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Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

International Journal of Digital Earth 2018年第3期11卷 246-263页

作者： Muhammad Al-Amin Hoque Stuart Phinn chris roelfsema Iraphne Childs Remote Sensing Research Centre School of Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of QueenslandBrisbaneAustralia Department of Geography and Environment Jagannath UniversityDhakaBangladesh Queensland Centre for Population Research School of Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of QueenslandBrisbaneAustralia

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities *** appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation *** study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales,and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal *** storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods.A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change *** resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling *** developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of *** result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return *** study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10%in every return *** findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.

关键词： Tropical cyclone geospatial techniques hazard risk climate change

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