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Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

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research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2023年第10期23卷 367-386页

作者： ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.J.Butler rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum david r.legates Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim LászlóSzarka Víctor M.Velasco Herrera Hong Yan Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental research and Earth Science(CErES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science(EPSS) SopronHungary retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmöSweden retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnológica NacionalColón 332San Nicolás(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Ionosfera Atmosfera Neutra y Magnetosfera(LIANM)Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologíaUniversidad Nacional de TucumánAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumánArgentina Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas—Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) 4000 TucumánArgentina Faculty of Geography Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway Professor Emeritus College of EarthOceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia21I-80126 NaplesItaly retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromsøNorway Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacán04510México D.F.México State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China Department of Mathematics and Physics Shaoxing UniversityShaoxing 312000China

Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly *** Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data *** compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear *** argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution *** also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were ***,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et *** confirmed for all five ST data ***,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar-terrestrial relations Earth

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate

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research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2021年第6期21卷 131-198页

作者： ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.John Butler rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum david r.legates Sebastian Liming Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim Laszlo Szarka Harry van Loon Victor M.Velasco Herrera richard C.Willson 晏宏 Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental research and Earth Science(CErES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmoSweden retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comision de Investigaciones Cientlficas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnologica NationalColpn 332San Nicolas(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Fisica de la Atmosfera Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologlaUniversidad National de TucumanAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumanArgentina Instituto de Fisica del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientficas y Tecnicas-Universidad Nacional de Tucuman) 4000 TucumanArgentina Faculty of Geography LomonosovMoscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway College of Earth Oceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Institute for Hydrography Geoecology and Climate SciencesHauptstra/3e 476315 AgeriSwitzerland Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico nComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia2180126 NaplesItaly retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromspNorway ELKH Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science 9400 SopronCsatkai utca 6-8Hungary retired formerly National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacan04510Mexico D.F.Mexico Active Cavity radiometer Irradiance Monitor(ACrIM) CoronadoCA 92118USA State Key Laboratory of Loe

In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both *** different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the *** of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature *** standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier ***,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th *** each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares *** role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time *** all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so be

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar terrestrial relations (Sun:)sunspots Sun:faculae,plages

Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model

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Science Bulletin 2015年第15期60卷 1378-1390页

作者： Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Willie W.-H. Soon david r. legates William M. Briggs Science and Public Policy Institute Haymarket VA 20169 USA Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Cambridge MA02138 USA Department of Geography University of Delaware Newark DE19716 USA New York NY 10021 USA

richardson et al.(Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al.(Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors' choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC's choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC's sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature *** the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity,subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focusedmodel need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models.

关键词：气候模式还原气候敏感性气候模型价值全球变暖参数选择 IPCC

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后新自由主义时代中国规划理论的范式转变

城市规划学刊 2009年第5期 1-13页

作者：张庭伟 richard legates 伊利诺斯(芝加哥)大学大城市研究所亚洲和中国研究中心美国旧金山州立大学城市研究系

当今,世界的经济危机已经引导人们进入一个新的时代——后新自由主义时代。在回顾规划理论的发展历史及评论新自由主义理论的基础上,提出后新自由主义时代中国规划理论框架的一些要点,以供中国规划师参考。集权和分权的平衡,政府力和市... 详细信息

当今,世界的经济危机已经引导人们进入一个新的时代——后新自由主义时代。在回顾规划理论的发展历史及评论新自由主义理论的基础上,提出后新自由主义时代中国规划理论框架的一些要点,以供中国规划师参考。集权和分权的平衡,政府力和市场力的平衡,经济增长和社会发展的平衡是后新自由主义时代规划理论范式的中心问题。

关键词：后新自由主义时代规划理论中国规划理论

Understanding China's Urbanization: The Great Demographic, Spatial, Economic, and Social Transformation

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China City Planning review 2018年第1期27卷 79-79页

作者： Zhang Li richard legates Zhao Min Liu Jinxin

Year:2016Publisher:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited ISBN:9781783474738(432 pages,in English)China’s urbanization is one of the great earth-changing phenomena in recent *** way in which China continues to urbanize will have a critical impact on the world economy,global climate change,international relations,and a host of other critical ***-

关键词： Transformation Economic Spatial urbanization have everyone disciplines elsewhere demographic interested

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奶牛繁殖泌乳研究发展综述

畜牧与饲料科学 1991年第4期19卷 36-37,45页

作者： J.E.legates 田靫

过去和现在的研究繁殖和泌乳,是奶牛的两个重要功能,二者同等重要,且与内分泌有关。繁殖对繁殖知识的了解是始于1678年de Graaf 对卵泡的描述及在1679年 Leeu—wenhoek 对精子的首次观察。随后,显微镜及其技术的发展对繁殖过程中的精子... 详细信息

过去和现在的研究繁殖和泌乳,是奶牛的两个重要功能,二者同等重要,且与内分泌有关。繁殖对繁殖知识的了解是始于1678年de Graaf 对卵泡的描述及在1679年 Leeu—wenhoek 对精子的首次观察。随后,显微镜及其技术的发展对繁殖过程中的精子和卵子的作用有了进一步的了解。

关键词：奶牛繁殖泌乳量乳成分冷冻精液胚胎移植超数排卵精液冷冻保存发情控制初情期繁殖过程

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为中国规划师的西方城市规划文献导读

城市规划学刊 2007年第4期 17-38页

作者：理查德·勒盖茨张庭伟美国旧金山州立大学城市研究系美国伊利诺大学芝加哥分校大都市研究所亚洲和中国研究中心

梳理了100多年以来西方城市规划和城市研究的主要文献,对200余本著作进行了简要介绍,为中国城市规划和城市研究学者提供了一个西方城市规划文献综述的框架。

关键词：西方城市规划文献导读

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面向中国整体城镇化发展的规划(二)

城市规划通讯 2017年第17期 17-17页

作者： richard legates 高捷旧金山州立大学

从城镇化水平与GDP指标相关性分析来看,发达国家的城镇化水平较高,例如,英国和美国的城镇化率分别是82%和83%,而经济贫困国家的城镇化水平较低,比如布隆迪城镇化率大约只有20%。因此,也有人认为中国应该通过提升城镇化水平来促进经济发... 详细信息

从城镇化水平与GDP指标相关性分析来看,发达国家的城镇化水平较高,例如,英国和美国的城镇化率分别是82%和83%,而经济贫困国家的城镇化水平较低,比如布隆迪城镇化率大约只有20%。因此,也有人认为中国应该通过提升城镇化水平来促进经济发展。但是从中国既有与布隆迪城镇化水平相近的地区,也有像天津这样比肩英、美发达国家的城市。历史经验证明,发展中国家的经济增长一般都会带来城镇化水平的提高,而反之却未必成立。实际上,一些国家的城镇化伴随着经济的增长和繁荣。

关键词：城镇化率城乡统筹发展