronger than the observed. This suggests that there must be other factors canceling a fraction of the influence of the ozone depletion. Whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming (IOW) is such a factor is unclear. This issue is addressed by conducting ensemble {3. general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. And one idealized IOW with the amplitude as the observed is prescribed to force four AGCMs. The results show that the IOW tends to warm the southern polar stratosphere, and thus wea{4.ns SPV in austral spring to summer. Hence, it offsets a fraction of the effect of the ozone depletion. This implies that global warming will favor ozone recovery, since a warmer southern polar stratosphere is un-beneficial for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which is a {4.y factor to ozone depletion chemical reactions.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean warming Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments planetary wave

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Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3.1 National Climate center,china Meteorological Administration,{2. 100081,china 2.nansen-zhu international research center,institute of atmospheric {13.,{12. academy of sciences,{2. 10002.,china 3.National Meteorological center,china Meteorological Administration,{2. 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

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Improved ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM using regressive correction method

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1258-1265页

作者： FU WeiWei1 & ZHOU GuangQing2.1 nansen-zhu {2. {4. center (NZC), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences (CAS), beijing 10002., china 2.State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {13. {12. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of At-mospheric physics, CAS, beijing 10002., china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing 100029 China 2. State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {2. {4. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Beijing 100029 China

A regressive correction method is presented with the primary goal of improving ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM. It focuses on the correction of ocean-atmosphere exchanged fluxes. On the basis of numerical experiments and analysis, the method can be described as follows: first, driving the ocean model with heat and momentum flux computed from a long-term observation data set; the pro-duced SST is then applied to force the AGCM as its boundary condition; after that the AGCM’s simula-tion and the corresponding observation can be correlated by a linear regressive formula. Thus the re-gressive correction coefficients for the simulation with spatial and temporal variation could be obtained by linear fitting. Finally the coefficients are applied to redressing the variables used for the calculation of the exchanged air-sea flux in the coupled model when it starts integration. This method together with the anomaly coupling method is tested in a regional coupled model, which is composed of a global grid-point {3. general circulation model and a high-resolution tropical Pacific Ocean model. The comparison of the results shows that it is superior to the anomaly coupling both in reducing the coupled model ‘climate drift’ and in improving the ENSO simulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

关键词： anomaly coupling regressive correction method regional coupled model ENSO simulation

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Modeling the impact of Australian Plate drift on Southern Hemisphere climate and environment

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chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第14期50卷 1495-1502页

作者： ZHOU Botao1,5, ZHAO Ping2. JIAN Zhimin3.& HE Jinhai4.1. nansen-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. institute of Climate and Environment, chinese {13. of Meteoro- logical {12., beijing 100081, china 3. Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 2.0092. china 4. Department of atmospheric {12., Nanjing institute of Meteorol- ogy, Nanjing 2.004., china 5. Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10003., china nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China institute of Climate and Environment Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji University Shanghai 200092 China Department of atmospheric sciences Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044 China

Using a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model with the present-day and 14.MaB.P. oceanic topogra- phy respectively, two experiments are implemented to inves- tigate the effect of different locations of Australian Plate on the atmospheric circulation in middle-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that when Austra- lian Plate lay south at 14.MaB.P., both anticyclone circula- tions in the subtropical oceans and cyclone circulation around 60°-70°S are strengthened. Subtropical highs and circumpolar low pressure appear stronger, which results in much stronger Antarctic Oscillation and shorter period of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) at 14.MaB.P. The rainfall and the surface air temperature also change correspondingly. The precipitation decreases around 4.°S and increases around 60°-70°S, and the surface air temperature rises in high latitudes of the South Pacific and descends over the Weddell Sea and its north side. Besides, due to the changes of the temperatures and winds, Antarctic sea ice coverage also changes with its increasing in the Ross Sea and its west re- gions and decreasing in the Weddell Sea.

关键词：半球气候地球环球澳大利亚漂流物海洋地形学

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Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4.& TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 Climate Change research center,chinese academy of {4.,beijing 10002.,china 2 nansen-zhu international research Centre,institute of atmospheric {14.,chinese academy of {4.,beijing 10002.,china 3 key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia,chinese academy of {4.,beijing 10002.,china 4.State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of {4.,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 10004.,china 1. Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. nansen-zhu {2. {4. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 3. key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 4. State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi’an 710075 China 5. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4. developed at the National center for atmospheric {2. to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of mode{3.g results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& GAO YuZhong3.1 nansen-zhu {2. research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.7} Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 15003., china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China 3. Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin 150030 China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over china

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第19期48卷 2121-2125页

作者： LANG Xianmei, WANG Huijun & JIANG Dabang nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. and LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china nansen zhu {2. {3. {4. and LASG institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

Using the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the{2., 3.-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter climate is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1969—1998. Winter climate predictability over{3. is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter climate over{3. and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.

关键词：冬季气候中国气候预报数字模型表面温度

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Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2.& WANG HuiJun1 1 nansen-zhu {2. {4. center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10003., china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {3. {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2.00 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2.00 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of china, especially North china, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest china. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2.00, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over china, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over china on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2.3.decades climate changes over china, especially North china's drying and northwest china's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3.8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962.and 1976―1991, but low during 1963.1975 and 1992.2.00.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

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