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Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5℃and 2℃global warming scenarios

Geography and Sustainability 2024年第3期5卷 343-356页

作者： Wei Wei Shan Zou Weili Duan yaning chen Shuai Li Takahiro Sayama Jianyu Zhu State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesÜrümqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Science Beijing 100049China Aksu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem Aksu 843017China Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto UniversityKyoto 6110011Japan

The increase in extreme precipitation(EP)may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population in arid and semi-arid *** current research on the impact of EP on population in Central Asia(CA)is insufficient and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive ***,we opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)from ten Global Climate Models(GCMs),which were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6).By integrating population data in 2020 and 2050(SSP2 and SSP5),we investigated the future changes in EP and population exposure in CA under 1.5℃and 2℃global warming scenarios(GWSs).Our analysis indicates that EP in CA is projected to increase with global *** the SSP5-8.5,the maximum daily precipitation(Rx1day)exhibits an average response rate to global warming of 3.58%/K(1.99-4.06%/K).With rising temperatures,an increasing number of areas and populations in CA will be impacted by EP,especially in the Fergana *** 25%of the population(land area)in CA is exposed to Rx1day with increases of more than 8.31%(9.32%)under 1.5℃GWS and 14.18%(13.25%)under 2℃*** temperature rise can be effective in reducing population exposures to *** instance,limiting the temperature increase to 1.5℃instead of 2℃results in a 2.79%(1.75%-4.59%)reduction in population exposure to ***,we found that climate change serves as the predominant factor influencing the population exposure to EP,while the role of population redistribution,although relatively minor,should not be *** for prolonged drought,the role of population redistribution manifests negatively.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Global warming Population exposure Central Asia

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多头图注意机制的深度学习地铁客流预测方法

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铁道运输与经济 2024年第2期46卷 167-175页

作者：张阳陈燕玲福建工程学院交通运输学院福建福州350118 福建工程学院智能交通系统研究中心福建福州350118

挖掘地铁站点间的客流时空关联性是实现高精度地铁实时客流预测的关键。由于地铁网络中站点间客流的空间关联强弱性较为复杂且难以量化,从而导致客流预测过分依赖时间关联性。为克服该缺陷,提出一种多头图注意机制的深度学习地铁客流预... 详细信息

挖掘地铁站点间的客流时空关联性是实现高精度地铁实时客流预测的关键。由于地铁网络中站点间客流的空间关联强弱性较为复杂且难以量化,从而导致客流预测过分依赖时间关联性。为克服该缺陷,提出一种多头图注意机制的深度学习地铁客流预测方法,通过构建面向地铁网络的多头图注意机制对多个关联站点间的客流空间关联性进行学习,得出差异化权重值,量化目标站点与关联站点群之间的客流空间关联强弱性;同时,将多头图注意机制融入长短时记忆学习模型,以量化后的空间关联性数据为输入,结合地铁客流量的时间关联性实现客流预测。实验结果表明,所提出的方法可行、有效,能够提升地铁客流预测精度且预测结果优于经典预测方法。

关键词：地铁客流预测图注意机制长短时记忆神经网络客流时空关联性

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昆仑山北坡区域高质量发展面临的问题、机遇与挑战

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干旱区地理 2024年第5期47卷 733-740页

作者：陈亚宁朱成刚李稚方功焕中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室新疆乌鲁木齐830011

昆仑山北坡区域是新时代维护国家安全的重要战略部署区和“丝绸之路经济带”核心区关键通道,战略地位十分突出。但由于历史和自然的原因,该区域经济发展相对滞后。系统分析显示,昆仑山北坡区域目前存在的水资源利用上线偏低、水利工程... 详细信息

昆仑山北坡区域是新时代维护国家安全的重要战略部署区和“丝绸之路经济带”核心区关键通道,战略地位十分突出。但由于历史和自然的原因,该区域经济发展相对滞后。系统分析显示,昆仑山北坡区域目前存在的水资源利用上线偏低、水利工程建设严重滞后、城镇化进程缓慢、产业布局相对单一且缺少重要产业布局,以及区域高质量发展动能不足等问题,结合区域自然环境特点和发展机遇,提出加快构建经济带城市群体系,打造多产业协同发展的昆仑山北坡经济带,大幅提升水资源上线和水利工程管控能力,为昆仑山北坡农业提质增效提供水资源保障,系统打造昆仑山北坡农-林-牧复合基地,构建多元化食物供给体系,以能补水,提升资源综合利用效率,通过兵地优势互补、资源共享,加快推进昆仑山北坡经济带建设和高质量发展等建议。研究成果可为加快昆仑山北坡经济带生态安全和高质量发展提供科技支撑。

关键词：水资源利用水利工程建设农-林-牧复合基地兵地优势互补昆仑山北坡

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Effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2014年第2期8卷 309-318页

作者： Zhongsheng chen yaning chen State key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of Education East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China. For this purpose, precipitation and potential evaporation （PET） data from 5 meteorological stations and the runoff depth data from the Dashankou hydrological station in the headwater region of the Kaidu River from 1960 to 2009 were collected, then the trends and abrupt changes of precipitation, PET and runoff depth were analyzed by means of Mann-Kendall test （M-K test） and Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test （M-K-S test）, respectively. The runoff model driven by precipitation and PET was developed in this work and the sensitivity of runoff to climate fluctuation was simulated under different scenarios. Results showed that the annual precipitation and runoff depth both exhibited an increasing trend over the periods 1960-2009; however, this is not the case for the annual PET. The abrupt changes for annual precipitation, PETand runoff depth all occurred in the early 1990s. The established driving model could well reflect the compli- cated nonlinear relationship among runoff depth, precipitation and PET. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the precipitation had a positive effect on the runoff depth, opposite to what were observed between PET and runoff, and the runoff depth was more sensitive to precipitation than to PET in the headwater region of the Kaidu River.

关键词： climate fluctuation driving model runoffdepth sensitivity analysis

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塔里木河流域水储量变化及绿洲生态安全评估

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干旱区地理 2024年第1期47卷 1-14页

作者：张齐飞陈亚宁孙从建向燕芸郝海超山西师范大学地理科学学院山西太原030031 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室新疆乌鲁木齐830011 山西财经大学公共管理学院山西太原030006 华东师范大学地理科学学院上海200241

绿洲是干旱、半干旱地区最具生态敏感性和独特性的景观类型,是维系人类生存和社会经济发展的重要区域。然而,在气候变化与人类活动双重影响下,干旱区水资源及其绿洲生境正发生剧烈变化。基于2000—2020年MODIS、GRACE卫星数据、土地利... 详细信息

绿洲是干旱、半干旱地区最具生态敏感性和独特性的景观类型,是维系人类生存和社会经济发展的重要区域。然而,在气候变化与人类活动双重影响下,干旱区水资源及其绿洲生境正发生剧烈变化。基于2000—2020年MODIS、GRACE卫星数据、土地利用数据和气象观测资料,通过计算植被覆盖度,估算植被初级生产力(NPP)和遥感生态指数(RSEI),系统分析了过去20 a塔里木河(简称塔河)流域陆地水储量和绿洲的动态变化并完成了绿洲区生态安全评估。结果表明:(1)2002—2020年塔河流域陆地水储量以0.27 mm·月-1的速率减少,空间上塔河流域陆地水储量在北部和西部区域显著减少,而在南部区域显著增加。(2)2000—2020年塔河流域绿洲面积显著增加,面积增加6.49%(0.42×10^(4)km^(2))。塔河流域整体生态环境呈转好趋势,生态等级由较差级别转为中等级别,生态改善区占总流域面积的69%,而生态退化区面积不足5%。塔河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)由2000年的0.13增至2020年的0.16,近20 a植被覆盖度增加36.79%,NPP增加31.55%。(3)气温升高和降水增多的同时伴随下游河川径流增加,这进一步加剧了塔河流域陆地水资源储量的时空差异性,但人类活动仍是绿洲显著扩张最根本的原因。

关键词：陆地水储量绿洲动态变化生态安全评估塔里木河流域

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气候变化对天山地区极端径流的影响—以开都河为例

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灌溉排水学报 2024年第4期43卷 105-112页

作者：郑鹏陈亚宁王怀军杨余辉新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院乌鲁木齐830054 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室乌鲁木齐830011 淮阴师范学院地理科学与规划学院江苏淮安223300

【目的】揭示天山地区极端径流演变规律,预估不同气候变化情景下天山地区极端径流特征。【方法】基于Sen slope、MK检验、Pettitt检验、概率分布函数、SWAT模型和GCM模式分析极端径流演变特征。【结果】1959—2018年,开都河流域年、夏... 详细信息

【目的】揭示天山地区极端径流演变规律,预估不同气候变化情景下天山地区极端径流特征。【方法】基于Sen slope、MK检验、Pettitt检验、概率分布函数、SWAT模型和GCM模式分析极端径流演变特征。【结果】1959—2018年,开都河流域年、夏、秋和冬季径流呈不显著增加趋势,春季径流呈显著增加趋势,径流变化与降水的相关性大于与同期气温的相关性。极端径流频率、强度和持续时间呈增加趋势,初洪时间呈显著推迟趋势。Log-Pearson3函数对极端径流的模拟表现最优,50 a重现期洪水次数、高流量最长持续时间、平均峰值流量重现水平分别为7.09次、79.04 d和180.04 m^(3)/s。未来气候变化情景下,洪水次数增加,极端强度(平均年最大流量)增大,持续时间(高流量最长持续时间、高流量平均持续时间)和平均强度(平均极端径流流量、平均峰值流量)减小,初洪时间呈提前趋势,且最高和最低极端径流强度(平均极端径流流量、平均峰值流量、平均年最大流量)重现水平分别发生在SSP245和SSP370情景。【结论】气候变化对天山极端径流具有重要影响,未来该地区将经历更频繁的极端径流事件和更为严重的单次特大洪水,研究结果对制定气候变化适应策略和水资源管理方案具有重要的指导意义。

关键词：气候变化极端径流 SWAT模型天山开都河

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Physiological response of Tamarix ramosissima under water stress along the lower reaches of Tarim River

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第9期51卷 1123-1129页

作者： ZHUANG Li chen yaning Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

Tamarix ramosissima is one of the con- structive species growing on both sides of Tarim River which is favorable to constituting a natural bar- rier containing local deserts and protecting the oasis. By analyzing characteristics of the main physiological indexes, such as chlorophyll, soluble sugar, proline (Pro), malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismu- tase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), C3-gibberellins (GA3) and abscisic acid (ABA), at different sections with different water tables in the lower reaches of Tarim River, it has been found that these physiological indexes have close correlations with water tables. In addition, the rational ecological, coercing and critical water tables of T. ramosissima are 2-4 m, 6 m and 10 m, respectively, which pro- vides an important theoretical basis for the ecological conservation of extremely arid regions.

关键词：生理指数地下水位塔里木河新疆 Tamarix ramosissima

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Effects of land use and cover change on surface wind speed in China

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Journal of Arid Land 2019年第3期11卷 345-356页

作者： LI Yupeng chen yaning LI Zhi State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The surface wind speed(SWS)is affected by both large-scale circulation and land use and cover change(LUCC).In China,most studies have considered the effect of large-scale circulation rather than LUCC on *** this study,we evaluated the effects of LUCC on the SWS decrease during 1979-2015 over China using the observation minus reanalysis(OMR)*** were two key findings:(1)Observed wind speed declined significantly at a rate of 0.0112 m/(s·a),whereas ERA-Interim,which can only capture the inter-annual variation of observed data,indicated a gentle downward *** effects of LUCC on SWS were distinct and caused a decrease of 0.0124 m/(s·a)in SWS;(2)Due to variations in the characteristics of land use types across different regions,the influence of LUCC on SWS also *** observed wind speed showed a rapid decline over cultivated land in Northwest China,as well as a decrease in China’s northeastern and eastern plain regions due to the ***,in the Tibetan Plateau,the impact of LUCC on wind speed was only slight and can thus be ignored.

关键词： surface wind speed(SWS) land use and cover change(LUCC) observation minus reanalysis(OMR) normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) China

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Evolvement Characteristics of Population and Economic Gravity Centers in Tarim River Basin,Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2013年第6期23卷 765-772页

作者： WANG Yang chen yaning LI Zhi College of Resources and Environmental Science Xinjiang University State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of Sciences

Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.

关键词： regional gravity center model population gravity center economic gravity center Tarim River Basin

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Quantifying the impact of mountain precipitation on runoff in Hotan River, northwestern China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2020年第3期14卷 568-577页

作者： Baofu Li Jili Zheng Xun Shi yaning chen School of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal UniversityRizhao276826China Rizhao Key Laboratory of Territory Spatial Planning and Ecological Construction Rizhao276826China Department of Geography Dartmouth CollegeHanoverNH03755USA State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi830011China

It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the impact of mountain precipitation on inland river runoff in data scarce *** on the corrected TRMM precipitation and runoff data,a variety of statistical methods were used to identify which areas of precipitation have an important impact on runoff in the Hotan River Basin,and to evaluate the effects that precipitation changes have on runoff at low,mid,high,and extremely high altitudes of mountainous *** results showed that:1)From 1998 to 2015,the annual runoff showed a fluctuating upward trend with a rate of 11.21×10^8 m^3/10 a(P<0.05).Runoff in every season also had an increasing trend,with summer runoff the most significant at a rate of 6.09×10^8 m^3/10 a.2)The annual runoff and precipitation changes had certain synchronization,with a correlation coefficient of 0.45(P<0.05).Among them,the correlations between precipitation and runoff changes were highest at low and mid-altitudes,with coefficients of 0.62 and 0.55,respectively(P<0.05).3)65.95%of the regional precipitation at low altitudes and 48.34%at high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff(P<0.05),while only 38.84%and 26.58%of regional precipitation levels at mid-and extremely high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff.4)The annual precipitation change in the basin was 1%,which would cause the annual runoff to change by 0.24%.In 1998-2015,the change of annual runoff caused by precipitation change at high altitudes was largest at a rate of−6.01%;the change rates of annual runoff caused by precipitation change in the low,mid-,and extremely high altitudes were−3.66%,−3.62%,and−3.67%,*** results have significant scientific guidance for water resource management in arid basins.

关键词： precipitation mountainous areas runoff TRMM arid region of northwestern China

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