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An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in china

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第3期17卷 280-288页

作者： WEI Fengying (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china) State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in china for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.

关键词： rainfall-band pattern interannual variation interdecadal variation integration estimation model.

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2 1. National meteorological Center, beijing 100081,china 2. chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china National meteorological Center Beijing China chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2002. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2000, including the 24—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

Numerical experiments for the impacts of temperature and precipitation variation on the growth and development of winter wheat

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1993年第2期5卷 194-200页

作者： Zhang YuAgrometeorological Research Center, chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china Agrometeorological Research Center Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 10081 China. China

The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province in the east china. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.

关键词： climate change winter wheat CERES-wheat model.

Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1021-1035页

作者： LIU YunYun1,2,3 & DING YiHui2 1 chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china 2 National Climate Center, beijing 100081, china 3 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing China National Climate Center Beijing China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

Based on the Indian and chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern china. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South china Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion

关键词： Indian summer monsoon (ISM) the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley teleconnection mode

Interdecadal trend turning of global terrestrial temperature and precipitation during 1951-2002

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第11期18卷 1383-1393页

作者： Xiaohui Shi Xiangde Xu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,chinese academy of meteorological sciences,beijing 100081,china State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

A grid-by-grid counting of interdecadal trend turning(ITT)of annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)and total precipitation at 67,359 terrestrial grids in the period 1951-2002 is *** analysis of the last ITTs of SAT and total precipitation in the period,in the context of both occurrence time and linear trends after the breakpoint,indicates that a warming trend has become highly significant across most reagent of the world in the late 20th *** terrestrial grids have recorded an ITT of total precipitation in either the 1970s or 1980s,and 45.7% of the terrestrial grids in the study have seen a decreasing trend in total annual precipitation after the break- point,with the remaining 54.3% having experienced an increasing ***,global terrestrial regions have experienced either an increasingly warm and dry climate or an increasingly warm and wet *** analysis of ITT of regional mean SAT and total pre- cipitation in 22 regions shows that the Northern American continent has become increasingly warm and dry after the last interdecadal ***,the African continent has become increasingly warm and wet,with both Europe and most of Asia having the same *** South America and the West of Australia have experienced an opposite trend in climate,becoming increasingly cold and wet.

关键词： Global terrene Surface air temperature Precipitation Interdecadal trend turning

The least-square method in complex number domain

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第3期16卷 307-312页

作者： GU Xiangqian, KANG Hongwen and CAO Hongxing (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china) State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The classical least-square method was extended from the real number into the complex number domain, which is called the complex least-square method. The mathematical derivation and its applications show that the complex least-square method is different from one that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated with the classical least-square, by which the actual least-square estimation cannot be obtained in practice. Applications of this new method to an arbitrarily given series and to the precipitation in rainy season at 160 meteorological stations in china mainland show advantages of this method over other conventional statistical models.

关键词： complex least square Fourier transformation forecast in rainy season.

Analysis of 1989/1990 main physical fields for air-sea coupled system in the tropical western Pacific

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1993年第1期12卷 93-105页

作者： Yao Huadong Jiang Dayong and Liu Yimin chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing 100081 China China

In this paper, the marine ship observation data sets in the seventh (October 16-December 4. 1989) and eighth (June 1-July 16, 1990) cruises of PRC -US tropical ocean and global atmosphere (TOGA) joint scientific investigation in the tropical western Pacific are used to analyze the elements such as sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind field, fluxes and net heat budget, which are important physical parameters of underlying earth's surface influencing the global mean circulation evolution on seasonal and interannual time scales. These diagnostic analyses are very beneficial to the understanding of the regional climate characteristics and the air-sea interaction mechanism, and the improving of surface flux parameterizations and regional or global climate model.

关键词： Analysis of 1989/1990 main physical fields for air-sea coupled system in the tropical western Pacific Nino

Role of atmospheric heat source/sink over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in quasi-4-year oscillation of atmosphere-land-ocean interaction

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chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第3期46卷 241-245页

作者： ZHAO Ping & CHEN LongxunDepartment of Geophysics, Peking University, beijing 100871, china chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china Department of Geophysics Peking University Beijing China chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing China

Using 1961-1995 monthly atmospheric apparent heat source/sink over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP)and reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR, and 1961 ?1994 monthly SST of UK/GISST2, the statistical study is undertaken on the QXP heat source/sink in relation to both atmospheric circulation in Asia and El Nino/La Nina events. It is discovered that there exists noticeable interaction in aquasi-4-year period among the of the QXP, low-levelmeridional winds east of the QXP, low-level zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific, SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the circulation at mid and high latitudes north of the QXP. They have difference in phase. The cold source intensity of the QXP in winter favours a low-level meridional wind anomaly to prevail in the mainland of china and its coast east of the QXP and to last until the subsequent autumn. The wind anomaly can induce a low-level zonal wind anomaly of the tropic Pacific that finally affects an El Nino/La Nina event in the autumn and subsequent winter.

关键词： Qinghai-Xizang Plateau thermal effect interannual variation atmosphere-land-ocean interaction.

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2,BIAN LinGen3 & DAI YongJiu2 1 meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,china 2 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,beijing Normal University,beijing 100875,china 3 chinese academy of meteorological sciences,beijing 100081,china meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis