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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, lin meijing1,{2. {3. {4. nansen-Zhu international Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, {12. 10004., china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 15003., china nansen-Zhu international Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five {3.y predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-{4.ear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model ma{3.s a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& gao {2. {3.-Zhu {4. Research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.8} Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 15003., china 1. nansen-Zhu international Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China 3. Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin 150030 China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research:The ARCPATH Project

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1559-1568页

作者： Astrid E.J.OGILVIE Leslie A.KING Noel keENLYSIDE François COUNILLON Brynhildur DAVIÐSDÓTTIR Níels EINARSSON Sergey GULEV ke {2. Torben KOENIGK James R.MCGOODWIN Marianne H.RASMUSSON Shuting YANG institute of Arctic and Alpine Research(INSTAAR) University of ColoradoBoulder CO 80303USA Stefansson Arctic institute AkureyriÍS-600Iceland Royal Roads University BC V9B 5Y2Canada University of Bergen Bergen N-5007Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Bergen N-5007Norway University of Iceland Reykjavík 102Iceland Shirshov institute of Oceanology Moscow 117218Russia Moscow State University Moscow 11991Russia chinese academy of {2. Beijing 100045China Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological institute SE-60176 NorrköpingSweden Danish Meteorological institute CopenhagenØ2100Denmark Obukhov institute of atmospheric physics RAS119017MoscowRussia

This paper celebrates Professor Yongqi gao's significant achievement in the field of interdisciplinary studies within the context of his final research project Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient Sustainable Societies-ARCPATH(https://***/en/projects/finished-projects/arcpath). The disciplines represented in the project are related to climatology, anthropology, marine biology, economics, and the broad spectrum of social-ecological studies. Team members were drawn from the Nordic countries, Russia,{3., the United States, and Canada. The project was transdisciplinary as well as interdisciplinary as it included collaboration with local knowledge holders. ARCPATH made significant contributions to Arctic research through an improved understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate variability in the Arctic. In tandem with this research, a combination of historical investigations and social, economic, and marine biological fieldwork was carried out for the project study areas of Iceland, Greenland, Norway, and the surrounding seas, with a focus on the joint use of ocean and sea-ice data as well as social-ecological drivers. ARCPATH was able to provide an improved framework for predicting the near-term variation of Arctic climate on spatial scales relevant to society, as well as evaluating possible related changes in socioeconomic realms. In summary, through the integration of information from several different disciplines and research approaches, ARCPATH served to create new and valuable knowledge on crucial issues, thus providing new pathways to action for Arctic communities.

关键词： Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research:The ARCPATH Project

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