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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1023-1067页

作者： dazhi yang Xiang’ao XIA Martin János MAYER School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001HeilongjiangChina Key Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Energy Engineering Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringBudapest University of Technology and EconomicsMűegyetem rkp.3Budapest H-1111Hungary

Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality,the study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly *** numerous trending topics,energy meteorology has been attracting the most attention *** essential skill of solar energy meteorologists is solar power curve modeling,which seeks to map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables to solar power,by statistical and/or physical *** this regard,this tutorial review aims to deliver a complete overview of those fundamental scientific and engineering principles pertaining to the solar power *** power curves can be modeled in two primary ways,one of regression and the other of model *** classes of modeling approaches,alongside their hybridization and probabilistic extensions,which allow accuracy improvement and uncertainty quantification,are scrutinized and contrasted thoroughly in this review.

关键词： review energy meteorology solar power curve model chain solar power prediction

A Deep-Learning and Transfer-Learning Hybrid Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm for FY4-AGRI:Development and Verification over Asia

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Engineering 2024年第7期38卷 164-174页

作者： Disong Fu Hongrong Shi Christian AGueymard dazhi yang Yu Zheng Huizheng Che Xuehua Fan Xinlei Han Lin Gao Jianchun Bian Minzheng Duan Xiangao Xia Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 10029China Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Solar Consulting Services ColebrookNH 03576USA School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150006China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather&Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Composition and Environmental MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China h National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)is a mission-critical instrument for the Fengyun series of *** acquires full-disk images every 15 min and views East Asia every 5 min through 14 spectral bands,enabling the detection of highly variable aerosol optical depth(AOD).Quantitative retrieval of AOD has hitherto been challenging,especially over *** this study,an AOD retrieval algorithm is proposed that combines deep learning and transfer *** algorithm uses core concepts from both the Dark Target(DT)and Deep Blue(DB)algorithms to select features for the machinelearning(ML)algorithm,allowing for AOD retrieval at 550 nm over both dark and bright *** algorithm consists of two steps:①A baseline deep neural network(DNN)with skip connections is developed using 10 min Advanced Himawari Imager(AHI)AODs as the target variable,and②sunphotometer AODs from 89 ground-based stations are used to fine-tune the DNN ***-of-station validation shows that the retrieved AOD attains high accuracy,characterized by a coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.70,a mean bias error(MBE)of 0.03,and a percentage of data within the expected error(EE)of 70.7%.A sensitivity study reveals that the top-of-atmosphere reflectance at 650 and 470 nm,as well as the surface reflectance at 650 nm,are the two largest sources of uncertainty impacting the *** a case study of monitoring an extreme aerosol event,the AGRI AOD is found to be able to capture the detailed temporal evolution of the *** work demonstrates the superiority of the transfer-learning technique in satellite AOD retrievals and the applicability of the retrieved AGRI AOD in monitoring extreme pollution events.

关键词： Aerosol optical depth Retrieval algorithm Deep learning Transfer learning Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager

Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1417-1437页

作者： Mengmeng SONG dazhi yang Sebastian LERCH Xiang'ao XIA Gokhan Mert YAGLI Jamie M.BRIGHT Yanbo SHEN Bai LIU Xingli LIU Martin Janos MAYER School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin150001China Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 3569118HeidelbergGermany Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology(KIT)Bluecherstr.1776185KarlsruheGermany Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore(SERIS) National University of Singapore(NUS)Singapore117574Singapore UK Power Networks LondonSE61NPUK China Meteorological Administration Beijing100081China Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Harbin150001China Department of Energy Engineering Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringBudapest University of Technology and EconomicsMűegyetem rkp.3H-1111BudapestHungary

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,*** such,forecast calibration tools have become *** those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive ***,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated *** this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without *** overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive *** empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing *** and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all ***,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

关键词： ensemble weather forecasting forecast calibration non-crossing quantile regression neural network CORP reliability diagram post-processing

骨质疏松风险预测模型的构建:利用IOF骨质疏松一分钟测试

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中国骨质疏松杂志 2024年第4期30卷 488-493页

作者：张坤王敏张光荣易伟宏杨大志深圳大学医学部广东深圳518061 华中科技大学协和深圳医院(南山医院)脊柱外科广东深圳518052 深圳市南山医疗集团后海社康广东深圳518064

目的利用IOF骨质疏松症风险1 min测试,构建临床预测模型来作为骨质疏松的评估工具。方法通过收集在本院骨科骨质疏松专病门诊就诊的470名对象的骨质疏松症风险1 min测试结果和骨质疏松患病数据,利用LASSO回归模型和多因素Logtisic回归... 详细信息

目的利用IOF骨质疏松症风险1 min测试,构建临床预测模型来作为骨质疏松的评估工具。方法通过收集在本院骨科骨质疏松专病门诊就诊的470名对象的骨质疏松症风险1 min测试结果和骨质疏松患病数据,利用LASSO回归模型和多因素Logtisic回归分析患者发生骨质疏松的风险因素,并建立骨质疏松风险预测模型。结果LASSO回归结果显示,父母是否有过骨折或者被诊断为骨质疏松症,父母曾经有人驼背,患者实际年龄超过40岁或BMI≤18.5 kg/m^(2)等9个问题,被定义为发生骨质疏松风险的特征变量。多因素Logtisic回归结果表明,年龄(OR:1.12,95%CI:1.09~1.15)、性别(OR:6.81,95%CI:3.95~12.1)、是否在成年之后因轻摔发生骨折(OR:2.87,95%CI:1.82~4.26)、每天运动量少于30 min(OR:1.59,95%CI:1.29~2.18)与骨质疏松的高风险有关(P<0.05)。利用Logtisic回归构建列线图模型,其预测骨质疏松发生的的ROC曲线下面积为值为0.856。通过校准曲线研究表明,其优势在于列线图模型的理想曲线与偏差校正曲线能够保持较好的一致性。从临床适用性来说,与“全干预”和“不干预”方案相比较,列线图模型的临床净收益率均表现出一定优势。结论利用IOF提供的骨质疏松症风险1 min测试,构建出的风险预测模型有良好的预测效果,可以为临床医生提供参考和帮助。

关键词：骨质疏松骨质疏松症风险1 min测试风险预测模型

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A Concise Overview on Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第8期39卷 1239-1251页

作者： dazhi yang Wenting WANG Xiang'ao XIA School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150006China Key Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO)

China’s recently announced directive on tackling climate change,namely,to reach carbon peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,has led to an unprecedented nationwide response among the academia and *** such a directive,a rapid increase in the grid penetration rate of solar in the near future can be fully *** solar radiation is an atmospheric process,its utilization,as to produce electricity,has hitherto been handled by *** that,it is thought important to bridge the two fields,atmospheric sciences and solar engineering,for the common good of carbon *** thisüberreview,all major aspects pertaining to solar resource assessment and forecasting are discussed in *** the size of the topic at hand,instead of presenting technical details,which would be overly lengthy and repetitive,the overarching goal of this review is to comprehensively compile a catalog of some recent,and some not so recent,review papers,so that the interested readers can explore the details on their own.

关键词： review solar forecasting solar resource assessment

基于分位数映射法的太阳能精细化分布评估及长时预测

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中国石油大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年第4期48卷 198-205页

作者：华科王智超姚遥姜国栋韩磊万杰田地杨大智国网黑龙江省电力有限公司科学研究院黑龙江哈尔滨150030 哈尔滨工业大学能源科学与工程学院黑龙江哈尔滨150006 哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院黑龙江哈尔滨150006

太阳能资源的高效开发和利用对人类减少化石燃料的消费及温室气体的排放具有重要意义,为进一步加强东北地区尤其是哈尔滨市区域太阳能资源的高效开发,精细化分布评估和长时预测必不可少。选取国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的数据... 详细信息

太阳能资源的高效开发和利用对人类减少化石燃料的消费及温室气体的排放具有重要意义,为进一步加强东北地区尤其是哈尔滨市区域太阳能资源的高效开发,精细化分布评估和长时预测必不可少。选取国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的数据集,利用分位数映射法,对研究区域未来30年太阳辐射数据进行降尺度处理,从而获得高分辨率太阳辐射数据;根据预测数据分析太阳辐射强度时空分布规律,评估太阳能资源丰富度及稳定性。结果表明:未来30年太阳总辐射呈缓慢的下降趋势,2020—2029年太阳能资源最丰富;总辐射量和日照时数呈现西多东少的分布,尤其是西南区域太阳能资源最富裕,整个区域都达到太阳能资源很丰富的水平,太阳能资源稳定性高,具有很大的开发潜力。

关键词：太阳能太阳辐射预测分位数映射法哈尔滨地区

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考虑建成环境的酒驾事故时空分布特征

交通科技与经济 2024年第4期26卷 36-44页

作者：于晓桦田雨晗杨大志山东建筑大学交通工程学院济南250101

为深入了解我国酒驾事故的时空分布特征及其与周围建成环境的空间距离阈值,以济南市2022年发生的1034起酒驾事故与13029起非酒驾事故案例为研究对象,结合季节性强度指数与地理集中指数等衡量指标,分析酒驾事故的时空分布特征;利用近邻... 详细信息

为深入了解我国酒驾事故的时空分布特征及其与周围建成环境的空间距离阈值,以济南市2022年发生的1034起酒驾事故与13029起非酒驾事故案例为研究对象,结合季节性强度指数与地理集中指数等衡量指标,分析酒驾事故的时空分布特征;利用近邻分析与基于最大类簇直径改进的K-means聚类算法,探究出周围建成环境与酒驾事故点的空间距离阈值。结果表明:酒驾事故的时间分布季节强度指数为4.128,大于非酒驾事故的3.839,时间分布差异性更大,且高发时段(20:00—02:00)与餐饮服务的高峰营业时间一致。酒驾事故的地理集中指数G为32.713%,大于均匀分布情况下的地理集中指数G,空间集聚程度更高,且与周围建成环境分布具有密切联系。餐饮服务、购物服务、住宿服务与商务住宅的聚类中心点到酒驾事故点的距离阈值分别为798.415 m、694.378 m、658.234 m与739.622 m。

关键词：交通安全酒驾事故近邻分析 K-means聚类算法距离阈值

Application of CoFe_(2)O_(4)-NiO nanoparticle-coated foam-structured material in a high-flux solar thermochemical reactor

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2023年第11期66卷 3276-3286页

作者： ZHANG Hao ZHANG XiaoMi yang dazhi SHUAI Yong GUENE LOUGOU Bachirou PAN QingHui WANG FuQiang School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China School of Energy Science and Engineering Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China School of New Energy Harbin Institute of Technology at WeihaiWeihai 264209China

The splitting of carbon dioxide through the two-step solar thermochemical cycle presents enormous potential,for it holds the dual functionalities of solar fuel production and carbon-based energy ***,the industrialization of this technology is impeded by two critical factors:The absence of fully developed oxygen carriers and advanced reaction devices that deliver exceptional *** order to identify a potentially effective oxygen carrier,50 wt%NiO-modified Co Fe_(2)O_(4)is selected as the active component and characterized by means of thermogravimetry,scanning electron microscopy,and energy dispersive spectroscopy,so as to clarify its oxygen exchange capacity,micromorphology and elemental composition in high-temperature thermochemical ***,nanoparticle-coated foam-structured materials are prepared in combination with Si C ceramic foam for experimental testing in a high-flux solar *** results indicate that a peak CO yield of 1.96 m L min^(-1)g^(-1)can be gained in a 1500–1250 K preliminary test,demonstrating the application potential of the *** contrast to conventional redox materials,the CO_(2)activity of the materials synthesized in this study exhibits an enhancement with rising oxidation *** means that isothermal cycles can potentially achieve higher conversion and fuel yield than non-isothermal cycles,while simultaneously reducing the amount of irreversible heat loss during high-temperature *** the estimated steadystate thermal efficiency of the solar reactor can reach up to 42%,further optimization of the reactor design is necessary to enhance energy conversion efficiency,as it is partially limited by the dimensions of the reaction chamber.

关键词： solar thermochemistry CO_(2)splitting two-step redox cycle iron-base oxygen carrier reactor design

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不确定环境下危险货物公铁联运路径优化研究

兰州交通大学学报 2024年第3期43卷 28-38页

作者：董佳马昌喜齐博刘又萁杨大志包头铁道职业技术学院铁道交通运营管理系内蒙古包头014060 兰州交通大学交通运输学院兰州730070 西交利物浦大学江苏苏州215123 山东建筑大学交通工程学院济南250101

为使得危险货物公铁联运路径优化更贴合实际,其引入随机机会约束理论,再用决策分析法、理论研究法和算例分析法等,把含有随机变量的不确定式子转换为确定等价形式,考虑集装箱限容、时间窗约束和运输风险等因素,以运输总成本最低、总时... 详细信息

为使得危险货物公铁联运路径优化更贴合实际,其引入随机机会约束理论,再用决策分析法、理论研究法和算例分析法等,把含有随机变量的不确定式子转换为确定等价形式,考虑集装箱限容、时间窗约束和运输风险等因素,以运输总成本最低、总时间最短和总风险最小为目标,建立不确定环境下的危险货物多式联运路径优化模型。基于随机模拟算法、神经元网络算法和遗传算法,设计一种改进的混合智能算法验证模型的可行性和有效性。参数变化分析表明:设计的混合智能算法比普通的启发式算法求解效率高;选用大载货量的集装箱对运输企业和风险管理部门均有益;运输途中人口密度或风险阈值越小,可使危险货物运输风险降低;花费较多财力来达到客户的时效要求,也可提高客户满意度;在途运输时间越长,风险值也就越高。以此为运输企业和管理部门提供基础理论知识和多样化的决策方案。

关键词：危险货物公铁联运不确定环境混合智能算法参数变化分析

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考虑个体感知的公交接驳轨道交通范围确定

交通科技与经济 2024年第3期26卷 45-54页

作者：毕亚茹于晓桦杨大志田雨晗刘欣萍山东建筑大学交通工程学院济南250101

为提高轨道交通与公交接驳的有效性,对轨道交通的站点公交接驳范围进行研究。基于问卷调查数据,分析不同轨道交通段乘行时间场景下个体出行感知分布特征,包括出行心理分布特征和距离衰减特征,确定可接受接驳时间和轨道段乘行时间的相关... 详细信息

为提高轨道交通与公交接驳的有效性,对轨道交通的站点公交接驳范围进行研究。基于问卷调查数据,分析不同轨道交通段乘行时间场景下个体出行感知分布特征,包括出行心理分布特征和距离衰减特征,确定可接受接驳时间和轨道段乘行时间的相关性关系,采用非集计价格敏感度模型计算不同轨道段乘行时间场景下的公交接驳时空阈值。结果表明:可接受的公交接驳时间随轨道段乘行时间增长呈非线性增长,增长速度逐渐变缓,两者之间的关系可用对数模型拟合,R^(2)为0.83;出行者在轨道段乘行10 min、20 min、30 min、40 min、60 min和80 min时,可接受的接驳公交服务范围分别为1.65 km、2.4 km、3.51 km、4.86 km、5.79 km和6.36 km;以济南市地铁2号为例,计算19个轨道车站的公交接驳范围,其中位于城市外围区域的轨道站点公交接驳范围相对较大。

关键词：交通工程公交接驳范围非集计价格敏感度模型轨道段乘行时间个体感知距离衰减模型