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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第3期12卷 218-225页

作者： ZHU Lin chen haishan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science& Technology

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)逐日气象资料研究了我国江淮冬季降雪的时空变化及其与斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型(SCAND)的可能联系。结果表明:江淮冬季降雪表现出空间一致的年际变化,SCAND与江淮地区冬季降雪异常关系密切。江淮冬季... 详细信息

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)逐日气象资料研究了我国江淮冬季降雪的时空变化及其与斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型(SCAND)的可能联系。结果表明:江淮冬季降雪表现出空间一致的年际变化,SCAND与江淮地区冬季降雪异常关系密切。江淮冬季降雪偏多通常对于SCAND正位相,500hPa阻塞高压、东亚大槽加强,有利于冷空气活动增强,江淮地区垂直运动增强,水汽输送增强;降雪偏少则对应SCAND负位相。研究结果有助于深入理解江淮冬季降雪异常的相关机理。

关键词：冬季降雪江淮地区大气环流斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型

东亚夏季风主模态的再认识及其热力驱动因子:基于25个季风指数的比较分析（英文）

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第4期12卷 278-285页

作者： YE Mao chen haishan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim、NCEP和JRA-55三套再分析资料对25个常用东亚夏季风指数进行分类,在此基础上探讨各类季风指数与降水、环流异常的联系及其热力驱动因子。结果表明东亚夏季风指数可以分为两类:第一类指数表征东亚夏季风的年... 详细信息

基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim、NCEP和JRA-55三套再分析资料对25个常用东亚夏季风指数进行分类,在此基础上探讨各类季风指数与降水、环流异常的联系及其热力驱动因子。结果表明东亚夏季风指数可以分为两类:第一类指数表征东亚夏季风的年际模态,与低纬环流异常和EAP遥相关型关系密切,对应夏季降水的经向三级型分布,主要受热带海温异常的影响;而第二类指数表征东亚夏季风的年代际模态,与中高纬环流异常和EU遥相关型紧密相关,对应夏季降水的经向偶极型分布,其异常信号主要位于极区和欧亚大陆中高纬,体现了欧亚大陆热力异常对东亚夏季气候的影响。

关键词：东亚夏季风指数季风主模态夏季降水异常大气环流异常热力驱动因子

Impact of Antecedent Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Super Meiyu Event in 2020

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 234-247页

作者： Yinshuo Dong haishan chen Xuan Dong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044

In the summer of 2020,a super Meiyu event occurred in the Yangtze River basin(YRB),causing enormous economic losses and human casualties.Recent studies have investigated the possible causes of this super Meiyu event from the perspective of anomalous atmospheric circulation activities and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies;however,the influence of land surface processes has not garnered considerable attention.This study investigates the possible contributions of land surface processes to this extreme event based on observational analysis and numerical simulations,and shows that antecedent soil moisture(SM)anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula(ICP)may have had a vital influence on the super Meiyu in 2020.Negative SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the surface temperature and sensible heat flux.The“memory”of soil allowed the anomalies to persist into the Meiyu period.The heating of the lower atmosphere by the surface strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high,which caused an anomalous anticyclone from the ICP to Northwest Pacific and thus enhanced the southwesterly winds and vertical motion over the YRB.Consequently,the water vapor flux and convergence were strengthened.Sensitivity experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model further confirmed the results of observational analysis and indicated that the warm air heated by the ICP surface significantly warmed the lower troposphere from the ICP to Northwest Pacific under the influence of the background wind,thus increasing the geopotential height and inducing an anticyclone.The results of the sensitivity experiments showed that the SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the precipitation by 10.6%from June to July over the YRB.These findings can improve our understanding of the mechanism of the super Meiyu event in 2020 and facilitate the prediction of extreme Meiyu events.

关键词： super Meiyu soil moisture Indo-China Peninsula surface heating

Impacts of Roof/Ground Mitigation Strategies on Improving the Urban Thermal Environment and Human Comfort over the Yangtze River Delta, China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 108-125页

作者： Hongyun MA Mi ZHANG haishan chen Yan WANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 Experimental Teaching Center for Meteorology and Environment Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal environment. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF), coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model(UCM), was used to study the impact of heat mitigation strategies. In addition, a 5-km resolution land-cover dataset for China(ChinaLC), which is based on satellite remote sensing data, was adjusted and used, and 18 groups of numerical experiments were designed, to increase the albedo and vegetation fraction of roof/ground parameters. The experiments were conducted for four heatwave events that occurred in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. The simulated results demonstrated that, for the single roof/ground schemes, the mitigation effects were directly proportional to the albedo and greening. Among all the experimental schemes, the superposed schemes presented better cooling effects. For the ground greening scheme, with similar net radiation flux and latent heat flux, its storage heat was lower than that of the roof greening scheme, resulting in more energy flux into the atmosphere, and its daytime cooling effect was not as good as that of the roof greening scheme. In terms of human thermal comfort(HTC), the improvement achieved by the ground greening scheme was better than any other single roof/ground schemes, because the increase in the relative humidity was small. The comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation effects of different schemes on the thermal environment presented in this paper provides a theoretical basis for improving the urban environment through rational urban planning and construction.

关键词： urban heat island human thermal comfort urban canopy mitigation strategies Yangtze River Delta Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF) Urban Canopy Model(UCM)

Urban Impact on Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation:A Numerical Study of Typhoon Rumbia(2018)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 988-1004页

作者： Xinguan DU haishan chen Qingqing LI Xuyang GE KLME/ILCEC/CIC-FEMD Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfall of Rumbia is strengthened by approximately 10% due to the urban impact near the landfall,whereas minor differences in outer-core rainfall are found when the urban impact is excluded. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that low-level upward motion is crucial for precipitation evolution, as both co-vary during landfall. Moreover, the frictionally induced upward motion plays a decisive role in enhancing the rainfall when the urban impacts are included.Urban surface friction can decelerate the tangential wind and therefore destroy the gradient balance and strengthen the radial wind within the boundary layer and thus can enhance upward motion. This study demonstrates that urban surface friction and related physical processes make the most significant contribution to landfalling TC rainfall enhancement.

关键词： landfalling tropical cyclone urban agglomeration quantitative diagnosis rainfall physical mechanisms surface friction

Seasonal Prediction of Extreme High-Temperature Days in Southwestern China Based on the Physical Precursors

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1212-1224页

作者： Zhiyi ZHOU Juan LI haishan chen Zhiwei ZHU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100086China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.

关键词： extreme high-temperature days southwestern China seasonal prediction predictability

Hybrid Methods for Computing the Streamfunction and Velocity Potential for Complex Flow Fields over Mesoscale Domains

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1417-1431页

作者： Jie CAO Qin XU haishan chen Shuping MA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies(CIMMS) University of OklahomaNorman 73072OklahomaUSA NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman 73069OklahomaUSA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Three types of previously used numerical methods are revisited for computing the streamfunctionψand velocity potentialχfrom the horizontal velocity v in limited domains.The first type,called the SOR-based method,uses a classical successive over-relaxation(SOR)scheme to computeψ(orχ)first with an arbitrary boundary condition(BC)and thenχ(orψ)with the BC derived from v.The second type,called the spectral method,uses spectral formulations to construct the inner part of(ψ,χ)-the inversion of(vorticity,divergence)with a homogeneous BC,and then the remaining harmonic part of(ψ,χ)with BCs from v.The third type,called the integral method,uses integral formulas to compute the internally induced(ψ,χ)-the inversion of domain-internal(vorticity,divergence)using the free-space Greenꞌs function without BCs and then the remaining harmonicψ(orχ)with BCs from v minus the internally-induced part.Although these methods have previously been successfully applied to flows in large-scale and synoptic-scale domains,their accuracy is compromised when applied to complex flows over mesoscale domains,as shown in this paper.To resolve this problem,two hybrid approaches,the integral-SOR method and the integral-spectral method,are developed by combining the first step of the integral method with the second step adopted from the SOR-based and spectral methods,respectively.Upon testing these methods on real-case complex flows,the integral-SOR method is significantly more accurate than the integral-spectral method,noting that the latter is still generally more accurate than the three previously-used methods.The integral-SOR method is recommended for future applications and diagnostic studies of complex flows.

关键词： streamfunction and velocity potential complex flow fields successive over-relaxation method mesoscale study

东亚地区土壤湿度次季节-季节模式预测技巧评估（英文）

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第6期12卷 467-474页

作者： ZHU Hanchen chen haishan ZHOU Yang DONG Xuan Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

利用次季节-季节(S2S)预测计划的五个数值模式历史回报,评估了东亚5~9月土壤湿度的模式预测技巧。发现在中国南方和东北,多数S2S模式对土壤湿度的有效预测可提前5~10天;在我国青藏高原和西北地区,仅有欧洲中心模式的有效预测能提前20天... 详细信息

利用次季节-季节(S2S)预测计划的五个数值模式历史回报,评估了东亚5~9月土壤湿度的模式预测技巧。发现在中国南方和东北,多数S2S模式对土壤湿度的有效预测可提前5~10天;在我国青藏高原和西北地区,仅有欧洲中心模式的有效预测能提前20天左右。一般来说,土壤湿润区的预测技巧好于干燥区,多数模式在9月的预测技巧高于其余月份。然而,模式间的预测技巧还存在较大的差异。此外,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对土壤湿度的S2S技巧也具有一定的影响,当发生厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件时,我国东部的土壤湿度预测技巧偏高(低)。与大气变量相比,土壤湿度的预测技巧明显偏低,说明陆面过程的次季节预测还有待进一步的提高。

关键词：土壤湿度次季节预测技巧评估东亚

再分析资料和CESM模式模拟的表层土壤湿度次季节变率

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2020年第1期13卷 34-40页

作者： WANG Yudan chen haishan ZHOU Yang DONG Xuan ZHU Siguang Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

利用欧洲中心(ERA-Interim)和美国气候预测系统(CFSR)再分析资料,结合地球系统模式CESM的模拟结果,考察了1979–2016年全球表层土壤湿度次季节变率的基本特征。在各个季节和所有资料中,土壤湿度均有明显的次季节变率,且有明显的区域和... 详细信息

利用欧洲中心(ERA-Interim)和美国气候预测系统(CFSR)再分析资料,结合地球系统模式CESM的模拟结果,考察了1979–2016年全球表层土壤湿度次季节变率的基本特征。在各个季节和所有资料中,土壤湿度均有明显的次季节变率,且有明显的区域和季节性差异。在中国东部、北美、南非、澳大利亚的夏季,土壤湿度有较大的次季节方差,CFSR和CESM中的土壤湿度变率强于ERA-Interim。通过谱分析,发现中国东部和南非的土壤湿度主要为10–30天的周期,北美和澳大利亚的土壤湿度同时具有10–30天和30–50天的周期。

关键词：土壤湿度次季节变率陆–气相互作用

Key regions where land surface processes shape the East Asian climate

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第3期15卷 64-66页

作者： haishan chen KLME/ILCEC/CIC-FEMD Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

陆气相互作用是影响东亚大气环流和气候的一个关键过程,受到了越来越多的关注.然而,关于陆面过程影响东亚气候的相关机理的理解还有待提升.在已有研究基础上,提出了陆面过程影响东亚气候研究值得关注的青藏高原,欧亚中高纬地区,中国东... 详细信息

陆气相互作用是影响东亚大气环流和气候的一个关键过程,受到了越来越多的关注.然而,关于陆面过程影响东亚气候的相关机理的理解还有待提升.在已有研究基础上,提出了陆面过程影响东亚气候研究值得关注的青藏高原,欧亚中高纬地区,中国东部季风区,中南半岛,中亚中纬度区域,西亚等6个关键区,期待为加强陆面过程与东亚气候研究提供一定参考.

关键词：陆面过程东亚气候关键区