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Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 15-23页

作者： Mark Kimathi Samuel Mwalili Viona Ojiambo duncan kioi gathungu Department of Mathematics and Statistics Machakos UniversityMachakosKenya Center for Health Analytics and Modeling Strathmore UniversityNairobiKenya School of Mathematical Sciences Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobiKenya

Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus *** reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic *** age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and *** between different ages are incorporated via contact *** results show that 45%reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5e13%reduction of infections severity and deaths,while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8e22.7%*** peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation,which happened a month after mitigations were *** numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic *** numbers of cases are reported in the 15e29 years and 30e59 years age *** mitigation periods,considered in the study,resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases,attack rates,hospital and ICU bed demands,as well as deaths,with the 190-days period giving higher reductions.

关键词： Coronavirus Non-pharmaceutical intervention Age structured Contact matrix Mathematical model

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Multigrid Solution of an Elliptic Fredholm Partial Integro-Differential Equation with a Hilbert-Schmidt Integral Operator

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Applied Mathematics 2017年第7期8卷 967-986页

作者： duncan kioi gathungu Alfio Borzì Institut für Mathematik Universit&auml t Würzburg Würzburg Germany

An efficient multigrid finite-differences scheme for solving elliptic Fredholm partial integro-differential equations (PIDE) is discussed. This scheme combines a second-order accurate finite difference discretization of the PIDE problem with a multigrid scheme that includes a fast multilevel integration of the Fredholm operator allowing the fast solution of the PIDE problem. Theoretical estimates of second-order accuracy and results of local Fourier analysis of convergence of the proposed multigrid scheme are presented. Results of numerical experiments validate these estimates and demonstrate optimal computational complexity of the proposed framework.

关键词： Elliptic Problems Fredholm Operator Multigrid Schemes Finite Differences Numerical Analysis

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