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Deep learning projects future warming-induced vegetation growth changes under SSP scenarios

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第2期13卷 251-257页

作者： Zhi-Ting chen Hong-Yan LIU Chong-Yang XU Xiu-chen WU Bo-Yi LIANG Jing CAO deliang chen College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Faculty of Geographical Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Climate warming has been projected to enhance vegetation growth more strongly in higher latitudes than in lower latitudes,but different projections show distinct regional *** employing big data analysis(deep learning),we established gridded,global-scale,climate-driven vegetation growth models to project future changes in vegetation growth under SSP *** projected no substantial trends of vegetation growth change under the sustainable development scenario(SSP1-1.9)by the end of the 21st ***,the increase of vegetation growth driven by climate warming shows distinct regional variability under the scenario representing high carbon emissions and severe warming(SSP5-8.5),especially in Northeast Asia where growth could increase by(6.00%±4.21%).This may be attributed to the high temperature sensitivities of the deciduous needleleaf forests and permanent wetlands in these *** the temperature sensitivity that is defined as permutation importance in deep learning is greater than 0.05,the increase in vegetation growth will be more *** addition,an extreme temperature increase across grasslands,as well as changing land-use management in northern China may also influence the vegetation growth in the *** results suggest that the sustainable development scenario can maintain stable vegetation growth,and it may be a reliable way to mitigate global warming due to potential climate feedbacks driven by vegetation changes in boreal *** needleleaf forests will be a centre of greening in the future,and it should become the focus of future vegetation dynamics modelling studies and projections.

关键词： Vegetation growth Climate change Deep learning Climate sensitivity Future projection

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Strong link between large tropical volcanic eruptions and severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas revealed by tree-ring records

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Science Bulletin 2019年第14期64卷 1018-1023页

作者： Eryuan Liang Binod Dawadi Neil Pederson Shilong Piao Haifeng Zhu Shalik Ram Sigdel deliang chen Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Tribhuvan University Kathmandu Nepal Harvard Forest Harvard University Petersham MA 01366 USA College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg 40530 Sweden

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas. In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Ni?a events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.

关键词： Tree ring Drought Tropical volcanic eruptions Central Himalayas

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Synoptic Climate Settings and Moisture Supply for the Extreme Heavy Snowfall in Northern China during 6–8 November 2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第1期37卷 75-89页

作者： Kailun GAO Ji WANG deliang chen Wenting HU Yingjuan ZHANG Anmin DUAN Xiaoxiao ZHANG Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing 100089China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China

A record-breaking extreme heavy snowfall(EHS)event hit northern China during 6–8 November 2021,with two maximum snowfall centers in North China(NC)and Northeast China(NEC),which inflicted severe socioeconomic *** paper compares the differences in the synoptic processes and moisture supply associated with the EHS event in NC and NEC,as well as the atmospheric circulation anomalies before the event,to provide a reference for better prediction and forecasting of EHS in northern *** analyses show that a positively tilted,inverted 500-hPa trough channeled cold-air outbreaks into NC,while dynamic updrafts along the front below the trough promoted moisture convergence over this *** NEC,the dynamic updraft south of the frontogenesis region firstly triggered a low-level Yellow–Bohai Sea cyclone,which then converged with the 500-hPa trough to ultimately form an NEC cold *** of the vorticity tendency indicates that absolute vorticity advection was a better indicator than absolute vorticity divergence for the movement of the trough/ridge at the synoptic ***,NOAA’s HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory)model results reveal that the moisture for the EHS over NC mainly originated from the mid-to-low levels over the Asian–African region and the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes,accounting for 32%and 31%,*** contrast,the source of water vapor for the EHS over NEC was mainly the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes and East Asia,with contributions of 38%and 28%,*** findings of this study shed some fresh light on the distinctive contributions of different moisture sources to local *** analyses of the atmospheric circulation anomalies in October reveal that a phase shift in the Arctic Oscillation related to the weakening of the polar vortex could have served as a useful indicator for the cold-air outbreaks in this EHS event.

关键词： extreme heavy snowfall synoptic systems moisture source(sink) atmospheric circulation anomaly Arctic Oscillation

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太平洋十年涛动对全球地表气温变化的影响足迹

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Science Bulletin 2024年第4期69卷 445-448页

作者：梁莉莉 Alan D.Ziegler 陈德亮 Philippe Ciais 李肇新梁时婧王大山徐荣嵘曾振中 School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China SUSTech Energy Institute for Carbon Neutrality Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Faculty of Fisheries Technology and Aquatic Resources Mae Jo UniversityChiang Mai 50000Thailand Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement UniversitéParis-SaclayGif-sur-Yvette 91191France Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Centre national de la recherche scientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéÉcole Normale SupérieureÉcole PolytechniqueParis 75000France Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China

Sea surface temperature modes have been found to modulate anthropogenic global warming rates on annual and decadal timescales,sometimes leading to periods of“slowdown”despite increasing greenhouse gas emissions^([1]).

关键词：太平洋十年涛动地表气温 greenhouse

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气候变化的灾害效应与科学挑战

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科学通报 2024年第2期69卷 286-300页

作者：王岩王昊崔鹏陈德亮唐金波欧廷海郝建盛王姣张国涛雷雨伍纯昊中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室成都610299 Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

自然灾害是地球系统各圈层相互作用最剧烈的一种表现形式,对人类社会有着深远的影响.气候变化导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量等条件都有所影响,致使自然灾害出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加;自然灾害间的... 详细信息

自然灾害是地球系统各圈层相互作用最剧烈的一种表现形式,对人类社会有着深远的影响.气候变化导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量等条件都有所影响,致使自然灾害出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加;自然灾害间的相互作用变强,促使复合灾害和级联灾害风险均有明显上升.本文归纳总结了自然灾害在强度、频率、持续时间、触发时间与位置、规模或影响范围等方面的变化规律,阐述其对气候变化的响应机制,提出气候变化灾害风险的五大科学挑战,包括:气候变化驱动的圈层相互作用和内外动力耦合致灾机制、跨时空尺度灾害发育规律、极端事件信息感知与数据驱动的风险判识、灾害动力学与风险演化规律、灾害风险管理与韧性社会构建.积极主动地应对这些挑战有助于深化对地球系统的科学理解,适应全球变化,减小灾害风险.

关键词：气候变化自然灾害灾害效应响应机制科学挑战

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Effective regulation of electronic structures and luminescence properties of LiGd_(9)(SiO_(4))6-x(GeO_(4))xO_(2):Dy^(3+)phosphors by tetrahedral substitution

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Journal of Rare Earths 2023年第5期41卷 673-681,I0002页

作者： Yuanyuan Zhang Lefu Mei Haikun Liu Sergey M.Aksenov Dina V.Deyneko deliang chen School of Materials Sciences and Technology Dongguan University of TechnologyDongguan 523808China School of Materials Science and Engineering Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an 710049China Beijing Key Laboratory of Materials Utilization of Nonmetallic Minerals and Solid Wastes National Laboratory of Mineral MaterialsSchool of Materials Sciences and TechnologyChina University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China Department of Energy and Chemical Engineering Dongguan University of TechnologyDongguan 523808China Laboratory of Arctic Mineralogy and Material Sciences Kola Science CentreRussian Academy of Sciences14 Fersman StrApatity184209Russia Laboratory of Nature-Inspired Technologies and Environmental Safety of the Arctic Kola Science CentreRussian Academy of SciencesApatity18420 Russia Department of Chemistry Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityMoscow119991Russia School of Materials Science and Engineering Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China

A series of Dy^(3+)-activated phosphors with the general formula LiGd_(9)(SiO_(4))6-x(GeO_(4))xO_(2):Dy^(3+)(0≤x≤3)characterized by an apatite-type structure were successfully synthesized via a simple solid-state technique involving a partial substitution of[SiO_(4)]^(4-)with[GeO_(4)]^(4-)*** effects of homovalent[GeO_(4)]^(4-)-[SiO_(4)]^(4-)substitution on the crystal structure,electronic structure,luminescence properties and thermal performance of LiGd_(9)(SiO_(4))6-x(GeO_(4))xO_(2):Dy^(3+)phosphors were studied in *** phases and microstructure were performed by using X-ray diffraction(XRD)Rietveld refinement method and scanning electron microscopy(SEM)*** substitution of smaller[SiO_(4)]^(4-)ions by larger[GeO_(4)]^(4-)ones makes their unit cell parameters increase gradually,and their band gaps *** photoluminescence spectra of LiGd_(9)(SiO_(4))6-x(GeO_(4))xO_(2):Dy^(3+)(0≤x≤3)exhibit obvious emission peaks located at 477,573 and 675 nm within a visible wavelength region,resulting in an excellent white ***,the I573nm/I477nm values of LiGd_(9)(SiO_(4))6-x(GeO_(4))xO_(2):Dy^(3+)(0≤x≤3)become larger with the partial substitution of[SiO_(4)]^(4-)by[GeO_(4)]^(4-),and their CIE chromaticity coordinates exhibit a yellow shift.

关键词： Apatite Structure substitution Electronic structure White emitting Rare earths

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Indication of paleoecological evidence on the evolution of alpine vegetation productivity and soil erosion in central China since the mid-Holocene

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第10期64卷 1774-1783页

作者： Ying chenG Hongyan LIU Hongya WANG deliang chen Philippe CIAIS Yao LUO Xiuchen WU &Yi YIN School of Geography and Tourism Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an 710119China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgP.O.Box 460S-40530 GothenburgSweden Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement(LSCE) CEA CNRS UVSQGif Sur Yvette 91191France State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA 91125USA

Although alpine ecosystems have been commonly recognized as sensitive to recent climate change,few studies have examined its impact on the long-term productivity of vegetation and soil *** paleoecological records,these two aspects were examined in the alpine zone of the Taibai Mountains(elevation,3767 m)in monsoon-dominated East Asia since the middle *** for the productivity of vegetation and severity of soil erosion from high-resolution alpine lacustrine records show that the productivity and soil erosion were closely related to mean annual temperature and summer precipitation from the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),***,when the mean annual temperature was low and precipitation was abundant,during 5800–4000 calendar years before the present(*** BP),the alpine ecosystem was characterized by low vegetation productivity and severe soil ***,the productivity increased and soil erosion decreased from 4000 *** BP *** results highlight the role of paleoecological evidence in studying ecosystem services on longer time scales,which is significant in making policies for sustainable development under climate change in regions for which such long-term monitoring data are not available.

关键词： Pollen Vegetation dynamics Alpine lake sediments Erosion intensity Paleoecological indicators

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Improved Land Use and Leaf Area Index Enhances WRF-3DVAR Satellite Radiance Assimilation： A Case Study Focusing on Rainfall Simulation in the Shule River Basin during July 2013

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第6期35卷 628-644页

作者： Junhua YANG Zhenming JI deliang chen Shichang KANG Congshen FU Keqin DUAN Miaogen SHEN State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Lanzhou 730000 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg 40530 Sweden Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven Connecticut 06511 USA College of Tourism and Environment Shaanxi Normal University Xi'an 710000 China Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China

The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from low-level（surface-sensitive）channels, are rejected for use because of the difficulty in realistically modeling land surface emissivity and energy ***, we used an improved land use and leaf area index（LAI） dataset in the WRF-3 DVAR assimilation system to explore the benefit of using improved quality of land surface information to improve rainfall simulation for the Shule River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study. The results for July 2013 show that, for low-level channels（e.g., channel 3）,the underestimation of brightness temperature in the original simulation was largely removed by more realistic land surface information. In addition, more satellite data could be utilized in the assimilation because the realistic land use and LAI data allowed more satellite radiance data to pass the deviation test and get used by the assimilation, which resulted in improved initial driving fields and better simulation in terms of temperature, relative humidity, vertical convection, and cumulative precipitation.

关键词： WRF-3DVAR land use leaf area index radiance assimilation rainfall simulation

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Saltwater intrusion into groundwater systems in the Mekong Delta and links to global change

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 342-352页

作者： XIAO Han TANG Yin LI Haiming ZHANG Lu NGO-DUC Thanh deliang chen TANG Qiuhong College of Marine and Environmental Sciences Tianjin University of Science&TechnologyTianjin300457China Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China CSIRO Land and Water Canberra2601Australia Department of Space and Applications University of Science and Technology of HanoiVietnam Academy of Science and TechnologyHanoi10000Viet Nam Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg41296Sweden University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

In recent decades,changes in temperature,wind,and rainfall patterns of Southeast Asia induced by climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau result in many environmental changes that have serious impacts on the lower reach of the Mekong River basin,a region already battling severe water-related environmental problems such as pollution,saltwater intrusion,and intensified *** the densely populated Mekong Delta located at the mouth of the Mekong River basin in southern Vietnam,the hydrogeological systems have been transformed from an almost undisturbed to a human-impacted state and saltwater intrusion into surface water and groundwater systems has grown to be a detrimental issue recently,seriously threatening freshwater supply and degrading the *** this article,the impacts of human activities and climate change(e.g.,groundwater over-exploitation,relative sea-level rise,storm surge,changing precipitation and temperature regimes,uncontrolled drainage canals,operation of hydropower dams,and rapid development of aquaculture)on saltwater intrusion into groundwater systems in the Mekong Delta are briefly *** on current status of research findings regarding saltwater intrusion and the subsequent groundwater quality degradation under the impacts of human activities and climate change,major knowledge gaps and challenges are identified and discussed,including thickness and permeability of the silt and clay aquitard,present-day highly heterogeneous 3D distribution of saline groundwater zones,dynamic variation of saltwater/freshwater transition zone,and the most effective and economical control *** bridge these gaps,future work should:1)apply environmental isotope techniques in combination with borehole tests to gain detailed hydrogeological information regarding spatial variation of permeability and thickness of the silt and clay aquitard;2)intensify regular groundwater monitoring and collect as much groundwater samples from multiple hydro-stra

关键词： Human activity Climate change Saltwater intrusion Groundwater system Mekong delta(southern Vietnam)

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2015年第3期6卷 159-170页

作者： ZHANG Peng deliang chen Hans W.LINDERHOLM ZHANG Qiong Regional Climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Stockholm University

Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into tile variability of past annual mean tem- perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901-2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4--16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales （2--4 years） shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales （〉32 years） has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales （2-4 years） and lower variance at the long timescales （〉1024 years） than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at

关键词： Annual temperature Summer temperature Central Sweden Climate model simulation Scale-dependent similarity

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